Best Gambling Cities in the US - Where Everything Is
Best Gambling Cities in the US - Where Everything Is
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There is a prevailing mis-understanding among people fresh to the market that you can buy and sell as much as you want at the "market price." This is false. You are buying and selling from real people or algorithms that believe they can scalp your order. The idealized scenario is that GME rallies, Melvin covers, and everyone at reddit gets out at the top. This represents a misunderstanding of market mechanics. Melvin will cover before we truly know it, and the crash will happen as quick as the rally. So with recent events, you must ask yourself:
Who is Your Counterparty?
Nothing is a sure bet. How confident are you that your counterparty is who you think it is? Thousands of redditors & new traders beyond have been buying stocks fully confident that Melvin Capital hasn't exited their trade. This is also supported by some analysis provided by two different firms, although their estimates differ some amount. Confounded in this is the interpretation of the data: Does this include market makers and dealers that are short stock but covered with calls or options deltas? Is their information fully accurate in an event the likes of which has never happened? It's tough to know for sure.
Know Everyone's Hand
Your guess on how much they've covered and when they covered has a massive effect on how you perceive the value of this trade. Buying if you think Melvin has $10b notional to cover is a much better bet than if they only have $2b to cover. You also have to consider how much notional the rest of the market has bought in anticipation of a squeeze. The difference between the two represents your effective edge. Remember, we don't actually know Melvin's current position. We don't know what's going on behind closed doors. We only know the hand they're showing us via media. Has their clearing firm taken over? Has a much bigger collection of firms absorbed the position? Have they been buying since Monday? Have they covered and have new funds entered the space at a much better level? You are fighting Goliath at a poker table in the city of Gath. The pot is worth $25 billion dollars. Ken Griffin has never lost. Melvin's prime brokers Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche are not used to losing (well, Deutsche is). They will do whatever it takes to take the pot from you and leave you holding the bag. They will not blink twice because there is a lot of fucking money on the line.
Know What Can Go Wrong
Nobody could have guessed everything that happened this week. Prepare yourself for the unexpected. Your brokerage will undoubtedly close out your position at the worst possible time. The stock could be halted for days. You could be assigned on ITM options. Your stock could get delisted. Your stock may get diluted.
Only Spend What You're Willing to Lose
This one is self explanatory. Your investment could go to zero. Even if you think you make money on every trade, if your bet size is 100%, the long term value of your portfolio is zero.
Don't Take Out Loans on Emotional Capital
If you are new, you really don't know the gut-wrenching, stomach-turning feeling of seeing the possibility of your net liquidity hitting zero or negative. It fucking sucks. You just know the highs. You're buying along the speculative frenzy and frantic rallies, wrapped in anti-billionaire & pro-underdog themes. It may even feel good to think that a guy who cut his teeth at a firm notorious for an insider trading scandal is getting his comeuppance. We love the feeling. If you are fully invested financially & emotionally, you are completely overleveraged and will pay the price. Make feeling good your goal, and set limits that you can stomach. There are several feel-good stories of people making life-changing money to pay off their student loans or their family members' surgeries. Please think twice about this, and only spend what you can afford to lose. If placing a bet makes the difference between your pet living or dying, you may have a gambling problem. These were success stories because they got in at a much better level and could have had a much sadder ending. Secondly, don't take it personal. There are people on the other side of your trades, your brokerage support line, the subreddit, the media. They are all playing their own hand to the best of their knowledge. It's easy to blame a broker, yell at their support desk, hate-tweet at a company, or even rage-text that guy you know who develops APIs at ETrade. A lot of people across the industry are rooting for you. Fuck, even Ted Cruz and AOC are rooting for you, because this transcends politics. If you're mad at Melvin Capital or Ken Griffin or the guys who crashed the economy in 2008, keep it that way. They will try and misdirect your anger in every single direction: brokerages, the media, and reddit. If your enemies are a few guys at the top holding a $25b short position and moving levers, keep it that way. Thirdly, if you don't want to be a human being for the sake of the person on the other side, be a human being for your wallet's sake. You make better financial decisions in the absence of emotions.
Note: BlackBerry is NOT a cyber security company. They are a security company. Revenue does not care about your AI driven autonomous machine learning EV car with DDs. People are using these terms loosely. A quick lookup for interviews with John Chen would prove that he explicitly avoids these terms as they do not define nor matter to the products/revenue of BlackBerry. QNX revenue does not depend on any of these terms, it's on installation on any device. This includes the space station, of which there is 1 of with obviously non-recurring revenue. Buying based on these basis would be gambling. Bull:
Business transformation: BlackBerry is now a software company, starting the transformation in 2015. The focus is security, the general term.
5 Products:
QNX: Embedded system OS.
Multi-OS housing: It has the capability to allow for multiple OSs on a single chip.
Real-time availability/software prioritization: Not all pieces of software operate on the same priority. Steering/braking would be higher priority than media, and QNX allows for that. Even if the thread/core is shared with other applications, when high priority software is requesting a resource it will be prioritized to ensure reliability.
Resource sharing: CPU, RAM, and GPU resource sharing between different applications capability. Two applications can share the same CPU core and bump each other based on prioritization.
Why not Linux? QNX has the highest certification for security available. Linux does not. CEOs would want to avoid liability and this certification allows for that.
Device agnostic: It can be installed on any device, not just cars. Any IoT and offline device can use QNX.
QNX Hypervisor: Consolidate multiple OSs on a single SoC using virtualization
SoC: System on a chip. Instead of using multiple ECUs, which is what car manufacturers currently do, they can use one single chip to run multiple high priority applications and multiple OSs. This is what Tesla does now.
Virtualization: Running an OS in a virtual environment. Think Linux environment inside of Windows. This helps with debugging for developers without having to have the actual hardware.
IVY: Scalable cloud-connected software platform for vehicles.
What is it a solution for? When a vehicle manufacturer wants a way to transmit the QNX/OS data safely, normalize it, and visualize it/interact with it. It also allows car manufacturers to own the data, unlike other OSs.
Scalable: AWS servers are capable of handling the load from many endpoints.
Software platform: There is currently no centralized software ecosystem for vehicles. IVY is providing that.
Non-BB developers would be able to use an SDK to develop applications on IVY for infotainment/general apps/others. IVY will also use ML to gain insight on unrecognized patterns by developers. An example of this is detecting if a car slipped, without having the developer connect multiple sensors to figure out if that event happened.
50/50 joint effort on revenue and effort to develop the ecosystem. Using AWS's knowledge in AI/ML for calculated sensors (slip, driver on seat, etc)
Usage by other vendors: A city can connect to the data from vehicles and detect when ice/slipping is happening. If brakes are getting overheated coming from a high elevation area. If a car had an accident, etc. An insurance company can provide an app to give discounts similar to the currently implemented OBD-2 readers. A maintenance provider can also connect to this data and check if an error is specific to maintenance, malpractice, or general misuse.
Spark: Endpoint management. Basically API security. Did not delve far into this, basic info.
Unified Endpoint Security: This is the endpoint where a laptop/phone/IoT device hits. It provides encryption and security around that. Continuous authentication is a part of it, where a device is learning the user behavior using ML and continuously checking if the behavior matches the original owner; if not, lock the device.
Unified Endpoint Management: Basically managing your API for devices.
Zero trust: I think this is specifically talking about continuous authentication. Basically, it's not an authenticate once and forget it. It's constantly tracking behavior to verify the user is the authenticated user.
AtHoc: Non-enterprise communication system.
Target customers: Government, healthcare, education, etc.
Solution: A communication system targeting non-enterprise businesses; specifically for Event management, cross organizational communication/collaboration, mass notifications.
Who does this benefit? You've seen the hacks in healthcare/educational/governmental sector. This is specifically for them.
SecuSUITE: Phone application to allow employees to use work related data in personal devices without cross communication (between personal and work data).
End to end encryption.
Separation of concerns between personal and work data. Employers CANNOT access your personal data.
Used by NATO; doesn't carry much value in my book but maybe in yours.
Customer oriented solutions: As you've seen in the products above, some products overlap and are just names to target specific customers. It allows customers to easily understand what product could solve their issue. Continuous authentication is a great example of this: Their customer complained that they kept re-authenticating, so they designed a solution allowing them to authenticate once and using ML they learned their behavior and can continuously check if the user is the owneauthenticated user. This kind of passion in leadership is good for business.
Liability: QNX has the highest security rating available. Most CEOs want to avoid liability when it comes to security, using QNX would help them avoid that in a similar way cloud services help them avoid being blamed for hacking.
Leadership: BBs leadership isn't one to play on famous words to drive the stock up. John Chen explicitly states this in his interviews and says they are a security company. Not cyber, doesn't mention AI or whatever. He explicitly avoids meme words and understands what the point of BBs business is.
Where I think growth can be made:
QNX in more cars. They can capitalize on the idea of less ECUs = less cost for OEMs + security.
IVY usage by OEMs along with QNX.
IVY ecosystem. Maybe application billing?
Professional services (support) for the products listed.
AtHoc increased market share in more governmental/healthcare/educational entities.
SecuSUITE for more enterprise customers with the idea being saving employers money from purchasing work phones for employees, and worrying about securing them.
Bear:
Revenue: It is not yet based on a subscription/usage basis. You can only produce so many cars, and they don't give an insight on how much do they charge per car for QNX. Anywhere from $2 - $20 is what was mentioned in transcripts. This is a growth area, but not at a trajectory that's excellent. IVY does work on a subscription/usage basis, but IVY can be used WITHOUT QNX. I'm worried about this, but still see it as an area that will generate revenue in the range of $400 MM - $600 MM at the price of $20 per 30M cars. The 30M per year is based on the listing of their customers and their yearly production rates. Keep in mind I stated any device, this does not include trucks or other IoT devices.
Market share: These are relatively new products. J.P. Morgan pointed this out as a priority for growth. This could end up not working out and growth never happens. This is a relatively low risk due to QNX and IVY providing SO MUCH value for car manufacturers Vs. other products in the market.
Patent revenue: They sold a chunk of their no longer relevant patents to Huawei. This makes up a small (<= 32%) of their revenue and is a one time sale. The coming quarter could be equal or less to the last quarter revenue due to either other sales making up the lost revenue from patents, or coming up short. It could come higher if they sold more services, but due to COVID and knowing that many car manufacturers have lowered their production due to chip shortage, the next quarter will most likely be lower.
VW.os: VW is making their own OS. VW.os is what they're calling it. They're currently using QNX, but that revenue could potentially stop. Personally I don't believe VW is capable of doing that. It's a marketing hype. Their companies are not capable of good collaboration or good implementation based on what I've read and researched (can't find article right now), but it's something to be concerned about.
QNX success: While IVY could be using QNX, it does NOT depend on it. There is potential for OEMs to use IVY without QNX. I think this is a low risk, but still risk. 19 OEMs are already using QNX.
Lack of Answers: I can't get much out of their earnings call. They don't delve into pricing for QNX, how they plan to grow it besides getting more car manufacturers and more cars post Corona. How they plan to do recurring revenue. A breakdown of each revenue segment would be helpful, but I don't see that either and there is hesitancy to delve into it.
Prediction: I think QNX can become a $1B revenue per year alone. $2B revenue per year as a company is not far fetched. Without a subscription/usage based model, it is difficult to see how growth can go beyond that. BB is good in 2-5 years, not this year. I can see their revenue growing to potentially $2B - $4B revenue per year. They did mention trying to figure out a subscription/usage based billing, if done then the revenue would be much higher. I think $18 is a fair price on the high end. It could grow further than that, but expectations would be HIGH. Resources:
Position: 1,500. Disclaimer: I don't know everything, I may be incorrect about some things. This is based on what I've researched and to the best of my ability. Do your own DD. Obligatory this is not an investment advice. Edit: This is the only sub with a lot of discussion. I appreciate y'all. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 Edit 2: One day later, marked closed $18.03. Crazy.
Finding my investment compass again after being sucked into WSB
With all of the GME/AMC craze over at WSB, I got kind of sucked into it. They're a crazy and funny bunch, but after spending some time there, my investment compass started spinning and I started to seriously question my sanity. It's like going to a wild party, coming home and then waking up with a huge headache in the morning, not knowing what the hell happened last night. I needed to remind myself about various investment theses and I am looking to rebalance. I thought I would share these thoughts in case it might help someone else as much as it helped me to put all my thoughts down on. 20% - Canadian REITs. These got hit hard in March 2020 and their share price have not recovered much even though many of the larger REITs have good balance sheets, cash flows and rent collection. They are still massively undervalued, given that everyone is going out and buying houses and over bidding by 100k+, driving up the price of real estate in many major cities. The Canadian government wants to boost immigration, which is bullish for real estate. It's a nice time to jump in and hold for the long term. I don't use ETFs here since I have spent a lot of time analyzing many Canadian REITs. My favourites are HR.UN, IIP.UN, KMP.UN, SRU.UN, SOT.UN. 20% - ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Cathie Wood's investment thesis is all about investing in disruptive innovation. Through her team's open research, they actively try to find companies of the future (before they become big) to invest in. I came to the game way too late (around December 2020). I admit I was skeptical about ARK. But after listening to Cathie's interviews and videos, I started to gain a lot of respect for her investment intellect and knowledge in the space. I also feel confident ARK is also watching & assessing the macroeconomics side of things and how it affects the companies in their portfolio's and allocating appropriately, as best as they can, which is worth paying the higher price for this ETF. For now, I would only stick money into ARKK and none of the other more specialized ones. I think ARK could do well in the next few years, but I am uncertain they will keep doing well in the very long term (decades). 30% - US Total Market (e.g. VUN, XUU). Jack Bogle's thesis about being in everything and being diversified in your investments. The US total market ETFs hold over 3000 companies of all sizes and diversified in many sectors and types of businesses. If you look at the charts, the share price of this index has been rising since the US federal reserve started their QE program. They are obviously still doing it after the crash in March 2020, creating a huge amount of new money, and that is part of the reason why the US stock market has been going up fast. The US dollar is the reserve currency. The US economy is large and everyone is linked to it. Basically, it's diverse, "too big to fail", and has the backing of the fed & reserve currency. The fed will keep jumping in to prop it up (e.g. Great Recession, COVID pandemic) since retirees and pension funds can't be compromised too much by this index taking decades to recover. With their embrace of MMT (whether right or wrong), I don't see this dovish stance changing anytime soon. Why wouldn't you want to invest in this rather safe basket of equities? 10% - High risk & semi-gambling. I think it's good to allocate a small portion to more high risk type of investments that don't have much correlation with the main index. These could be precious metals, miners, crytocurrency, YOLO/momentum stocks (shrooms, cannabis, DOC.V, NUMI, AMC, GME, etc.) at no more than 2%, emerging market stocks/etfs. 20% - Cash. You always want to have some dry powder lying around in case of a massive black swan crash, or dips. The distributions from REITs can help replenish this reserve every month. I think it would also help stabilize the portfolio a bit more. Currently, I have no allocation to bonds. I am also not close to retirement (still have 25 to 30 years) Interest rates are low everywhere so I don't think bonds are worth it for now. I am also a bit skeptical about investing in the Canadian market because there is a lot of oil & gas and financials. I get that oil isn't going away soon (heck they might even do extremely well once the pandemic is over and people want to travel), but wonder if institutional investors will start to move away from such stocks sooner than we think (market being forward looking). I get that the big Canadian banks are too big to fail, but I think many of them are behind the times (resting on their laurels & not treating customers right since I don't know anyone who actually loves their big bank)... Interest rates are also very low so they're not making much from lending.
Dear Reddit. I have started writing a book of short stories about my life as a hobo. True to my nature of blowing money faster than it came, or blowing the opportunity of even making it, I love you assholes and will let you read the book for free as I write it from the beginning. Enjoy
Chapter One: Bozeman or Bust (lots of bust) I had done it once again, like so many other years before, by traveling north to one of the harshest and coldest states that a hobo could possibly go to during the dead of winter, late-January 2021: Mon-fucking-tana. Or as the locals jokingly say, "Montucky". (edit: Shout-out to Montucky Cold Snacks, the cheap horse-piss watered down beer that is Montana's equivalent of Washington's "Rainier Ale" or Oregon's "Session Lager"). I digress. If I was a goose, I'd surely be the Jonathan Livingston Seagull of the flock…the black sheep shitshow of a goose flying in the completely wrong direction at the worst time of the year. As forementioned, this was not the first time, nor second time, that I've done this. In fact, it's become a habit, if not straight-up routine. Laramie, Wyoming circa November 2016. Glendive, Montana circa January 2015 Minot, North Dakota circa January 2014. Yukon, Canada circa November 2013. Bellingham, Washington circa January 2006. The list goes on, and on, and on… And here I am. Bozeman Fucking Montana, circa January-February 2021. The locals say it's an unusually warm winter, which by Montana's standards might include 5 inches of snow in the afternoon and temperatures dropping below 10F degrees at night. However, according to the high standards of a low-class hobo born and raised on the Gulf Coast of Alabama, this weather is colder than a witches tit. Now, that's not to say that I ain't prepared though. I assure you that I am. Sixteen years of living on the road and rails has made this black goose a well-seasoned bird, with all the trimmings. I have a military sleeping bag that can keep me alive down to negative 30 temperatures. My military backpack is waterproof, and so are the snowboarding pants that I wear under my insulated Carharrt overalls. I have alpaca wool thermal pants, merino wool socks, thermolite waterproof boots, thinsulated gloves, and several wool and polyster beanie hats. My dual-layer mountaineering tent can withstand hurricane-force winds and all the snow that a blizzard can muster. Winter? Montana? Bring it bitch. Hit me with your best shot. You know I like it. wink Sigh. However, DESPITE the freezing temperatures and shit tons of snow, there's a lil secret that I've learned during my many years of traveling, and that secret is certainly DUE to these wintery conditions: Jobs! Lots and lots and lots and lots of jobs! Jobs here, jobs there, jobs every-fucking-where. Hotel jobs, restaurant jobs, retail jobs, construction jobs, maintenance jobs, driving jobs, even jobs just to help other people get more damn jobs! You want a job during winter? Well they got jobs out northern Californie way, Oregonie way, Montanie way, Washingtonie way, North and South Dakotie way, and every which way can go above above the Mason-Dixon line! If you can't find a damn job in the Northwestern United States of America during winter, you ain't fucking looking, and that's a fact. If you got one arm and you can swing a hammer, or punch a number on a cash register, then consider yourself hired on the spot and you can start today. Before this chapter turns into an entire damn book of its own (A Hobo's Guide to Finding Jobs) let's get back to the story here: Bozeman or Bust. As I begin this chapter, I have a red-wine hangover that is enough to drive me to a bullet in the head. I made a pot of coffee only to puke it back up on my hands and knees in front the porcelain thrown. I think it was good ole Earnest Hemingway that once said "Write Drunk, Edit Sober". Experienced words of wisdom from a fine man that knew everything a man could possibly know about drinking shit tons of wine and writing shit tons of stories. I wouldn't be lying if I was to confess that Mr. Hemingway, along with Mr. Steinbeck and Mr. Twain, are drunken heroes of mine that I could only hope someday to sit alongside in the bookstores of Hell and Hades with a gallon of cheap Merlot. Salut, gentleman. After puking, rolling cigarettes, drinking coffee, and puking several times more, I was finally able to sit down to try and remember what-the-fuck happened yesterday; a solemn meditation technique that involves tons of coffee and contemplation; a time to worship the asinine achievements that are accompanied in both rejoice and regret. Yesterday started off sober as a saint. I had a job interview at this place I had found on craigslist, some place looking for fresh warm bodies to fill up their production-assembly line. I took a bus to the address they had given me, which ended up being the adress to the Bozeman City Bank. "A bank?", I thought, as I wondered around the parking lot dumbfounded and confused for a solid 5 minutes, checking the address several times on my phone, wondering why on earth I've been sent to a state bank. After circling the parking lot, I noticed a door on the side of the bank that said "Job Choices Employment Services: Second Floor". Godammit. I had been fucking conned. Fucking craigslist. I know what's going on here…this a goddamn employment agency that wants to take 10-15 percent of my paycheck, take away my rights to healthcare and benefits, in the so-called promise of finding me a "great career path of opportunity". Employment agencies. Just like rats. The only "opportunity" here was them: Creatures of opportunity, parasites hellbent on scavaging peoples money and benefits. "A not-even-close-to-great career path of 9-5 slave-labor bullshit involving years of suckling away your mind, body, and spirit", the sign on the door should have read. This was definitely a mistake. And anyone that has ever had the unfortunate pleasure of being with me can you tell one thing about me: I fucking love mistakes. I love making them, and I love learning from them. I am a walking-talking connoisseur of mistakes. In fact, I just made a mistake trying to spell connoisseur, so I asked Google "Hey Google, spell connoisseur", and due to lack of interpreting my Alabama accent, Google made the mistake of showing me the word Coitus. I have now learned that the word "coitus" is another word for sex. As a writer and the son of an English teacher, I love learning new words. As a human male, I love sex. So learning a new word for "sex" is a fantastic trade-off for that fortunate mistake! I digress. I decided to walk into the bank, up the stairs to the second floor, and down the hall to the employment agency. A well-dressed and very sexy debutant by the name of Tracy stood up and greeted me with a smile that was formal, professional, and admittedly very sexy. While my dirty mind started playing cheap porn music, along with vivid images of me and Tracy wrecking that office like wild alleycats, I was suddenly snapped back into reality with Tracy's sexy voice, saying: "Hey, you must be Mr. Huck! Are you here for the 3:00 o'clock interview? Could you please start by filling out this application? You can have a seat over at the desk here"… Godammit. This employment agency was GOOD. I was Tracy's submissive little slut. I walked right where Tracy told me to walk, sat right in the chair Tracy pulled out for me to sit in, and I started filling out the application with the ballpoint pen that Tracy had somehow put in my hand without me even realizing it. Tracy could have stolen my wallet and the 11 dollars inside of it as well, had she wanted to, and I wouldn't have even noticed. And even if I had noticed, I would have let her do it anyway. Godammit! As I started to fill out the application, I got to the section I dreaded most: job references. Oh boy…allow me to tell you a little about Huck's references, or lacktherof: At my last job, I was fired because of a fight that broke-out between my ex-girlfriend and myself, which began with lots of shouting and shoving, and ended with me getting a black-eye from being punched in the face twice. Fun fact: Italian women are fiery as they are fierce, and bold as they are beautiful. And just like their male Italian counterparts, such as Sylvester Stalone or Al Capone, they know how to land a solid right jab. This fight erupted in the worker's dormitory for all employees to hear and see. And although I was the one with the swollen black eye, I was the one they decided to fire. C'est la vie, such is life. Que sera sera, it be what it fucking be. We can scratch that job off as a reference, without a doubt. The job before that, I was at a marijuana farm called "Great American Cannabis", in which my managers and co-workers tried to recruit me into a far-right group of sexist and racist baboons called "The Proud Boys". There was a pre-determining factor in why that farm had hired me, and assumed I would be interested in their idealogical gang. That pre-determing factor was the very same factor that led Google to teaching me the wrong word and definition: my Alabama accent. Great American Cannabis had hired me based on a phone interview, in which they assumed my southern accent indicated two things, in which case one of their assumptions was right, and one was wrong: Assumption Numero Uno: Huck has an Alabama accent, which therefore indicates that he has years of experience working on farms, growing plants, and being an honest and hard-worker. Assumption Numero Dos: Huck has an Alabama accent, therefore he must be idealogically aligned with far-right beliefs including sexism and racism. Welp, I am proud to say that even that although a 50% winning percentage may be fine and dandy with gambling in Vegas, and can be seen as half full or half empty based on however optimisitic or pessimistic you might be, in the case of Great American Cannabis and The Proud Boys, those odds ended pretty badly. As it turns out, despite being raised by a racist father and surrounded by bigotry in the not-so-sweet home of Alabama, those very dispositions made this black sheep child rebel from such ass-backward beliefs, and I am staunchly pro-civil rights, which means I am pro-immigration, and a proud supporter of the sufferage movement for womens right. Obviously, that did not go very well with my co-workers at the farm, and I was fired within the first month. But wait, theres more tragic humor to the story of this farm, which I'll organize in two keypoints: Keypoint Numero Uno: The farm was owned by Iranian immigrants. I…shit…you…not. That's right. YOU DID READ THAT CORRECTLY. Not only was the farm owned and managed by a minority group of immigrants, those very immigrants came directly from the very country is at the VERY TOP of White-America's shitlist: Iran. Keypoint Numeros Dos: After I was fired based almost entirely according to my leftist and progressive views on race and gender equality, within just a couple of weeks nearly everybody on the farm was fired and replaced by cheaper immigrant labor in the form of Laotian women. That's right…a white-blooded American-born legal-working male, was replaced by brown-blooded, foreign-born, mostly-illegal-working females, on a farm owned and managed by right-wing racists and sexists that were anti-immigration. Once again, I…shit…you…fucking…not...let THAT shit sink in. I literally cannot make this shit up, and let it be forever proof that reality, however tragic or ironic it may be, is far greater than fiction. You can write that last sentence in a letter, shove that puppy in an envelope, slap that bitch with a stamp, and mail it to the fucking MOON. Or you can mail it to Iran, or Laos, whichever you prefer. However, I digress. So, being that I was fired from Great American Cannabis by a bunch of Iranian Proud Boys, you can scratch that job off of the "reference" list as well. Sigh. So, how about the job before that? Well, that's a hell of a story too, but I'll make it quick and cut shorter to the chase: I worked on a fishing boat for a Mormon captain. Although I loved him like a Dad, and he often treated me like a son, my job ended in these words: "Huck, I really like you. You're one of the hardest working deckhands I've ever had, despite it being a very terrible year for fishing. However, as a man that is a Latter Day Saint of God, as a Mormon, I'm going to have to ask you to leave because of three reasons: 1) You smoke cigarettes, marijuana, and drink alcohol and coffee. 2) You curse worse than a sailor. 3) You are an atheist/agnostic." And in case you, the reader did not know: Mormons HATE cigarettes, marijuana, alcohol, AND coffee. They are forbidden to curse, and they are not even allowed to tolerate the company of anyone that isn't a believer in God. Well Godammit. How in the hell am I so goddamn misfortunate and unlucky, to be the must FIRST FUCKING PERSON in the entire HISTORY OF FISHING, that has gotten fired for using curse words and drinking whiskey. I couldn't even absorb the fact that my boss was firing me because I couldn't get over the fact that I was possibly the first sailor or fisherman in all of ocean-faring humanity that had gotten fired for doing what sailors and fisherman are guaranteed and known to do best: drinkin' and cursin' We can also scratch THAT job off the possible reference list as well. It was at this point in the office of Job Choices Bozeman that the porn music had long since stopped playing in my head, and that I suddenly and swiftly fell deeply into a full blown existential crisis right there in Tracy's office while simply trying to think of a single reference from my last 3 jobs. The unbelievable amount of misfortune, tragedy, irony, and utter insanity of my last 3 job experiences had truly started to sink in, and I was beginning to legitimately lose my temporary grasp on sanity along with my faith in humanity altogether in one great, big, sloppy sandwich of existential fucking crisis. Allow me to self-diagnose this existential crisis sandwich by peeling off some of the layers of this enormous stinking onion that is in the middle of it all: Either that curse that was put on me a few years ago by a Mexican trainhopping gypsy from New Orleans is proof that curses are indeed fucking real, or either I am the unluckiest son of a bitch on this entire planet that is so very unlucky that I am slowly (or quickly) coming to the conclusion that this entire life is a simulation that is programmed by some sick comedic asshole that specializes in the tragedies of both irony AND misfortune. And though some people in this world call that programmer God or Allah or Jehovah, I call him Jeff. I call him "Jeff in Programming", with same amount of disdain and hatred that Michael Scott refers to "Toby in Human Resources" in the American version of the show "The Office". (Sidenote: If you do not understand my last reference because you have not watched The Office, then you need to stop reading this book right now, go sign up for one month of Netflix, and spend that entire month binge-watching one of the greatest sitcoms ever made in the history of television: The Office (US Version). Go. Now!) I digress. As I collapsed into a full-blown existential crisis while thinking of job references on the second floor employment services office above Montana State Bank, my fantasy-based relationship with Tracy was also about to crumble into an existential crisis as well, based on two very important qualities: Quality Numero Uno: Tracy and I had no relationship that actually existed outside of my head and a stupid job application form. We had never knocked over all of the filing cabinets, water-cooler, or broken the copying machine with tantric sex. That scenario never existed period. Quality Numeros Dos: I was about to not only lie, but also commit non-existent adultery to Tracy, thus putting a very real end to a not-very-real relationship. I stood up from the desk that me and Tracy had never fucked on, and I told Tracy that I had to use the bathroom. And though I did really have to use the bathroom, it wasn't for the purpose of pissing or taking a shit, it was for the purpose of throwing the application in the toilet and sneaking my way down the hallway and out of the employment agency. In which case, that is precisely what I did. Upon stepping out of the door and back into the parking lot of Bozeman City Bank, I noticed another hot little woman across the street: A dazzling red-headed freckle-faced damsel by the name of Wendy, who promised in her fertile bosom the birth of two-dollar cheeseburgers and loaded baked potatoes. I went inside Wendy's house, and began to have an oral relationship by penetrating my mouth with nearly everything that was offered on Wendy's dollar-value menu. Stop here, acquire coffee, booze, and cigarettes until I feel like writing again, which may be later tonight, tomorrow morning, or possibly fucking never
How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All
TL:DR: yes its long. Grab a beer.
Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brother plotted to corner the global silver market. Sure, back in 1980, Bunker, his younger brother Herbert, and other members of the Hunt clan owned roughly two-thirds of all the privately held silver on earth. But the historic stockpiling of bullion hadn’t been a ploy to manipulate the market, they and their sizable legal team would insist in the following years. Instead, it was a strategy to hedge against the voracious inflation of the 1970s—a monumental bet against the U.S. dollar. Whatever the motive, it was a bet that went historically sour. The debt-fueled boom and bust of the global silver market not only decimated the Hunt fortune, but threatened to take down the U.S. financial system. The panic of “Silver Thursday” took place over 35 years ago, but it still raises questions about the nature of financial manipulation. While many view the Hunt brothers as members of a long succession of white collar crooks, from Charles Ponzi to Bernie Madoff, others see the endearingly eccentric Texans as the victims of overstepping regulators and vindictive insiders who couldn’t stand the thought of being played by a couple of southern yokels. In either case, the story of the Hunt brothers just goes to show how difficult it can be to distinguish illegal market manipulation from the old fashioned wheeling and dealing that make our markets work. The Real-Life Ewings Whatever their foibles, the Hunts make for an interesting cast of characters. Evidently CBS thought so; the family is rumored to be the basis for the Ewings, the fictional Texas oil dynasty of Dallas fame. Sitting at the top of the family tree was H.L. Hunt, a man who allegedly purchased his first oil field with poker winnings and made a fortune drilling in east Texas. H.L. was a well-known oddball to boot, and his sons inherited many of their father’s quirks. For one, there was the stinginess. Despite being the richest man on earth in the 1960s, Bunker Hunt (who went by his middle name), along with his younger brothers Herbert (first name William) and Lamar, cultivated an image as unpretentious good old boys. They drove old Cadillacs, flew coach, and when they eventually went to trial in New York City in 1988, they took the subway. As one Texas editor was quoted in the New York Times, Bunker Hunt was “the kind of guy who orders chicken-fried steak and Jello-O, spills some on his tie, and then goes out and buys all the silver in the world.” Cheap suits aside, the Hunts were not without their ostentation. At the end of the 1970s, Bunker boasted a stable of over 500 horses and his little brother Lamar owned the Kansas City Chiefs. All six children of H.L.’s first marriage (the patriarch of the Hunt family had fifteen children by three women before he died in 1974) lived on estates befitting the scions of a Texas billionaire. These lifestyles were financed by trusts, but also risky investments in oil, real estate, and a host of commodities including sugar beets, soybeans, and, before long, silver. The Hunt brothers also inherited their father’s political inclinations. A zealous anti-Communist, Bunker Hunt bankrolled conservative causes and was a prominent member of the John Birch Society, a group whose founder once speculated that Dwight Eisenhower was a “dedicated, conscious agent” of Soviet conspiracy. In November of 1963, Hunt sponsored a particularly ill-timed political campaign, which distributed pamphlets around Dallas condemning President Kennedy for alleged slights against the Constitution on the day that he was assassinated. JFK conspiracy theorists have been obsessed with Hunt ever since. In fact, it was the Hunt brand of politics that partially explains what led Bunker and Herbert to start buying silver in 1973. Hard Money The 1970s were not kind to the U.S. dollar. Years of wartime spending and unresponsive monetary policy pushed inflation upward throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. Then, in October of 1973, war broke out in the Middle East and an oil embargo was declared against the United States. Inflation jumped above 10%. It would stay high throughout the decade, peaking in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution at an annual average of 13.5% in 1980. Over the same period of time, the global monetary system underwent a historic transformation. Since the first Roosevelt administration, the U.S. dollar had been pegged to the value of gold at a predictable rate of $35 per ounce. But in 1971, President Nixon, responding to inflationary pressures, suspended that relationship. For the first time in modern history, the paper dollar did not represent some fixed amount of tangible, precious metal sitting in a vault somewhere. For conservative commodity traders like the Hunts, who blamed government spending for inflation and held grave reservations about the viability of fiat currency, the perceived stability of precious metal offered a financial safe harbor. It was illegal to trade gold in the early 1970s, so the Hunts turned to the next best thing. 📷
As an investment, there was a lot to like about silver. The Hunts were not alone in fleeing to bullion amid all the inflation and geopolitical turbulence, so the price was ticking up. Plus, light-sensitive silver halide is a key component of photographic film. With the growth of the consumer photography market, new production from mines struggled to keep up with demand. And so, in 1973, Bunker and Herbert bought over 35 million ounces of silver, most of which they flew to Switzerland in specifically designed airplanes guarded by armed Texas ranch hands. According to one source, the Hunt’s purchases were big enough to move the global market. But silver was not the Hunts' only speculative venture in the 1970s. Nor was it the only one that got them into trouble with regulators. Soy Before Silver In 1977, the price of soybeans was rising fast. Trade restrictions on Brazil and growing demand from China made the legume a hot commodity, and both Bunker and Herbert decided to enter the futures market in April of that year. A future is an agreement to buy or sell some quantity of a commodity at an agreed upon price at a later date. If someone contracts to buy soybeans in the future (they are said to take the “long” position), they will benefit if the price of soybeans rise, since they have locked in the lower price ahead of time. Likewise, if someone contracts to sell (that’s called the “short” position), they benefit if the price falls, since they have locked in the old, higher price. While futures contracts can be used by soybean farmers and soy milk producers to guard against price swings, most futures are traded by people who wouldn’t necessarily know tofu from cream cheese. As a de facto insurance contract against market volatility, futures can be used to hedge other investments or simply to gamble on prices going up (by going long) or down (by going short). When the Hunts decided to go long in the soybean futures market, they went very, very long. Between Bunker, Herbert, and the accounts of five of their children, the Hunts collectively purchased the right to buy one-third of the entire autumn soybean harvest of the United States. To some, it appeared as if the Hunts were attempting to corner the soybean market. In its simplest version, a corner occurs when someone buys up all (or at least, most) of the available quantity of a commodity. This creates an artificial shortage, which drives up the price, and allows the market manipulator to sell some of his stockpile at a higher profit. Futures markets introduce some additional complexity to the cornerer’s scheme. Recall that when a trader takes a short position on a contract, he or she is pledging to sell a certain amount of product to the holder of the long position. But if the holder of the long position just so happens to be sitting on all the readily available supply of the commodity under contract, the short seller faces an unenviable choice: go scrounge up some of the very scarce product in order to “make delivery” or just pay the cornerer a hefty premium and nullify the deal entirely. In this case, the cornerer is actually counting on the shorts to do the latter, says Craig Pirrong, professor of finance at the University of Houston. If too many short sellers find that it actually costs less to deliver the product, the market manipulator will be stuck with warehouses full of inventory. Finance experts refer to selling the all the excess supply after building a corner as “burying the corpse.” “That is when the price collapses,” explains Pirrong. “But if the number of deliveries isn’t too high, the loss from selling at the low price after the corner is smaller than the profit from selling contracts at the high price.” 📷
The Chicago Board of Trade trading floor. Photo credit:Jeremy Kemp
Even so, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found that a single family from Texas had contracted to buy a sizable portion of the 1977 soybean crop, they did not accuse the Hunts of outright market manipulation. Instead, noting that the Hunts had exceeded the 3 million bushel aggregate limit on soybean holdings by about 20 million, the CFTC noted that the Hunt’s “excessive holdings threaten disruption of the market and could cause serious injury to the American public.” The CFTC ordered the Hunts to sell and to pay a penalty of $500,000. Though the Hunts made tens of millions of dollars on paper while soybean prices skyrocketed, it’s unclear whether they were able to cash out before the regulatory intervention. In any case, the Hunts were none too pleased with the decision. “Apparently the CFTC is trying to repeal the law of supply and demand,” Bunker complained to the press. Silver Thursday Despite the run in with regulators, the Hunts were not dissuaded. Bunker and Herbert had eased up on silver after their initial big buy in 1973, but in the fall of 1979, they were back with a vengeance. By the end of the year, Bunker and Herbert owned 21 million ounces of physical silver each. They had even larger positions in the silver futures market: Bunker was long on 45 million ounces, while Herbert held contracts for 20 million. Their little brother Lamar also had a more “modest” position. By the new year, with every dollar increase in the price of silver, the Hunts were making $100 million on paper. But unlike most investors, when their profitable futures contracts expired, they took delivery. As in 1973, they arranged to have the metal flown to Switzerland. Intentional or not, this helped create a shortage of the metal for industrial supply. Naturally, the industrialists were unhappy. From a spot price of around $6 per ounce in early 1979, the price of silver shot up to $50.42 in January of 1980. In the same week, silver futures contracts were trading at $46.80. Film companies like Kodak saw costs go through the roof, while the British film producer, Ilford, was forced to lay off workers. Traditional bullion dealers, caught in a squeeze, cried foul to the commodity exchanges, and the New York jewelry house Tiffany & Co. took out a full page ad in the New York Times slamming the “unconscionable” Hunt brothers. They were right to single out the Hunts; in mid-January, they controlled 69% of all the silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York. 📷
But as the high prices persisted, new silver began to come out of the woodwork. “In the U.S., people rifled their dresser drawers and sofa cushions to find dimes and quarters with silver content and had them melted down,” says Pirrong, from the University of Houston. “Silver is a classic part of a bride’s trousseau in India, and when prices got high, women sold silver out of their trousseaus.” According to a Washington Post article published that March, the D.C. police warned residents of a rash of home burglaries targeting silver. Unfortunately for the Hunts, all this new supply had a predictable effect. Rather than close out their contracts, short sellers suddenly found it was easier to get their hands on new supplies of silver and deliver. “The main factor that has caused corners to fail [throughout history] is that the manipulator has underestimated how much will be delivered to him if he succeeds [at] raising the price to artificial levels,” says Pirrong. “Eventually, the Hunts ran out of money to pay for all the silver that was thrown at them.” In financial terms, the brothers had a large corpse on their hands—and no way to bury it. This proved to be an especially big problem, because it wasn’t just the Hunt fortune that was on the line. Of the $6.6 billion worth of silver the Hunts held at the top of the market, the brothers had “only” spent a little over $1 billion of their own money. The rest was borrowed from over 20 banks and brokerage houses. At the same time, COMEX decided to crack down. On January 7, 1980, the exchange’s board of governors announced that it would cap the size of silver futures exposure to 3 million ounces. Those in excess of the cap (say, by the tens of millions) were given until the following month to bring themselves into compliance. But that was too long for the Chicago Board of Trade exchange, which suspended the issue of any new silver futures on January 21. Silver futures traders would only be allowed to square up old contracts. Predictably, silver prices began to slide. As the various banks and other firms that had backed the Hunt bullion binge began to recognize the tenuousness of their financial position, they issued margin calls, asking the brothers to put up more money as collateral for their debts. The Hunts, unable to sell silver lest they trigger a panic, borrowed even more. By early March, futures contracts had fallen to the mid-$30 range. Matters finally came to a head on March 25, when one of the Hunts’ largest backers, the Bache Group, asked for $100 million more in collateral. The brothers were out of cash, and Bache was unwilling to accept silver in its place, as it had been doing throughout the month. With the Hunts in default, Bache did the only thing it could to start recouping its losses: it start to unload silver. On March 27, “Silver Thursday,” the silver futures market dropped by a third to $10.80. Just two months earlier, these contracts had been trading at four times that amount. The Aftermath After the oil bust of the early 1980s and a series of lawsuits polished off the remainder of the Hunt brothers’ once historic fortune, the two declared bankruptcy in 1988. Bunker, who had been worth an estimated $16 billion in the 1960s, emerged with under $10 million to his name. That’s not exactly chump change, but it wasn’t enough to maintain his 500-plus stable of horses,. The Hunts almost dragged their lenders into bankruptcy too—and with them, a sizable chunk of the U.S. financial system. Over twenty financial institutions had extended over a billion dollars in credit to the Hunt brothers. The default and resulting collapse of silver prices blew holes in balance sheets across Wall Street. A privately orchestrated bailout loan from a number of banks allowed the brothers to start paying off their debts and keep their creditors afloat, but the markets and regulators were rattled. Silver Spot Prices Per Ounce (January, 1979 - June, 1980) 📷
In the words of then CFTC chief James Stone, the Hunts’ antics had threatened to punch a hole in the “financial fabric of the United States” like nothing had in decades. Writing about the entire episode a year later, Harper’s Magazine described Silver Thursday as “the first great panic since October 1929.” The trouble was not over for the Hunts. In the following years, the brothers were dragged before Congressional hearings, got into a legal spat with their lenders, and were sued by a Peruvian mineral marketing company, which had suffered big losses in the crash. In 1988, a New York City jury found for the South American firm, levying a penalty of over $130 million against the Hunts and finding that they had deliberately conspired to corner the silver market. Surprisingly, there is still some disagreement on that point. Bunker Hunt attributed the whole affair to the political motives of COMEX insiders and regulators. Referring to himself later as “a favorite whipping boy” of an eastern financial establishment riddled with liberals and socialists, Bunker and his brother, Herbert, are still perceived as martyrs by some on the far-right. “Political and financial insiders repeatedly changed the rules of the game,” wrote the New American. “There is little evidence to support the ‘corner the market’ narrative.” Though the Hunt brothers clearly amassed a staggering amount of silver and silver derivatives at the end of the 1970s, it is impossible to prove definitively that market manipulation was in their hearts. Maybe, as the Hunts always claimed, they just really believed in the enduring value of silver. Or maybe, as others have noted, the Hunt brothers had no idea what they were doing. Call it the stupidity defense. “They’re terribly unsophisticated,” an anonymous associated was quoted as saying of the Hunts in a Chicago Tribune article from 1989. “They make all the mistakes most other people make,” said another. p.s. credit to Ben Christopher
Note: BlackBerry is NOT a cyber security company. They are a security company. Revenue does not care about your AI driven autonomous machine learning EV car with DDs. People are using these terms loosely. A quick lookup for interviews with John Chen would prove that he explicitly avoids these terms as they do not define nor matter to the products/revenue of BlackBerry. QNX revenue does not depend on any of these terms, it's on installation on any device. This includes the space station, of which there is 1 of with obviously non-recurring revenue. Buying based on these basis would be gambling. Bull:
Business transformation: BlackBerry is now a software company, starting the transformation in 2015. The focus is security, the general term.
5 Products:
QNX: Embedded system OS.
Multi-OS housing: It has the capability to allow for multiple OSs on a single chip.
Real-time availability/software prioritization: Not all pieces of software operate on the same priority. Steering/braking would be higher priority than media, and QNX allows for that. Even if the thread/core is shared with other applications, when high priority software is requesting a resource it will be prioritized to ensure reliability.
Resource sharing: CPU, RAM, and GPU resource sharing between different applications capability. Two applications can share the same CPU core and bump each other based on prioritization.
Why not Linux? QNX has the highest certification for security available. Linux does not. CEOs would want to avoid liability and this certification allows for that.
Device agnostic: It can be installed on any device, not just cars. Any IoT and offline device can use QNX.
QNX Hypervisor: Consolidate multiple OSs on a single SoC using virtualization
SoC: System on a chip. Instead of using multiple ECUs, which is what car manufacturers currently do, they can use one single chip to run multiple high priority applications and multiple OSs. This is what Tesla does now.
Virtualization: Running an OS in a virtual environment. Think Linux environment inside of Windows. This helps with debugging for developers without having to have the actual hardware.
IVY: Scalable cloud-connected software platform for vehicles.
What is it a solution for? When a vehicle manufacturer wants a way to transmit the QNX/OS data safely, normalize it, and visualize it/interact with it. It also allows car manufacturers to own the data, unlike other OSs.
Scalable: AWS servers are capable of handling the load from many endpoints.
Software platform: There is currently no centralized software ecosystem for vehicles. IVY is providing that.
Non-BB developers would be able to use an SDK to develop applications on IVY for infotainment/general apps/others. IVY will also use ML to gain insight on unrecognized patterns by developers. An example of this is detecting if a car slipped, without having the developer connect multiple sensors to figure out if that event happened.
50/50 joint effort on revenue and effort to develop the ecosystem. Using AWS's knowledge in AI/ML for calculated sensors (slip, driver on seat, etc)
Usage by other vendors: A city can connect to the data from vehicles and detect when ice/slipping is happening. If brakes are getting overheated coming from a high elevation area. If a car had an accident, etc. An insurance company can provide an app to give discounts similar to the currently implemented OBD-2 readers. A maintenance provider can also connect to this data and check if an error is specific to maintenance, malpractice, or general misuse.
Spark: Endpoint management. Basically API security. Did not delve far into this, basic info.
Unified Endpoint Security: This is the endpoint where a laptop/phone/IoT device hits. It provides encryption and security around that. Continuous authentication is a part of it, where a device is learning the user behavior using ML and continuously checking if the behavior matches the original owner; if not, lock the device.
Unified Endpoint Management: Basically managing your API for devices.
Zero trust: I think this is specifically talking about continuous authentication. Basically, it's not an authenticate once and forget it. It's constantly tracking behavior to verify the user is the authenticated user.
AtHoc: Non-enterprise communication system.
Target customers: Government, healthcare, education, etc.
Solution: A communication system targeting non-enterprise businesses; specifically for Event management, cross organizational communication/collaboration, mass notifications.
Who does this benefit? You've seen the hacks in healthcare/educational/governmental sector. This is specifically for them.
SecuSUITE: Phone application to allow employees to use work related data in personal devices without cross communication (between personal and work data).
End to end encryption.
Separation of concerns between personal and work data. Employers CANNOT access your personal data.
Used by NATO; doesn't carry much value in my book but maybe in yours.
Customer oriented solutions: As you've seen in the products above, some products overlap and are just names to target specific customers. It allows customers to easily understand what product could solve their issue. Continuous authentication is a great example of this: Their customer complained that they kept re-authenticating, so they designed a solution allowing them to authenticate once and using ML they learned their behavior and can continuously check if the user is the owneauthenticated user. This kind of passion in leadership is good for business.
Liability: QNX has the highest security rating available. Most CEOs want to avoid liability when it comes to security, using QNX would help them avoid that in a similar way cloud services help them avoid being blamed for hacking.
Leadership: BBs leadership isn't one to play on famous words to drive the stock up. John Chen explicitly states this in his interviews and says they are a security company. Not cyber, doesn't mention AI or whatever. He explicitly avoids meme words and understands what the point of BBs business is.
Where I think growth can be made:
QNX in more cars. They can capitalize on the idea of less ECUs = less cost for OEMs + security.
IVY usage by OEMs along with QNX.
IVY ecosystem. Maybe application billing?
Professional services (support) for the products listed.
AtHoc increased market share in more governmental/healthcare/educational entities.
SecuSUITE for more enterprise customers with the idea being saving employers money from purchasing work phones for employees, and worrying about securing them.
Bear:
Revenue: It is not yet based on a subscription/usage basis. You can only produce so many cars, and they don't give an insight on how much do they charge per car for QNX. Anywhere from $2 - $20 is what was mentioned in transcripts. This is a growth area, but not at a trajectory that's excellent. IVY does work on a subscription/usage basis, but IVY can be used WITHOUT QNX. I'm worried about this, but still see it as an area that will generate revenue in the range of $400 MM - $600 MM at the price of $20 per 30M cars. The 30M per year is based on the listing of their customers and their yearly production rates. Keep in mind I stated any device, this does not include trucks or other IoT devices.
Market share: These are relatively new products. J.P. Morgan pointed this out as a priority for growth. This could end up not working out and growth never happens. This is a relatively low risk due to QNX and IVY providing SO MUCH value for car manufacturers Vs. other products in the market.
Patent revenue: They sold a chunk of their no longer relevant patents to Huawei. This makes up a small (<= 32%) of their revenue and is a one time sale. The coming quarter could be equal or less to the last quarter revenue due to either other sales making up the lost revenue from patents, or coming up short. It could come higher if they sold more services, but due to COVID and knowing that many car manufacturers have lowered their production due to chip shortage, the next quarter will most likely be lower.
VW.os: VW is making their own OS. VW.os is what they're calling it. They're currently using QNX, but that revenue could potentially stop. Personally I don't believe VW is capable of doing that. It's a marketing hype. Their companies are not capable of good collaboration or good implementation based on what I've read and researched (can't find article right now), but it's something to be concerned about.
QNX success: While IVY could be using QNX, it does NOT depend on it. There is potential for OEMs to use IVY without QNX. I think this is a low risk, but still risk. 19 OEMs are already using QNX.
Lack of Answers: I can't get much out of their earnings call. They don't delve into pricing for QNX, how they plan to grow it besides getting more car manufacturers and more cars post Corona. How they plan to do recurring revenue. A breakdown of each revenue segment would be helpful, but I don't see that either and there is hesitancy to delve into it.
Prediction: I think QNX can become a $1B revenue per year alone. $2B revenue per year as a company is not far fetched. Without a subscription/usage based model, it is difficult to see how growth can go beyond that. BB is good in 2-5 years, not this year. I can see their revenue growing to potentially $2B - $4B revenue per year. They did mention trying to figure out a subscription/usage based billing, if done then the revenue would be much higher. I think $18 is a fair price on the high end. It could grow further than that, but expectations would be HIGH. Resources:
Position: 1,500. Disclaimer: I don't know everything, I may be incorrect about some things. This is based on what I've researched and to the best of my ability. Do your own DD. Obligatory this is not an investment advice.
Note: BlackBerry is NOT a cyber security company. They are a security company. Revenue does not care about your AI driven autonomous machine learning EV car with DDs. People are using these terms loosely. A quick lookup for interviews with John Chen would prove that he explicitly avoids these terms as they do not define nor matter to the products/revenue of BlackBerry. QNX revenue does not depend on any of these terms, it's on installation on any device. This includes the space station, of which there is 1 of with obviously non-recurring revenue. Buying based on these basis would be gambling. Bull:
Business transformation: BlackBerry is now a software company, starting the transformation in 2015. The focus is security, the general term.
5 Products:
QNX: Embedded system OS.
Multi-OS housing: It has the capability to allow for multiple OSs on a single chip.
Real-time availability/software prioritization: Not all pieces of software operate on the same priority. Steering/braking would be higher priority than media, and QNX allows for that. Even if the thread/core is shared with other applications, when high priority software is requesting a resource it will be prioritized to ensure reliability.
Resource sharing: CPU, RAM, and GPU resource sharing between different applications capability. Two applications can share the same CPU core and bump each other based on prioritization.
Why not Linux? QNX has the highest certification for security available. Linux does not. CEOs would want to avoid liability and this certification allows for that.
Device agnostic: It can be installed on any device, not just cars. Any IoT and offline device can use QNX.
QNX Hypervisor: Consolidate multiple OSs on a single SoC using virtualization
SoC: System on a chip. Instead of using multiple ECUs, which is what car manufacturers currently do, they can use one single chip to run multiple high priority applications and multiple OSs. This is what Tesla does now.
Virtualization: Running an OS in a virtual environment. Think Linux environment inside of Windows. This helps with debugging for developers without having to have the actual hardware.
IVY: Scalable cloud-connected software platform for vehicles.
What is it a solution for? When a vehicle manufacturer wants a way to transmit the QNX/OS data safely, normalize it, and visualize it/interact with it. It also allows car manufacturers to own the data, unlike other OSs.
Scalable: AWS servers are capable of handling the load from many endpoints.
Software platform: There is currently no centralized software ecosystem for vehicles. IVY is providing that.
Non-BB developers would be able to use an SDK to develop applications on IVY for infotainment/general apps/others. IVY will also use ML to gain insight on unrecognized patterns by developers. An example of this is detecting if a car slipped, without having the developer connect multiple sensors to figure out if that event happened.
50/50 joint effort on revenue and effort to develop the ecosystem. Using AWS's knowledge in AI/ML for calculated sensors (slip, driver on seat, etc)
Usage by other vendors: A city can connect to the data from vehicles and detect when ice/slipping is happening. If brakes are getting overheated coming from a high elevation area. If a car had an accident, etc. An insurance company can provide an app to give discounts similar to the currently implemented OBD-2 readers. A maintenance provider can also connect to this data and check if an error is specific to maintenance, malpractice, or general misuse.
Spark: Endpoint management. Basically API security. Did not delve far into this, basic info.
Unified Endpoint Security: This is the endpoint where a laptop/phone/IoT device hits. It provides encryption and security around that. Continuous authentication is a part of it, where a device is learning the user behavior using ML and continuously checking if the behavior matches the original owner; if not, lock the device.
Unified Endpoint Management: Basically managing your API for devices.
Zero trust: I think this is specifically talking about continuous authentication. Basically, it's not an authenticate once and forget it. It's constantly tracking behavior to verify the user is the authenticated user.
AtHoc: Non-enterprise communication system.
Target customers: Government, healthcare, education, etc.
Solution: A communication system targeting non-enterprise businesses; specifically for Event management, cross organizational communication/collaboration, mass notifications.
Who does this benefit? You've seen the hacks in healthcare/educational/governmental sector. This is specifically for them.
SecuSUITE: Phone application to allow employees to use work related data in personal devices without cross communication (between personal and work data).
End to end encryption.
Separation of concerns between personal and work data. Employers CANNOT access your personal data.
Used by NATO; doesn't carry much value in my book but maybe in yours.
Customer oriented solutions: As you've seen in the products above, some products overlap and are just names to target specific customers. It allows customers to easily understand what product could solve their issue. Continuous authentication is a great example of this: Their customer complained that they kept re-authenticating, so they designed a solution allowing them to authenticate once and using ML they learned their behavior and can continuously check if the user is the owneauthenticated user. This kind of passion in leadership is good for business.
Liability: QNX has the highest security rating available. Most CEOs want to avoid liability when it comes to security, using QNX would help them avoid that in a similar way cloud services help them avoid being blamed for hacking.
Leadership: BBs leadership isn't one to play on famous words to drive the stock up. John Chen explicitly states this in his interviews and says they are a security company. Not cyber, doesn't mention AI or whatever. He explicitly avoids meme words and understands what the point of BBs business is.
Where I think growth can be made:
QNX in more cars. They can capitalize on the idea of less ECUs = less cost for OEMs + security.
IVY usage by OEMs along with QNX.
IVY ecosystem. Maybe application billing?
Professional services (support) for the products listed.
AtHoc increased market share in more governmental/healthcare/educational entities.
SecuSUITE for more enterprise customers with the idea being saving employers money from purchasing work phones for employees, and worrying about securing them.
Bear:
Revenue: It is not yet based on a subscription/usage basis. You can only produce so many cars, and they don't give an insight on how much do they charge per car for QNX. Anywhere from $2 - $20 is what was mentioned in transcripts. This is a growth area, but not at a trajectory that's excellent. IVY does work on a subscription/usage basis, but IVY can be used WITHOUT QNX. I'm worried about this, but still see it as an area that will generate revenue in the range of $400 MM - $600 MM at the price of $20 per 30M cars. The 30M per year is based on the listing of their customers and their yearly production rates. Keep in mind I stated any device, this does not include trucks or other IoT devices.
Market share: These are relatively new products. J.P. Morgan pointed this out as a priority for growth. This could end up not working out and growth never happens. This is a relatively low risk due to QNX and IVY providing SO MUCH value for car manufacturers Vs. other products in the market.
Patent revenue: They sold a chunk of their no longer relevant patents to Huawei. This makes up a small (<= 32%) of their revenue and is a one time sale. The coming quarter could be equal or less to the last quarter revenue due to either other sales making up the lost revenue from patents, or coming up short. It could come higher if they sold more services, but due to COVID and knowing that many car manufacturers have lowered their production due to chip shortage, the next quarter will most likely be lower.
VW.os: VW is making their own OS. VW.os is what they're calling it. They're currently using QNX, but that revenue could potentially stop. Personally I don't believe VW is capable of doing that. It's a marketing hype. Their companies are not capable of good collaboration or good implementation based on what I've read and researched (can't find article right now), but it's something to be concerned about.
QNX success: While IVY could be using QNX, it does NOT depend on it. There is potential for OEMs to use IVY without QNX. I think this is a low risk, but still risk. 19 OEMs are already using QNX.
Lack of Answers: I can't get much out of their earnings call. They don't delve into pricing for QNX, how they plan to grow it besides getting more car manufacturers and more cars post Corona. How they plan to do recurring revenue. A breakdown of each revenue segment would be helpful, but I don't see that either and there is hesitancy to delve into it.
Prediction: I think QNX can become a $1B revenue per year alone. $2B revenue per year as a company is not far fetched. Without a subscription/usage based model, it is difficult to see how growth can go beyond that. BB is good in 2-5 years, not this year. I can see their revenue growing to potentially $2B - $4B revenue per year. They did mention trying to figure out a subscription/usage based billing, if done then the revenue would be much higher. I think $18 is a fair price on the high end. It could grow further than that, but expectations would be HIGH. Resources:
Position: 1,500. Disclaimer: I don't know everything, I may be incorrect about some things. This is based on what I've researched and to the best of my ability. Do your own DD. Obligatory this is not an investment advice.
I think there's biblical evidence the Brighamite branch of Mormonism is not Jesus's true church
I've been thinking about this for a while, I'm done with the church but have plenty of family still in, and I'm curious what people's thought are about the following points,
Who did Jesus hate?
The Pharisees. (Matt 23)
How are the LDS general authorities and even local leaders like the Pharisees?
They sit in the best seats
People revere them
They are served first
They have nice clothes
Most of them live in nice homes in a nice city that the church keeps improving
Why did he hate them?
They made up rules and tried to make people follow them.
Current examples, coffee, alcohol, tobacco, gambling, white shirts, regular temple attendance, regular Sunday attendance, regular scripture reading, serving in the church, never rejecting a calling, not criticizing leaders, just to name a few.
If Jesus hated the Pharisees for having all kinds of rules they had to follow to be worthy, then why would his restored church have more than 2 questions on the temple recommend interview? Wouldn't Jesus's questions be do you love God? Do you love your neighbor as yourself? (Mark 12:30-31)
Why did Jesus get mad in the temple?
There were money changers (Matt 21:12)
Why are there cafeterias in some temples? Why does the church charge money for anything in the temple? Would Jesus be ok with it?
What did Jesus tell the rich man to do?
Sell all he had and give to the poor (Matt 19:21)
Why does the LDS church have 100B+ in investments, why does it own %2 of Florida, why does it have "for profit" businesses, why does it have real-estate around the globe, why does it build huge expensive temples, especially in places where they aren't needed, like Rome?
Jesus's true church would be monetarily poor because it would give everything and do everything to help the poor.
Who would Jesus tell us to give our tithing to, the church or the poor we see around us?
What did Jesus spend his time doing?
Healing the sick and afflicted
Why don't I know anyone who's been healed by the priesthood? I've never met or heard of anyone who had a limb restored, sight restored, hearing restored, or mental capacity restored. The only successful blessings I've heard of are things that could be considered random chance, flu/stomach bugs, cancer disappearing after a diagnosis (did they mix up x-rays?), broken bones that might have just been a bad sprang or a bruise.
Shouldn't we see, especially in Utah, statistically significant numbers at hospitals where people are admitted that are in severe condition, receive a blessing, and leave without receiving care?
It had been centuries since the Luddite Wars but the scars across the badlands had still not fully healed. Twisted spires of half melted rock loomed over glass smooth craters pockmarking a desert of orange sand. Sand that had formed from the rust and decay of thousands of tons of burning steel from long abandoned cities. Though rarer now, sometimes the winds would uncover a new pocket of irradiated debris and scour the barren lands with a new wave of radiation. But, other than a few isolated pockets, the battered and scabbed land - bitter and sterile though it was - no longer could be said to be lethal within hours of entering it. Still, with its nightmarish hellscape and it's metal laced grit battering anyone foolish enough to enter, the area more than earned its moniker of Damnation among the survivors. It was said that only a great fool or a madman would ever ride out into Damnation. The sight of just such a rider emerging from a cloud of rust colored sand caused a stir of dread to pass through those that manned the Wall that day. Still too distant to make out details even with use of the periscope. In wilder days when the winds were still fierce and still hot with radioactive winds a brave soul might have volunteered or been coerced into exposing themselves from the protection offered by the wall to Damnation and venture on top to use a spyglass. But, as the centuries passed and the desert cooled both the Keepers and the Wall itself succumbed to the ravages of time. The sixteen meter tall line of concrete and steel that stretched from horizon to horizon was now just a stained and crumbling shadow of its former glory. Gaps showing exposing the rebar underneath were evident on both sides but, for now at least, the Wall still held. As for the Keepers themselves? That profession which was once viewed as a vital part of the defense of the remnants of humanity had gradually suffered its own form of social erosion. From a respected job to one that was used as a prison sentence to a refugee camp for society's outcasts. The current Keepers were little more than scavengers attempting to carve out their own niche from the scant protection offered by the Wall. So, they contented themselves to observing the stranger through the narrow eyepieces of the periscopes. Watching and waiting. The stranger was garbed in a fashion appropriate for desert travel. That is to say with no exposed skin and a full face breathing apparatus. The stranger's long coat and wide brimmed hat both appeared to have once been black but had long since been stained orange by the clouds of dust. Gloved hands gripped the reins of the horse tightly while glassy lensed eyes stared straight ahead while a tube extended from the mask to a chest mounted purification unit. He sat stiffly with no wasted movements and seemingly to sit impossibly still atop the saddle. If not for his upright stance and subtle adjustments to the horse's pace as it navigated the uneven terrain, he might have been mistaken for a dead man. The man was obviously still alive. The horse, however, was not. As the rider and his mount grew closer it became more and more evident that the horse was, in fact, quite dead. The eyes were gone and were now just hollow pits. Bone could be seen jutting out from the rotting flesh along the nose and exposing a bone in one foreleg and part of the ribs along the chest. Blackened rips along the horse's flank were evident where the flesh had ruptured during putrefaction and fluids now weeped from these open sores. Still, the horse walked. Stiffly and mechanically as if it's decaying flesh had somehow been stretched over an automaton. In a sense, that is exactly what had happened. "Necromancer," Bri of the Evening Watch swore. "Are you certain?" Vict asked without bothering to rise from his seat. VIct wore the copper badge used to identify a sheriff. The Wall had long since abandoned the position of sheriff, but not the badge. It was now used to identify the First among the Keepers. A position that Vict had held well into his gray haired years. Positively ancient in Wall terms. One day he knew his reflexes would slow and the hand or knife of some upstart would claim his badge. But, for now, Vict's rule had been a successful one. The few crops that would grow near the wall were plentiful and the people in the Wall were thriving as well as could be expected. They had successfully defended themselves from rival Wall tribes that had seized control of their own gates and, as much as was feasible considering the environs of living within the Wall, his people were content. Vict was considered a strong leader. A wise leader. His gray hairs were a testament to that and as long as he did not make mistakes he would be allowed to grow new ones. For now. "His mount is dead," Bri clarified, "It has been ravaged by the desert already. I do not think anything more than proximal arcana could be keeping it going now." Vict nodded and, finally, arose from the crudely constructed chair to don his own duster. He disliked walking out on the Damnation side of the wall. But confronting this stranger was his duty as First. But, no need to do so alone. "Can you tell if he's armed?" "Not yet," Bri admitted, "The light is bad and he is wearing dark clothing. I think there is an electro-rifle on his saddle but he may have a sidearm as well." "Good enough," Vict said, "We'll assume he is. Summon the others. I want at least six men joining me at the gate. And bring the coil guns with you." "Those haven't worked in decades, Vict." "No need to let him know that," Vict remarked as he donned his hat, "We'll just keep that as a surprise for him." "On it," Bri said with a grin as he scurried off down the corridor towards the living quarters beyond. Some members of the Watch may need to be woken up, Vict knew. The Watch was rarely called upon these days and some had probably long since forgotten what their shift may actually involve. Only a handful, like Bri, were still diligent enough to show up to perform the most minimum of duties. It was a distressing trend but one that Vict himself knew no way of stopping. People guarded the wall from threats along the corridors and from the goodlands. No one cared to stare into the interior. Vict sauntered towards the door that opened out into the tunnel of the Gate. He soon found himself standing before the massive doors that served as the final barrier between him and Damnation. Fifty meters behind him were doors that opened up into the Goodlands. Those doors they kept ajar most of the day to allow for ventilation. The doors before him had not been opened in years. He wondered if the mechanisms still worked. He heard the Watch assemble behind him and, without looking to count their numbers or verify they were even dressed and presentable, he signaled the doorman to activate the giant motors that would ease open the doors. It took several minutes for a crack large enough to admit a man on horseback to open. As the doors swung out and away from him, Vict marched forward. He heard the others following him. The metallic tang of the desert of Damnation stung his nostrils as he edged closer to the boundary of the badlands. As the gap widened the man and the dead horse came into view. "That's far enough!" Vict shouted. To his surprise, not to mention considerable relief, the horse stopped short and the motionless rider did not reach for a weapon. Madness was unpredictable after all. He should not expect a reasoned response from a man performing an unreasonable action. The rider sat there upon his dead horse and, presumably, studied Vict and the Watch. If he was intimidated by their presence he gave no outward sign of it. Slowly, the man lifted one hand away from the reins and reached towards himself. Vict tensed for a moment but relaxed when he saw the hand was not reaching for a holster but rather angling for the respiration unit on the chest. The stranger flipped a switch to activate the speaker. So, he just wanted to talk. That was encouraging. "I am looking for someone," the stranger's distorted voice crackled from the speaker, "Did another rider come through here some time ago?" "No," Vict answered. "Are you certain?" the rider asked, "It would have been many months ago. I can provide a description." "These gates have not been opened over ten years," Vict clarified, "He didn't come this way." The rider cocked his head to one side and then seemed to take in the expanse of the wall slowly. "Perhaps another gate, then?" he asked, "Do you communicate with the other gates?" Vict shook his head. "The tribe that took the next gate isn't exactly friendly to our cause," he explained, "The gates further down the line? They may be more neighborly but it's a long walk to find out." "I see," the rider said, "Then may I request passage through your gate?" "Are you here to start trouble?" "Yes," the man replied. Vict blinked in surprise. He had expected madness, certainly, but being honest about it was new. "Don't see as to how it benefits me to allow that then," Vict declared. He then motioned back towards the desert, "Turn around the way you came." "I can pay the toll if there is one," the stranger offered. An intriguing offer, actually. Vict almost considered it. Good coin could be valuable in trade with the cityfolk. Still, if they found out he let trouble in then the cities may also attack in retaliation. Good coin spent no better than no coin when you were dead. "Tempting, but I'll pass," Vict said, "I told you to turn around. I won't ask again." The speaker crackled as the man sighed. "Very well," the rider said, "I had hoped to do this another way. But if you insist." Quicker than he thought would have been possible, the stranger's hand flashed into the interior of his coat. It was out again in an instant and an object was hurled at him. Vict retreated half a step and reached for the knife on his own belt. To his surprise, the object landed gently on the sand near his feet. It was not an attack after all. Curious, he stepped closer and looked closer. He felt the blood drain from his face. It was not a weapon, no, but it was definitely still a threat. "You're a marshal!" Vict hissed angrily. "And you are interfering in my lawfully sworn duty," the Stranger replied, "Will you grant me passage?" This was bad. The badge that laid upon the desert floor before him was not like Vict's own. It was not a piece of metal. This was an actual biolocked minicomp. This badge could only be carried by those who had the full weight of the Restored Pan-Continental Alliance behind them as well as the Oligarch itself. Each badge was said to be a miniature mainframe that could be used to open any digital lock, access any account, and take control over any computer system if needed. If it still used a computer, it would yield to the badge if the wielder wished it. If that wasn't bad enough, if it was handled by anyone other than the biolocked owner it would administer a lethal discharge. Still, Vict hesitated. "We don't really have a lot of use for the PCA this far out in wastes," he remarked, "Figured they forgot all about us." "Just focused on other more pressing matters at the moment," the marshal clarified, "Cooperation now would be in your best interest." Vict recognized a threat when he heard one. What's more, now that the badge had been thrown out, he was certain the Oligarch itself was listening in on them. The last thing the Wall needed was a cybernetic army marching down upon them. "Yeah, well," Vict said as he stepped slightly to one side. Not quite yielding passage but not completely blocking it either. "I still have to consider the people beyond," he explained. "You have my oath my quarrel is not with you nor the people of the wall or the points beyond," the man said formally, "My bond is the apprehension of a singular individual." "Do you swear," Vict asked, "That you will cause no harm to anyone other than your current assignment?" "I make no such guarantees," the stranger countered, "I am entrusted to enforce the Oligarch's law. However, if you insist, I swear I will not exercise more force than is deemed necessary to achieve this goal and I will not interfere with any matters that I may observe that are outside the scope of my immediate objective regardless of their legal stature within the PCA save for Class II felonies or above. Such acts would supersede any oath I am authorized to provide." Legal speak for "if I see someone being murdered, raped, or dismembered I'm legally required to interfere. But I won't stop people from lying, cheating, gambling, or partaking of illegal substances." Considering the authority the badge was offering, it was actually a very generous concession. A little too generous and one that immediately raised suspicions. "And what do you expect in return for such an oath?" he asked. "You have armed men behind you," the stranger noted, "Are they available if I require the assistance of a posse?" "They're armed," Vict confirmed, "And trained for what it's worth. But I need them here." "I did not ask that they be removed from service indefinitely," the stranger said, "I am asking if I have need of additional gunmen if you will provide them." "And if I saw no?" "Your gate is mechanized," the marshal pointed out, "Presumably computerized as well. As would be many of your wall's defenses." "So I either take your oath and cooperate willingly or you take it by force?" Vict replied before grunting, "And if I tell my men to fire?" "Then you simply have to hope they kill me first before I shoot any of them," the stranger said, "Otherwise I will have their corpses start shooting at you." Vict sighed. "You also offered payment before?" he reminded the stranger. "An offer that was conditional on me not having to reveal my badge," the stranger said, "What is your response?" "Your oath then," he said, "I need something to show we enacted our duty to protect the interior." "Then you have it," the stranger said, "I swear to harm no one beyond this gate save in purview of my lawfully sworn duty and the scope of my current quarry." There was a chirp from the badge. Vict assumed this meant the Oligarch had acknowledged the oath. If memory served, the oath of a marshal was considered a law in of itself. The badge would make certain its wielder stayed true to this pledge. With lethal force if necessary. The rider came closer and now Vict could smell the rotting flesh as well as see it. The horse did not breathe, he noted. It moved silently and robotically with no external cues from its rider. "Could you hand that back to me, please?" the rider asked while pointing at the fallen badge. Vict hesitated. "It won't sting you as long as I am present and have given you authorization to touch it," the marshal assured him. Vict could not afford to lose more face in front of his men. This encounter had been humbling enough as is. He picked up the silver bar. Nothing happened. The surface was cool to the touch but did not otherwise harm him. If not for the dancing lights just below the metallic surface he might suspect it was a forgery. He handed it back to the rider and hoped he did not appear to be in a hurry to be rid of the thing. "Thank you," the rider said and looked through the tunnel ahead. "What town is beyond that gate?" he asked. "The closest one is the town of Clean Air," Vict told him and shrugged, "It's an older settlement. Mostly just a few farmers and a saloon. Not much happening there. But you can get a bed for the night if you need it at the saloon." The rider nodded and started to ride forward. Without knowing quite why he did, Vict decided to add, "If you continue west and follow the ridge line you can find the Healing Valley.." The horse froze mid step. "What did you say?" the rider's speaker crackled. "If you ride a few days west along the ridge line you will find the Healing Valley," Vict said, "At least, that's what I've heard. Everyone is heading there these days. Maybe your man is well." "These Healing Valley," the rider asked, "What is it?" "I don't know, really," Vict admitted, "Some new commune or settlement. I don't know. They say there is some sort of spring there or something that has a healing arcana. All I know is that the lands are very fertile and they say even mutants can drink from these waters and be renewed." "You said it is to the west along the ridge line?" "Yes," Vict said and, before he could add more detail, the dead horse surged forward into a gallop. The horse and rider went through the gate into the good lands at a pace no normal steed could hope to maintain. The horse kept this breakneck pace up without tiring as it flew past the settlement of clean air and angled towards the ridgeline beyond. As the sun sank the horse galloped on without showing other signs of fatigue. The rider, meanwhile, reached up with one hand to unbuckle the straps of his mask. Moving with the horse and anticipating each movement as if they were somehow joined together, he managed to free himself from the confines of the mask and breathed unhindered for the first time since leaving the Citadel across the wastes. By the time the sun rose again the horse was beyond even his ability to sustain. The leg bones had cracked until the wear of racing along the rocky path at full speed and ruptures had appeared all across its flanks. He eventually led it to the side of the road and into a small gully between some stones. There he released his grip upon its body and allowed the flesh to resume its normal decaying processes. It was of no concern anyway. He could tell he was in the right place. "Kincaid's here," he subvocalized. The implant just below his right ear heard him all the same and the Oligarch's response was immediate. "Have you made visual contact?" "No," he admitted, "But I can see evidence of his work. There is a valley below me. Lush fields of green with crops too large to grow by natural means." "You are certain this is his work?" "There's no death," he said, "I can't sense any at all around me. Even the soil. There is no decomposition taking place. The ground itself is essentially sterile. The only thing keeping these crops alive is his will." The Oligarch was silent for a moment. That in itself was troubling. It's processes worked many times faster than a human's. What could cause it to hesitate? "Repositioning a satellite," the Oligarch explained for him, "And initial telemetry indicates you may have a bigger problem than we thought. That valley extends for several kilometers to the north and south of you. I estimate its total area to be in excess of 400 square kilometers." "His power is still growing," the marshal concluded grimly. "Even our worst case projections did not account for this," the Oligarch confirmed, "The area of influence is enormous and for him to sustain that much power without arcanic blowback is unheard of. This should not be possible with the resources available to a human mind." "He's not exactly human anymore," the rider reminded the Oligarch. "No," it confirmed, "He is not. Still, the organic strain should be crippling. He must be using his own power to sustain himself. That should be creating a feedback loop." The rider nodded. "Maybe the valley is a way of bleeding off the excess?" he suggested. "Plausible," the Oligarch said, "But that creates a scaling issue. At some point he will be exerting more just to keep the blowback from consuming him than even his own enhanced vitality can maintain." "When will that happen?" "Uncertain," the Oligarch admitted, "I already stated this does not fit within current models. There is more." "Don't tell me," the rider said, "The zone of no death means that my own arcana will be diminished." "Or absent entirely," the Oligarch admitted, "Given that he cannot sustain this level of involvement indefinitely I believe this most likely indicates he is aware of you and that you are walking into a trap." "So what do you suggest?" the rider asked, "Wait it out? See if he collapses and then go in?" "The sphere of influence has already corrupted the local ecosystem and is likely impacting residents as well," the Oligarch said, "If this is allowed to progress unabated the damage is likely irreversible and may have a cascading effect on neighboring ecosystems." "So if I don't walk into the trap," the rider translated, "We may have a full on ecological meltdown that will cost millions of lives. If I do go in and try to do damage control, I'm going in without my arcana?" "You could return to the Wall and recruit more allies," the Oligarch suggested. "No good," the rider said, "Once we go in then Kincaid can twist them too. They are all living people. Can you send a drop ship in?" "If I could spare one do you think I would have sent you?" "No," the rider agreed and sighed, "All right, into the trap I go." The stranger returned his attention to the dead horse beside the road. In the short time he had been distracted a swarm of insects and all manner of flying and burrowing creatures had descended upon the animal. It's hide now was a virtual living carpet of creatures feasting upon the first real meal they had had in who knows how long. Before this he was certain it was only the power of Kincaid's aracana that had been keeping them alive. Alive but starving. Well, if Kincaid didn't know he was here before this had just sent up a big flare. Grimacing, he reached into the swarm of insects to retrieve his rifle from the saddle. Walking into the valley below was surprisingly uneventful. No one rose to challenge him nor did any feral creatures attempt to accost him. If he didn't know better, he would think this was just another agricultural sector in the PCA. In fact, now that he was closer, the crops closest to him appeared to be the standard genetically engineered high yield wheat hybrid grown in the AgSec. Only a full meter taller. As he drew closer he caught the sounds of someone in one of the fields ahead of him. Curious, he slung the rifle's strap over his shoulder and checked both pistols were firmly in their holsters. Cautiously, he approached the source of the noise. He found himself stepping into a small clearing among the dense grains occupied by an elderly man wearing what appeared to be tattered clothing that had a homespun look to it. The trousers were frayed at the ends and had been patched so many times and with such a variety of fabrics it was difficult to determine the original coloring. A brown vest covered his chest and left his arms exposed. The man was facing away and appeared to be attempting to cut down a swath of the grain using a sickle held awkwardly in the man's left arm. This was despite the fact that the man's right arm appeared to be more than twice the size of his left and had an uneven lumpy appearance as well as several gnarled scars across the surface. Holding his right arm stiffly, the man swung the tool. The stalks tumbled to the ground around him and the man cursed again. "It's growing back too damned fast!" the man shouted at last. "What is?" the stranger asked, "The wheat?" The farmer wheeled around with his blade held high as if preparing to strike. The stranger, though armed, held his hands out to the sides in a gesture of peace. The farmer looked him up and down as if evaluating him before deciding to lower his blade. "Who are you?" the farmer asked. "Just a friend passing through," the stranger replied, "I heard you back here and thought you might need some help." "Friend, eh?" the farmer asked with a snort, "You don't look like any friend I know." The stranger nodded his head towards the crops. "What seems to be the problem?" he asked. The farmer rolled his eyes back towards the recently felled grains and snorted. "Look for yourself," he instructed, "See those stalks I just cut? Watch em." The stranger did. It did not take long to notice what the farmer wished him to see. "They are regenerating," the stranger declared. "That's one way of looking at it," the farmer snarled, "Being a damned nuisance is another. There is supposed to be a path here to get back to my house. I can't clear it faster than it tries to grow back. I can't even leave those grains on the ground too long or they start sprouting as well." "Can you burn a path?" The farmer shook his head. "Doesn't work," he explained, "Fires just go out and the plants heal themselves. You're new, aren't you?" The stranger nodded. "I just came from the Wall," he explained, "I heard of a place called the Healing Valley and thought I would see it for myself." "Healing Valley?" the old man spat, "Guess now that the Minister's here calling it plain old Coppertown ain't good enough for the likes of them." "The Minister?" "Look, son," the old man said patiently, "I ain't got all day to spend here talking to the likes of you. Now, you want to talk then you can help. You reap and I'll bag 'em." The stranger seemed to consider arguing but finally nodded. He unclipped the respirator and mask from his chest before unslinging his rifle. He then doffed his coat and hat before bundling the gun and smaller items inside the confines of the coat. The stranger could be seen clearly now and the old man found himself staring at a younger man with sharp features and a hawkish beak of a nose. The stranger's hair was black and full unlike the old man's stringy gray locks. The hair was kept brushed straight back in what appeared to be a choice of convenience rather than aesthetics. The stranger's face was neither cruel nor kind nor even particularly handsome. It was just an everyman face. So why did the old man feel so certain this stranger who called himself a friend was hiding something behind those dark eyes? "Name's Yacob," the farmer introduced himself, "What do they call you?" The stranger didn't reply. He simply picked up the sickle and started hacking at the grains with quick and efficient motions. He did not have the skill nor the technique of an actual farmer, but he made up for it in speed. Yacob found himself hobbling along after the man while shoveling fallen grains into a sack. "So, not big on names, eh?" Yacob remarked, "That's fine. I'll just call you Cat for the moment." "Cat?" "Because you should mind what curiosity did to one of those," Yacob snapped, "You just keep cutting and I'll answer your questions. But only until we get to the porch. Once we reach the house the deal's done." "How far is the house?" "Not far else I wouldn't have made the offer. So stop wasting time and ask what you came for. I know you ain't here to admire wheat." "Fine," the stranger said, "Tell me about the Minister." Yacob shrugged. "Not much to tell you," he said, "He showed up here about a year ago. Big talking man like you. Wouldn't tell us his name either. Just started talking like he was a preacher man. Going on about the rightful place of man and unshackling ourselves from the burden of slavery. Real 'make the world a better place' nonsense. Folks didn't really listen to him at first. But then the miracles started happening." "Miracles?" the stranger grunted as he cut, "Like what sort of miracles?" "I was getting to that!" Yacob snapped, "Don't rush me! Now when I say 'miracles' I don't mean loaves of fishes falling from Heaven. I mean like Bailey Moskva being able to walk again. Or Happy Tam regaining his vision. People in the town just started getting better. Healthier. But it didn't stop there. The crops were dying. Only they just stopped. Vegetables that were dying on the vine the day before got better. That kind of miracle." The stranger, who was just now starting to breathe heavy from the exertion, only nodded his understanding and continued to hack away at the grains. He used to tool more like a machete than as a harvesting tool but, again, it was still better progress than Yacob could make on his own. "In the early days we all thought that, well, maybe this Minister was onto something," Yacob went on, "He kept talking prosperity and we were feeling it, ya kin? Even the most piss poor farmer was having a bumper crop. All these lame folks who worked in the mines were getting healed up. Even the sick and the dying were up and walking around. It seemed like the good days would never end and people were praising the Minister and all his bollocks." "But not you?" the stranger asked between gasps of exertion. "Oh I fell for it to," Yacob said, "Me a hardcore believer, that I was. I even stood there smiling proudly as he took my Abby into his inner circle." "Abby?" the stranger asked. "My daughter," Yacob admitted with a sigh as he bent over to pick up more of the fallen wheat, "My little girl. She was such a delight to me and looked after me after the passing of my Elsie. All of twenty two years old and when the Minister said he chose her I was proud as a peacock." The stranger slowed his frantic hacking. "Something happened?" he asked, "With Abby?" "Bah!" Yacob said, "Never you mind. That's none of your concern. I told you what you wanted to know. Now ask something else!" "Why didn't you ask him to heal your arm?" the stranger asked. Yacob froze in place and blanched. "What?" he stammered. The stranger paused and turned to point at the engorged and irregularly shaped right arm held limply at Yacob's side. "Why didn't you-?" "I heard what you said!" Yacob shouted, "Stand aside! I don't want any more of your help! Be off!" The stranger didn't move. "I meant no offense," he said, "It just appears that you have had a-" The stranger moved his hand to indicate the swollen right arm. Yacob, seeing the movement, misinterpreted and jumped backwards while yelping. To the stranger's surprise, the right arm moved. Not only did it move on its own, he heard a faint whirring sound as it did. Yacob howled in pain and dropped to the ground. Blood trickled from an open wound in the arm that wasn't there before. "Now you see what you made me do?" Yacob asked between clenched teeth, "That metal cuts right through!" The sickle fell from the marshal's limp fingers. Those bumps. He recognized them now. They were in the approximate position and size for servo motors. Which could only mean one thing. "That's a cybernetic arm," he said out loud. "'Course it it!" Yacob snapped, "I lost the real one sixteen years ago in the mines! The mechasurgeon fitted me with a new one. Never really gave me any problems until this skin started growing over top of it." Of course, the marshal realized. He should have realized. With the field of the arcana flooding the area even old wounds, healed wounds, would be affected. Growing a new arm would be impossible with the prosthetic in place. But escasing it with a new layer of skin was still possible. He felt sickened at the thought of living flesh growing over the metal arm and getting trapped inside the motors and actuators. The skin stretching and tearing only to heal over and do it again and again. He suddenly understood the bitterness of the farmer. He picked up the sickle, turned, and hacked at the vegetation with renewed vigor. Kincaid would pay for this. He would pay. "Wait," Yacob said, "I told you-" "I'm getting to your house," the marshal growled, "That was the agreement. You answered your questions and now I am doing my part." He paused for a moment to lower the blade but only for as long as it took to unbutton the cuffs of his sleeves and to roll them up. He then resumed his relentless hacking and slashing. After a few minutes of labor he found himself staggering free from the dense vegetation and standing upon a wooden platform. Blinking in confusion, he lowered the tool and realized he was standing on the porch that had been his original objective. He dropped the sickle and turned to go. He found his way blocked by a cursing Yacob limping after him while dragging the marshal's coat and rifle in his wake with his one functional arm. "Slow down!" Yacob gasped as he joined the marshal on the porch, "I can't keep up with your-" Yacob'e eyes grew wide as he froze in mid step. The marshal looked in the direction of the man's gaze to see if he could find what had alarmed the man. It took him a moment to realize it was the fine parallel lines of the scars running along the marshal's own forearms. The lines, usually too faint to see, were an angry red from his recent exertion. "It's just an implant," the marshal said between gasping breaths, "I'm a cyborg like yourself." "Like me nothing," the farmer counted, "Them's battle implants. Are you a deserter?" That was an interesting question. "Do you get many deserters here?" the stranger asked as he retrieved his property from the limp grip of the older man. "A few," Yacob admitted with a shrug, "Mostly PCA. Sometimes Oceania. Which are you?" "I'm . . . not a deserter." The old man snorted. "I'm not," the marshal said, "It's complicated." "Well," the old man said with another shrug, "At least now I know how you were able to push yourself like that. I hear those implants really juice you boys up." The marshal didn't answer. Instead he turned to take his leave. "Wait," Yacob said as he placed a restraining hand on the marshal's chest, "I didn't mean to yell at you earlier. It's just . . . it's not a good idea to talk about the Minister like that. Not out in the open. Not everyone sees him the way I do." "I understand," the marshal said and then stepped to one side, "I have inconvenienced you enough for one day." "You know him, don't you?" the old man asked as the marshal stepped up beside him, "That's why you were so keen to ask me those questions. Is that why you're here? You're after him?" "Thank you for your hospitality, Yacob," the marshal replied, "I should go." "Wait," the old man pleaded, "You should know about something if you plan on facing him." "What is that?" the marshal asked while turning to face the smaller man. With a pained expression on his face, Yacob lifted his mangled prosthetic. The marshal heard the whir of servos fighting against the flesh coating. The farmer held up his arm and showed the unlined palm of his hand to the marshal. There was a peculiar bulge there. "This," Yacob said just before a lightning bolt erupted from the palm of his hand and tore through the marshal's chest only to explode out the backside. The marshal crumbled to the porch with a look of confusion still painting his features. Tune in for our next exciting episode!
COI disclosure: own 8,147 shares of FTOC commons and plan to add more. In my opinion, FTOC (Ftac Olympus Acquisition Corp) can be one of the best SPAC plays in 2021 if you enter it at the right place. Here is why: Market Capitalization One of the key parameters of a SPAC is its market cap, it will determine how big the target can be. This is the reason when we look at PSTH, CCIV, and IPOF, we know they can have targets like Stripe, Lucid, etc. Here is a quick summary of active SPACs with at least $1.9 Billion market cap (pulled from Spacktrack as of 10:40 PM 1/26/2021, sorted by Market Cap)
SPAC
Market Cap
Status
CCIV
$6,323,850,138
Rumor with Lucid
PSTH
$5,502,002,796
No target
BFT
$3,058,765,111
DA with Paysafe
IPOF
$1,998,124,945
No target
IPOE
$1,969,231,219
DA with SoFi
FTOC
$1,911,697,949
Rumor with Payoneer
Just read this table, and you can see where my impression of "hidden gem" FTOC came from. There is only 1 SPAC with rumor AND has a larger market cap than FTOC, which is...read after me...see see ivy... But what does it really mean: the large market cap guarantees FTOC can find a solid target even their talk with Payoneer stalls. There are quite a few fintech companies with valuation above 5 billions are waiting on the sideline: Plaid, BlockFi, etc... The large market cap also defines the true floor of FTOC, in a day and age of IPOF with no target but trading at $15 premium, it is reasonable to speculate FTOC will not fall far below $11 in the worst case. FTOC Team FTOC is led by chairman (or chairwoman if we are using the right term) Mrs. Betsy Cohen. Betsy is a name tied with fintech for decades. She is the founder of Jefferson Bank, and the second female law professor after RBG on the east coast, and she owned a law firm. She has experiences all over the globe in Hong Kong, in Brazil, in Spain...Unlike many SPAC heads (looking at you Gary Cohn), she has no baggage whatsoever and just a clean trail of fabulous career. She and her Bancorp are serial fintech SPAC sponsors, with the last merged one being FTIV (FinTech Acquisition Corp), and the next one about to IPO in several days: FTAC (Athena Acquisition). FTAC will be her seventh fintech SPACs, and you can see she is starting a Greek Mythology name convention, Olympus, Athena...The imminent IPO of FTAC also signals that FTOC is making progress... CEO of FTOC is Ryan Gilbert, a guy with 20 years specialized in payment processing, which we will mention later why it is critical to have Ryan on board. Rumor Target: Payoneer We always hear about unicorn companies, but Payoneer is truly a unicorn with infinite growth potential. It is a global payment processing company focusing on B2C and C2C. Founded in New York City in 2005, it now operates in roughly 200 countries with a total of 1,500 employees spread across 21 countries. Private investors of Payoneer include CBC, Viola Ventures, Pingan (owns the tallest skyscraper in Shenzhen), Wellington Management, and others. They had 300M revenue in 2019 alone. What makes Payoneer so special compared to other payment processors such as Paypal, Western Union, Square or even the most recent SPAC Paysafe (BFT). Well Payoneer is pretty good at establishing themselves in emerging markets such as SE Asia, India, Brazil, Africa. They have a long list of partners with big names like Airbnb, eBay, JD.ID, Shopee... Here is the bombshell: on Jan 25th, eBay announced to all the Chinese sellers, that it will move away from Paypal and mitigate all sale payouts to Chinese sellers to Payoneer. All Chinese sellers will be required to register a Payoneer account starting in March. This news is so new it has not yet been picked up by major Western news outlets, but most biggest Chinese news outlets like Finance Sina have reported it on 1/26. Expect this to be a major catalyst once it is circulated here. But honestly most people will look at Payoneer on their similarity to Paysafe, because of SPAC. The answer to this question is Payoneer and Paysafe are actually not quite alike. Paysafe has an emphasis on gaming and gambling. Even though they had 1 billion revenue in 2016, Paysafe was cutting employees during 2020, when you have to question how can a fintech be affected by pandemic that much? While Payoneer is hiring left and right and expanding their operation, and just had their China Summit in December. This comparison does set up the floor for FTOC if the rumor is indeed confirmed, which I expect it will not be lower than $17 (Paysafe/BFT as of 1/26). Risk FTOC has been trading between $12 and $13 since the rumor broke on Bloomberg in 1/20/2021. With all the short squeezes happening today, it touched lower $12 with an aboslute low day volume, while most SPACs are red and probably equally affected by GME. At the price of $12, you have absolutely minimal risk to lose, and so much to gain. As I mentioned above, FTOC will not fall below $11 even the deal does not strike, it will surely find another good or even better target. Fintech and EV are the buzz words in SPAC right now. But honestly with 97% of Bloomberg rumor confirmed, and Betsy Cohen, I would bet my left testicle this deal will go through. The upside of FTOC depends on several factors, timing is one of them. Betsy Cohen has a very consistent history of delivering DA on time, just look at FTIV timeline:
Nov 20th. 2020: Bloomberg rumor of Perella Weinberg look for SPAC to go public Nov 30th, 2020: Bloomberg rumor of talk with FTIV Dec 30th, 2020: DA signed
If we expect a similar timeline for FTOC:
Jan 20th, 2021: Bloomberg rumor of talk with FTOC Feb 20th, 2021: DA signed?
The opportunity cost is really low given you just need to hold it for less than a month, with catalysts are on the way (eBay news). TLDR: FTOC is a large cap SPAC led by fintech old hands, with rumor target being a unicorn, and trading at a price with minimal risk.
Old Austin Tales: Forgotten Video Arcades of The 1970s & 80s
In the late 1980s and early 1990s when I was a young teen growing up in far North Austin, it was a popular custom for many boys in the neighborhood to assemble at the local Stop-N-Go after school on a regular basis for some Grand Champion level tournaments in Street Fighter 2 and Mortal Kombat. The collective insistence of our mothers and fathers to get out of the house, get some exercise, and refrain from playing NES or Sega on the television only led us to seek out more video games at the convenience store down the road. Much allowance and lunch money was spent as well as hours that should have been devoted to homework among the 8 or 9 regular boys in attendance, often challenging each other to 'Best of 5' matches. I myself played Dhalsim and SubZero, and not very well, so I rarely ever made it to the 5th match. The store workers frequently kicked us out for the day only to have us return when they weren't working the counter anymore if not the next day. There is something about that which has been lost in the present day. While people can today download the latest games on Steam or PSN or in the app store on your smartphone, you can't just find arcade games in stores and restaurants like you used to be able to. And so the fun of a spontaneous 8 or 10 person multiplayer video game tournament has been confined to places like bars, pool halls, Pinballz or Dave&Busters. But in truth it was that ubiquity of arcade video games, how you could find them in any old 7-11 or Laundromat, which is what killed the original arcades of the early 1980s before the Great Crash of 1983 when home video game consoles started to catch up to what you saw in the arcade. I was born in the mid 1970s so I missed out on Pong. I was kindergarten age when the Golden Age of Arcade Games took place in the early 1980s. There used to be a place called Skateworld on Anderson Mill Road that was primarily for roller skating but had a respectable arcade in its own right. It was there that I honed my skills on the original Tron, Pac Man, Galaga, Pole Position, Defender, and so many others. In the 1980s I remember visiting all the same mall arcades as others in my age group. There was Aladdin's Castle in Barton Creek Mall, The Gold Mine in Highland, and another Gold Mine in Northcross which was eventually renamed Tilt. Westgate Mall also had an arcade but being a north austin kid I never went there until later in the mid 1990s. There were also places like Malibu Grand Prix and Showbiz Pizza and Chuck-E-Cheeze, all of which had fairly large arcades for kids which were the secondary attraction. If you're of a certain age you will remember Einsteins and LeFun on the Drag. They were there for a few decades going back way before the Slacker era. Lesser known is that the UT Student Union basement used to have an arcade that was comparable to either or both of those places. Back in the pre-9/11 days it was much easier to sneak in if you even vaguely looked like you could be a UT student. But there was another place I was too young to have experienced called Smitty's up further north on 183 at Lake Creek in the early 1980s. I never got to go there but I always heard about it from older kids at the time. It was supposed to have been two stories of wall to wall games with a small snack bar. I guess at the time it served a mostly older teen crowd from Westwood High School and for that reason younger kids my age weren't having birthday parties there. It wasn't around very long, just a few years during the Golden Age of Arcades. It is with almost-forgotten early arcades like that in mind that I wanted to share with y'all some examples of places from The Golden Age of the Video Arcade in Austin using some old Statesman articles I've found. Maybe someone of a certain age on here will remember them. I was curious what they were like, having missed out by being slightly too young to have experienced most of them first hand. I also wanted to see the original reaction to them in the press. I had a feeling there was some pushback from school/parent/civic groups on these facilities showing up in neighborhood strip malls or next to schools, and I was right to suspect. But I'm getting ahead of myself. First let's list off some places of interest. Be sure to speak up if you remember going to any of these, even if it was just for some other kid's birthday party. Unfortunately some of the only mentions about a place are reports of a crime being committed there, such as our first few examples. Forgotten Arcade #1 Fun House/Play Time Arcade - 2820 Guadalupe June 15, 1975
ARCADE ENTHUSIASM A gang fight involving 20 30 people erupted early Saturday morning in front of an arcade on Guadalupe Street. The owner of the Fun House Arcade at 282J Guadalupe told police pool cues, lug wrenches, fists and a shotgun were displayed during the flurry. Police are unsure what started the fisticuffs, but one witness at the scene said it pitted Chicanos against Anglos. During the fight the owner of the arcade said a green car stopped at the side of the arcade and witnesses reported the barrel of a shotgun sticking out. The crowd wisely scattered and only a 23-year-old man was left lying on the ground. He told police he doesn't know what happened.
ARCADE ROBBED A former employee of Play Time Arcade, 2820 Guadalupe, was charged Tuesday in connection with the Tuesday afternoon robbery of his former business. Police have issued a warrant for the arrest of Ronnie Magee, 22, of 1009 Aggie Lane, Apt. 306. Arcade attendant Sam Garner said he had played pool with the suspect an hour before the robbery. He told police the man had been fired from the business two weeks earlier. Police said a man walked in the arcade about 2:45 p m. with a blue steel pistol and took $180. Magee is charged with first degree aggravated robbery. Bond was set on the charge at $15,000.
First it was called Fun House and then renamed Play Time a year later. I'm not sure what kind of arcade games beyond Pong and maybe Asteroids they could have had at this place. The peak of the Pinball craze was supposed to be around 1979, so they might have had a few pinball machines as well. A quick search of youtube will show you a few examples of 1976 video games like Death Race. The location is next to Ken's Donuts where PokeBowl is today where the old Baskin Robbins location was for many years. Forgotten Arcade #2 Green Goth - 1121 Springdale Road May 15, 1984
A 23-year-old man pleaded guilty Monday to a January 1983 murder in East Austin and was sentenced to 15 years in prison. Jim Crowell Jr. of Austin admitted shooting 17-year-old Anthony Rodriguez in the chest with a shotgun after the two argued outside the Green Goth, a games arcade at 1121 Springdale Road, on Jan. 23, 1983. Crowell had argued with Rodriguez and a friend of Rodriguez at the arcade, police said. Crowell then went to his house, got a shotgun and returned to the arcade, witnesses said. When the two friends left the arcade, Rodriguez was shot Several weeks ago Crowell had reached a plea bargain with prosecutors for an eight-year prison term, but District Judge Bob Perkins would not accept the sentence, saying it was shorter than sentences in similar cases. After further plea bargaining, Crowell accepted the 15-year prison sentence.
I can't find anything else on Green Goth except reports about this incident with a murder there. There is at least one other report from 1983 around the time of Crowell's arrest that also refer to it as an arcade but reports the manager said the argument started over a game of pool. It's possible this place might have been more known for pool. Forgotten Arcades #3 & #4 Games, Etc. - 1302 S. First St Muther's Arcade - 2532 Guadalupe St August 23, 1983
Losing the magic touch - Video Arcades have trouble winning the money game It was going to be so easy for Lawrence Villegas, a video game junkie who thought he could make a fast buck by opening up an arcade where kids could plunk down an endless supply of quarters to play Pac-Man, Space Invaders and Asteroids. Villegas got together with a few friends, purchased about 30 video games and opened Games, Etc. at 1302 S. First St in 1980. .,--.... For a while, things, went great Kids waited in line to spend their money to drive race cars, slay dragons and save the universe. AT THE BEGINNING of 1982, however, the bottom fell out, and Villegas' revenues fell from $400 a week to $25. Today, Games, Etc. is vacant Villegas, 30, who is now working for his parents at Tony's Tortilla Factory, hasn't decided what he'll do with the building. "I was hooked on Asteroids, and I opened the business to get other people hooked, too," Villegas said. "But people started getting bored, and it wasn't worth keeping the place open. In the end, I sold some machines for so little it made me sick." VILLEGAS ISNT the only video game operator to experience hard times, video game manufacturers and distributors 'It used to be fairly common to get $300 a week from a machine. Now we rarely get more than $100 . Pac-Man's a lost cause. Six months ago, you could resell a Pac-Man machine for $1,600. Now, you're lucky to get $950 if you can find a buyer." Ronnie Roark says. In the past year, business has dropped 25 percent to 65 percent throughout the country, they say. Most predict business will get even worse before the market stabilizes. Video game manufacturers and operators say there are several reasons for the sharp and rapid decline: Many video games can now be played at home on television, so there's no reason to go to an arcade. The novelty of video games has worn off. It has been more than a decade since the first ones hit the market The decline can be traced directly to oversaturation or the market arcade owners say. The number of games in Austin has quadrupled since 1981, and it's not uncommon to see them in coin-operated laundries, convenience stores and restaurants. WITH SO MANY games to choose from, local operators say, Austinites be came bored. Arcades still take in thousands of dollars each week, but managers and owners say most of the money is going to a select group of newer games, while dozens of others sit idle. "After awhile, they all seem the same," said Dan Moyed, 22, as he relaxed at Muther's Arcade at 2532 Guadalupe St "You get to know what the game is going to do before it does. You can play without even thinking about it" Arcade owners say that that, in a nutshell, is why the market is stagnating. IN THE PAST 18 months, Ronnie Roark, owner of the Back Room at 2015 E. Riverside Drive, said his video business has dropped 65 to 75 percent Roark, . who supplied about 160 video games to several Austin bars and arcades, said the instant success of the games is what led to their demise. "The technology is not keeping up with people's demand for change," said Roark, who bought his first video game in 1972. "The average game is popular for two or three months. We're sending back games that are less than five months old." Roark said the market began dropping in March 1982 and has been declining steadily ever since. "The drop started before University of Texas students left for the summer in 1982," Roark said. "We expected a 25 percent drop in business, and we got that, and more. It's never really picked up since then. - "It used to be fairly common to get $300 a week from a machine. Now we rarely get more than $100. 1 was shocked when I looked over my books and saw how much things had dropped." TO COMBAT THE slump, Roark said, he and some arcade owners last year cut the price of playing. Even that didn't help, he said. Old favorites, such as Pac-Man, which once took in hundreds of dollars each week, he said, now make less than $3 each. "Pac-Man's a lost cause," he said. "Six months ago, you could resell a Pac-Man machine for $1,600. Now, you're lucky to get $950 if you can find a buyer." Hardest hit by the slump are the owners of the machines, who pay $3,500 to $5,000 for new products and split the proceeds with the businesses that house them. SALEM JOSEPH, owner of Austin Amusement and Vending Co., said his business is off 40 percent in the past year. Worse yet, some of his customers began returning their machines, and he's having a hard time putting them back in service. "Two years ago, a machine would generate enough money to pay for itself in six months,' said Joseph, who supplies about 250 games to arcades. "Now that same machine takes 18 months to pay for itself." As a result, Joseph said, he'll buy fewer than 15 new machines this year, down from the 30 to 50 he used to buy. And about 50 machines are sitting idle in his warehouse. "I get calls every day from people who want to sell me their machines," Joseph said. "But I can't buy them. The manufacturers won't buy them from me." ARCADE OWNERS and game manufacturers hope the advent of laser disc video games will buoy the market Don Osborne, vice president of marketing for Atari, one of the largest manufacturers of video games, said he expects laser disc games to bring a 25 percent increase in revenues next year. The new games are programmed to give players choices that may affect the outcome of the game, Os borne said. "Like the record and movie industries, the video game industry is dependent on products that stimulate the imagination," Osborne said "One of the reasons we're in a valley is that we weren't coming up with those kinds of products." THE FIRST of the laser dis games, Dragonslayer and Star Wan hit the market about two months ago. Noel Kerns, assistant manager of The Gold Mine Arcade in Northcross Mall, says the new games are responsible for a $l,000-a-week increase in revenues. Still, Kerns said, the Gold Mine' total sales are down 20 percent iron last summer. However, he remain optimistic about the future of the video game industry. "Where else can you come out of the rain and drive a Formula One race car or save the universe?" hi asked. Others aren't so optimistic. Roark predicted the slump will force half of all operators out of business and will last two more years. "Right now, we've got a great sup ply and almost no demand," Roark said. "That's going to have to change before things get- significantly better."
Well there is a lot to take from that long article, among other things, that the author confused "Dragonslayer" with "Dragon's Lair". I lol'd. Anyone who has been to Emo's East, formerly known as The Back Room, knows they have arcade games and pool, but it's mostly closed when there isn't a show. That shouldn't count as an arcade, even though the former owner Ronnie Roark was apparently one of the top suppliers of cabinet games to the area during the Golden Era. Any pool hall probably had a few arcade games at the time, too, but that's not the same as being an arcade. We also learn from the same article of two forgotten arcades: Muthers at 2522 Guadalupe where today there is a Mediterranean food restaurant, and another called Games, Etc. at 1302 S.First that today is the site of an El Mercado restaurant. But the article is mostly about showing us how bad the effects were from the crash at the end of the Golden Era. It was very hard for the early arcades to survive with increasing competition from home game consoles and personal computers, and the proliferation of the games into stores and restaurants. Forgotten Arcades #5 #6 & #7 Computer Madness - 2414 S. Lamar Blvd. Electronic Encounters - 1701 W Ben White Blvd (Southwood Mall) The Outer Limits Amusements Center - 1409 W. Oltorf March 4, 1982
'Quartermania' stalks South Austin School officials, parents worried about effects of video games A fear Is haunting the video game business. "We call it 'quartermania.' That's fear of running out of quarters," said Steve Stackable, co-owner of Computer Madness, a video game and foosball arcade at 2414 S. Lamar Blvd. The "quartermania" fear extends to South Austin households and schools, as well. There it's a fear of students running out of lunch money and classes to play the games. Local school officials and Austin police are monitoring the craze. They're concerned that computer hotspots could become undesirable "hangouts" for students, or that truancy could increase because students (high-school age and younger) will skip school to defend their galaxies against The Tempest. So far police fears have not been substantiated. Department spokesmen say that although more than half the burglaries in the city are committed by juveniles during the daytime, they know of no connection between the break-ins and kids trying to feed their video habit But school and parental worries about misspent time and money continue. The public outcry in September 1980 against proposals to put electronic game arcades near two South Austin schools helped persuade city officials to reject the applications. One proposed location was near Barton Hills Elementary School. The other was South Ridge Plaza at William Cannon Drive and South First Street across from Bedlchek Junior High School. Bedichek principal B.G. Henry said he spoke against the arcade because "of the potential attraction it had for our kids. I personally feel kids are so drawn to these things, that It might encourage them to leave the school building and play hookey. Those things have so much compulsion, kids are drawn to them like a magnet Kids can get addicted to them and throw away money, maybe their lunch money. I'm not against the video games. They may be beneficial with eye-hand coordination or even with mathematics, but when you mix the video games during school hours and near school buildings, you might be asking for problems you don't need." A contingent from nearby Pleasant Hill Elementary School joined Bedichek in the fight back in 1980, although principal Kay Beyer said she received her first formal call about the games last Week from a mother complaining that her child was spending lunch money on them. Beyer added that no truancy problems have been related to video game-playing at a nearby 7-11 store. Allen Poehl, amusement game coordinator for Austin's 7-11 stores, said company policy rules out any game-playing by school-age youth during school hours. Fulmore Junior High principal Bill Armentrout said he is working closely with operators of a nearby 7-1 1 store to make sure their policy is enforced. The convenience store itself, and not necessarily the video games, is a drawing card for older students and drop-outs, Armentrout said. Porter Junior High principal Marjorie Ball said that while video games aren't a big cause of truancy, "the money (spent on the games) is a big factor." Ball said she has made arrangements with nearby businesses to call the school it students are playing the games during school hours. "My concern is that kids are basically unsupervised, especially at the 24-hour grocery stores. That's a late hour for kids to be out. I would like to see them (games) unplugged at 10 p.m.," adds Joslin Elementary principal Wayne Rider. Several proprietors of video game hot-spots say they sympathize with the concerns of parents and school officials. No one under 18 is admitted without a parent to Chuck E. Cheese's Pizza Time Theatre at 4211 S. Lamar. That rule, says night manager David Dunagan, "keeps it from being a high school hangout. This is a family place." Jerry Zollar, owner of J.J. Subs in West Wood Shopping Center on Bee Cave Road, rewards the A's on the report cards of Eanes school district students with free video games. "It's kind of a community thing we do in a different way. I've heard from both teachers and parents . . . they thought this was a good idea," said Zollar. Electronic Encounters in Southwood Mall last year was renovated into a brightly lit arcade. "We're trying to get away from the dark, barroom-type place. We want this to be a place for family entertainment We won't let kids stay here during school hours without a written note from their parents, and we're pretty strict about that," said manager Kelly Roberts. Joyce Houston, who manages The Outer Limits amusements center at 1409 W. Oltorf St. along with her husband, said, "I wouldn't let my children go into some of the arcades I've visited. I'm a concerned parent, too. We wanted a place where the whole family could come and enjoy themselves."
Well you can see which way the tone of all these articles is going. There were some crimes committed at some arcades but all of them tended to have a negative reputation for various reasons. Parents and teachers were very skeptical of the arcades being in the neighborhoods to the point of petitioning the City Government to restrict them. Three arcades are mentioned besides Chuck-E-Cheese. Electronic Encounters in Southwood Mall, The Outer Limits amusements center at 1409 W. Oltorf, and Computer Madness, a "video game and foosball arcade" at 2414 S. Lamar Blvd. Forgotten Arcade #8 Smitty's Galaxy of Games - Lake Creek Parkway February 25, 1982
Arcades fighting negative image Video games have swept across America, and Williamson and Travis counties have not been immune. In a two-part series, Neighbor examines the effects the coin-operated machines have had on suburban and small-town life. Cities have outlawed them, religious leaders have denounced them and distraught mothers have lost countless children to their voracious appetites. And still they march on, stronger and more numerous than before. A new disease? Maybe. A wave of invading aliens from outer space? On occasion. A new type of addiction? Certainly. The culprit? Video games. Although the electronic game explosion has been mushrooming throughout the nation's urban areas for the past few years, its rippling effects have just recently been felt in the suburban fringes of North Austin and Williamson County. In the past year, at least seven arcades armed with dozens of neon quarter-snatchers have sprung up to lure teens with thundering noises and thousands of flashing seek-and-destroy commands. Critics say arcades are dens of iniquity where children fall prey to the evils of gambling. But arcade owners say something entirely different. "Everybody fights them (arcades), they think they are a haven for drug addicts. It's just not true," said Larry Grant of Austin, who opened Eagle's Nest Fun and Games on North Austin Avenue in Georgetown last September. "These kids are great" Grant said the gameroom "gives teenagers a place to come. Some only play the games and some only talk. In Georgetown, if you're from the high school, this is it." He said he's had very few disturbances, and asks "undesirables" to leave. "We've had a couple of rowdies. That's why I don't have any pool tables they tend to attract that type of crowd," Grant said. Providing a place for teens to congregate was also the reason behind Ron and Carol Smith's decision to open Smitty's Galaxy of Games on Lake Creek Parkway at the entrance to Anderson Mill. "We have three teenage sons, and as soon as the oldest could drive, it became immediately apparent that there was no place to go around here," said Ron, an IBM employee who lives in Spicewood at Balcones. "This prompted us to want to open something." The business, which opened in August, has been a huge success with both parents and youngsters. "Hundreds of parents have come to check out our establishment before allowing their children to come, and what they see is a clean, safe environment managed by adults and parents," Ron said. "We've developed an outstanding rapport with the community." Video arcades "have a reputation that we have to fight," said Carol. Kathy McCoy of Georgetown, who last October opened Krazy Korner on Willis Street in Leander, agrees. "We've got a real good group of kids," she said. "There's no violence, no nothing. Parents can always find their kids at Krazy Korner." While all the arcade owners contacted reported that business is healthy, if not necessarily lucrative, it's not as easy for video entrepreneurs to turn a profit as one might imagine. A sizeable investment is required. Ron Smith paid between $2,800 and $5,000 for each of the 30 electronic diversions at his gameroom. Grant said his average video game grosses about $50 a week, and his "absolute worst" game, Armor Attack, only $20 a week. The top machines (Defender and Pac-Man) can suck in an easy $125 a week. That's a lot of quarters, 500 to be exact but the Eagle's Nest and Krazy Korner pass half of them on to Neelley Vending Company of Austin which rents them their machines. "At 25 cents a shot, it takes an awful lot of people to pay the bills," said Tom Hatfield, district manager for Neelley. He added that an owner's personality and the arcade's location can make or break the venture. The game parlor must be run "by an understanding person, someone with patience," Hatfield said. "They cannot be too demanding on the kids, yet they can't let them run all over them." And they must be located in a spot "with lots of foot traffic," such as a shopping center or near a good restaurant, he said. "And being close to a school really helps." "Video games are going to be here permanently, but we're going to see some operations not going because of the competition," which includes machines in virtually every convenience store and supermarket, Hatfield said.
This article talks about three arcades. One in Georgetown called Eagles Nest, another in Leander called Krazy Korner, and a third called Smitty's Galaxy of Games on Lake Creek Parkway "on the fringes of North Austin". This is the one I remember the older kids talking about when I was a little kid. There was once a movie theater across the street from the Westwood High School football stadium and behind that was Smitty's. Today I think the building was bulldozed long ago and the space is part of the expanded onramp to 183 today. Eventually another unrelated arcade was built next to the theater that became Alamo Lakeline. It was another site of some unrecorded epic Street Fighter 2 and Mortal Kombat tournaments in the 90s. But the article written before the end of the Golden Era tell us much about the pushback I was talking about earlier. Early arcades were seen as "dirty" places in some circles, and the owners of the arcades in Williamson County had to stress how "clean" their establishments were. This other article from a couple of weeks later tells of how area school officials weren't worried about video games and tells us more arcades in Round Rock and Cedar Park. Apparently the end of the golden age lasted a bit longer than usual in this area. At some point in the next few years the bubble burst, and places like Smitty's were gone by the late 80s. But the distributors quoted earlier were right that arcade games weren't going completely away. In the mid 1980s LeFun opened up next in the Scientology building at 2200 Guadalupe on the drag. Down a few doors past what used be a coffee shop and a CVS was Einsteins Arcade. Both of those survived into the 21st century. I remember the last time I was at Einsteins I got my ass beat in Tekken by a kid half my age. heheh That's all for today. There were no Bonus Pics in the UT archive of arcades (other than the classical architectural definition). I wanted to pass on some Bonus newspaper articles (remember to click and zoom in with the buttons on the right to read) about Austin arcades anyway but first a small story. I mentioned earlier the secret of the UT Student Union. I have no idea what it looks like now but in the 90s there was a sizable arcade in with the bowling alley in the basement. Back in 1994 when I used to sneak in, they featured this bizarre early attempt at virtual reality games. I found an old Michael Barnes Statesman article about it dated February 11, 1994. Some highlights:
Hundreds of students and curiosity-seekers lined up at the University of Texas Union to play three to five minutes of Dactyl Nightmare, Flying Aces or V-Tol, three-dimensional games from Kramer Entertainment. Nasty weather delayed the unloading of four huge trunks containing the machines, which resemble low pulpits. Still, players waited intently for a chance to shoot down a fighter jet, operate a tilt-wing Harrier or tangle with a pterodactyl. Today, tickets will go on sale in the Texas Union lobby at 11:30 a.m. for playing slots between noon and 6 p.m. Players, fitted with full helmets, throttles and power packs, stood on shiny gray and yellow platforms surrounded by a circular guard rail. Seen behind the helmet's goggles were computer simulated landscapes, not unlike the most sophisticated video games, with controls and enemies viewed in deep space. "You're on a platform waiting to fight a human figure," said Jeff Vaughn, 19, of Dactyl Nightmare. "A pterodactyl swoops down and tries to pick you up. You have to fight it off. You are in the space and can see your own body and all around you. But if you try to walk, you have to use that joy stick to get around." "I let the pterodactyl carry me away so I could look down and scan the board," said Tom Bowen of the same game. "That was the way I found out where the other player was." "Yeah, it's cool just to stand there and not do anything," Vaughn said. The mostly young, mostly male crowd included the usual gaming fanatics, looking haggard and tense behind glasses and beards. A smattering of women and children also pressed forward in a line that snaked past the lobby and into the Union's retail shops. "I don't know why more women don't play. Maybe because the games are so violent," said Jennifer Webb, 24, a psychology major whose poor eyesight kept her from becoming a fighter pilot in real life. "If the Air Force won't take me, virtual reality will." "They use stereo optics moving at something like 60 frames a second," said computer science major Alex Aquila, 19. "The images are still pretty blocky. But once you play it, you'll want to play it again and again." With such demand for virtual reality, some gamesters wondered why an Austin video arcade has not invested in at least one machine.
The gameplay looked like this. Bonus Article #1 - "Video fans play for own reasons" (Malibu Grand Prix) - March 11, 1982 Bonus Article #2 - "Pac-Man Cartridge Piques Interest" - April 13, 1982 Bonus Article #3 - "Video Games Fail Consumer" - January 29, 1984 Bonus Article #4 - "Nintendoholics/Modems Unite" - January 25, 1989 Bonus Article #5 and pt 2 "Two girls missing for a night found at arcade" (truly dedicated young gamers) - August 7, 2003
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