GME EndGame part 3: A new opponent enters the ring
Wow - what a week. This is an extension of my DD series on GME. If you haven’t read them and have time, they will provide some background on my previous predictions, some of which have already come true.
Previous Important Posts
EndGame Part 1 (DTC Infinity) covered the short positions, the float, and potential snowball impacts of increasing prices, and argued that part of the reason that shorts haven’t closed was that it was pretty much impossible for shorts to close
EndGame Part 2 covered Cohen, fair market cap analysis, and potential investors, in which I talked about the amazing mid-to-long term potential for GME.
The story here is more complex than paid media articles would like you to believe. GME has been driven up by 3 different forces:
Organic buying
There is a mixture of growing positive sentiment in the investor world (not just WSB) about GME’s future
There’s been a lot of good due diligence shared not just on WSB but even outside (for example, see gmedd.com)
The Citron Backfire
Shorts were on the ropes and kept looking for hail mary’s. They went to Citron and coordinated a dump to try to bring the price down.
However, this backfired. Citron is so disliked in the industry that new wealth poured into GME in the face of Andrew Left’s pleas. Even when Benzinga brought Andrew Left on air, minutes after he leftthey bought shares live on their show.
Once the organic buying started, we rolled into a gamma squeeze. Many people written about the gamma squeeze so I won’t repeat, see this post for an example.
Ultra low liquidity - In EndGame part 1, I talked about how the actual actively traded shares are much lower than the reported float, and share availability has been reducing driven by lots of diamond hands, not just among smaller guys like us but the larger folks too.
I believe there were some short covers on Friday, but Ortex was still estimating 71M shares short at the eod.
However, not many people have talked about why it went down
Why did GME come down?
Here’s where things got interesting for me, and something I think happened again today (Monday) when GME climbed up over 100% but then had a rapid reversal, closing 20% above yesterday but closing below open. So Friday looked like a slam dunk - gamma squeeze, no shorts available to short, puts were getting exceedingly expensive as a short tactic. What happened? This is my fan fiction, based on what I saw. I believemarket-makerstook a non-neutral stance and began actively shorting the stock after the second halt. Market-makers are responsible for maintaining liquidity and functioning in the stock market, but they also have abilities that others don’t - for example they are legally allowed to naked short for “liquidity purposes”. They also have the ability to halt trading. There were two halts in the day on Friday: First, when GME was up 69% (heh heh), and then a few minutes later when it kept climbing after the first halt was relaxed. Note that at the time of the first halt, the bid-ask spread was $10 on the underlying a huge signal that there just were not enough shares to buy. However, after the second halt, something strange happened. Whereas a few minutes prior, there were no sellers willing to sell their shares below $75, within 15 minutes after the halt there were sellers at 70, 65, 60, and 56. Where did these sellers come from? Incredible momentum reversal on Friday 1/22 to push the price not too far above the 60c strike price. My speculation? This was a coordinated naked short ladder attack. In this type of attack, short seller A sells to short seller B, who then turns around to short seller A at a lower price, etc. and with a very small amount of capital you can wreck the momentum of a stock and make people think that others are running for the exits. Notice how the stock dropped from a high of $75 on Friday to below 60 - the highest expiring SP for the 1/22 options, and stayed tight in range for the rest of the day. Now, for compliance reasons, MM are required to be neutral by EOD, so 20 minutes before close, MMs had to buy back all their short positions, which led to the strong close above 60. All this led me to believe that the real fair market price for GME was above $65. Without the market makers interference, GME would have closed higher.
A repeat on Monday
The short ladder attack repeated on Monday. GME opened strong above $90, and quickly climbed to a high above $155 before it was halted, immediately after the halt, a short ladder attack again drove the price down Dejavu - Incredible Momentum Reversal after trading halts. Both days, there were rapid and significant reversals in momentum. Now, I kept wondering - why would MM’s take the side of the shorts? What’s in it for them? One theory was that they were not adequately hedged, with the low liquidity of the stock meaning that the price was moving up too fast for them to acquire the shares they needed to. But then the news hit today:
Shorts have pulled new dirty tactics each time they’ve been pushed to the edge. Paid media attacks, Citron’s fluff tweet + coordinated shorting, and now they’ve got the actual people who get all the order flow on their side. On the other hand, GME is still up over 20% and now trading at $88.00 after hours, which is well above the previous day’s high. https://preview.redd.it/rr5qet4ipkd61.png?width=724&format=png&auto=webp&s=96d28bf446a714906712503726f5903a681d5368 What this tells me is that GME’s true price is still being suppressed. They are using every tactic possible, even changing the bid-ask spread rules on options to specifically target retail’s buying of options. We’re now playing the game against the folks who write the rules of the game. Some shorts may have covered today - with prices below $60 at one point they had some great opportunities to. However, there is no way all of the shorts who need to exit covered today. The short position still lost 20% from yesterday. They’ve got more fingers in the dam, but it’s definitely cracking. Also, every call option purchased prior to 1/25 is ITM and profitable, while every put option purchased prior to 1/25 is OTM. And, for some reason, the SEC still doesn’t want to enforce the threshold securities list for GME, where it’s now been on for more than 30 days in a highly covered “short squeeze”. https://preview.redd.it/rbrf6khjpkd61.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e4f432ff02dbf475a03cc68c54a5a0f5f0de429
Margin impacts:
Note that at this point, most brokers have increased margin on GME. This means that people that are long or short on margin will need to put up capital to hold their positions. This also means puts will get more expensive as people who sell puts will have to maintain 100% of the notional in their accounts to secure the put, so MMs will have fewer retail sellers of puts to absorb the demand. That means it’s not a bad idea to sell puts to acquire shares if you’re aiming for the long-term and not the squeeze, but keep in mind you’ll need the exact same capital as if you’d bought the shares, so it’s up to you on this. For shorts, a margin increase while the price is moving against you (even with retracements) is no good.
My speculation
Cohen and the GME board have been strangely silent this entire run. It’s possible they can’t say anything at all during the pre-earnings quiet period, but I’m sure they can see what’s happening.
MMs will continue to play dirty, but at the same time they will need to continue to need to buy GME shares to delta hedge 1/29 and later ITM options as we get closer to expiry.
Things to be careful about
As you can see, this is no easy win. I've been in GME for a few months but I've seen almost every trick in the book. In addition to the suggestions I wrote about in this post, here’s some things to be careful about.
Be careful about swapping ITM calls for OTM calls: it can be tempting to trade-up your options for higher return, but be mindful of the delta impact. You may actually be driving the sale of shares by MMs when you don’t mean to. For example, if you sell a .5 delta call for 2 .2 delta calls, that’s net reduction of 10 shares that MMs have to hold long as leverage.
Be careful about being short any calls this week: Not only do you limit your upside (which is dumb in the prospect of a squeeze), you could end up in a nightmare scenario. A call that ends OTM on Friday could end up ITM after hours if you didn’t sell it, and you may get assigned while the underlying continues to go up.
There are a few other dirty tactics shorts can play. I’m not specifically going to share them here because I don’t want to give the ideas circulation, but
Choose your own limit sells based on personal sell points. Don’t copy others and don’t try to be memey. Make your own decisions.
Stop sharing your positions publicly. I know this is anti-wsb, and I think sharing them is great for this community, but in the case of GME it’s an attack vector for you.
Be careful of holding weeklies until expiration. Remember the multiple trading halts? What if trading gets halted on Friday at 2pm and doesn’t resume for the rest of the day? All your 1/29 calls would expire worthless. Depending on your broker and your cash positions, maybe even your ITM ones. Roll (or sell, if you’re taking profits) your weeklies well before expiration.
Be careful about buying on margin. Brokers are rapidly increasing margins. If you bought on margin with 2:1 leverage, and the stock went up 100%, you’d be in margin call even without a margin change. If the broker moves margin against you, you’ll get to margin call faster.
Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I’ve been in GME long enough to know that just when you think going up is a sure thing (remember last Monday with the short sale restriction?), you can be surprised by a new trick. If you bet it all on weeklies all at once, you may not be able to recover from being wrong on the timing. Consider longer expiry or spreading your purchases out. I’ve held through multiple 30-40% drawdowns in the underlying; and held through a 50% drawdown today, so you need to be ready for the volatility.
Watch out for stop loss hunts. It’s common practice for shorts to hunt for stop losses for cheap shares. If you’ve set a stop loss, be really sure about it.
This is not financial advice; do your own DD. I’m holding over $1M in shares and calls.
1/26 Update
Hi everyone. Sorry for not posting or replying to comments. I was auto-banned from WSB when this post was auto-deleted by the auto-mod. Thanks to u/zjz to reversing the auto-deletion of the post though as it looked like it was helpful to the community. Hope you all made a ton of money today! Quick Notes:
At an after-hours price of $209 a share, every call option, for every expiry, for every strike price is in-the-money. This is the third time this has happened for GME recently. Amazing. What this means now is that market makers will need to buy a lot of shares to hedge for the calls expiring this week. Heed my above warnings.
At this price, shorts will start to get liquidated. Combining the 400% weekly gain with the margin requirements increasing across the board, brokers will force close short positions. Starting maybe with the small guys, but it will cause a ripple effect. Things could move fast. Some funds may get additional bailouts this week to hold out.
You need to decide your own exit. Only you know how much $ you're playing with, how much you're willing to lose, how important the $ is to you, etc. Minimize you're regret, don't maximize your profits. If you are thinking about taking profits this week, spread out your sells so you don't kick yourself over timing things poorly. Personally, I think we are in unprecedented territory and that there's no way all of the shorts have exited already, so we're not done. I could be wrong. See EndGame part 1.
Close spreads. With every call ITM, you are at the risk of early-assignment. If you don't watch closely, you could be hit with sky-high hard-to-borrow fees and get killed on what you thought was a profitable trade.
Watch for ripple effects. This is already happening. When funds get liquidated, they have to buy back all their other shorts (see AMC, BBBY) and sell their longs (look at BABA after-hours). Want to play GME without playing GME? Maybe throw a little $ at BBBY. You do you.
In EndGame Part 2, I talked about potential investors, and how the higher price is gonna attract the bigger $. Today we saw Chamath, Winklevoss, and others. And then Elon tweeted and simultaneously stimulated the buying frenzy and scared the crap out of shorts. I'm just gonna copy what I said about this potentiality
Elon: (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar?Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety.Elon couldbuy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur andaspiring twitter-meme-godwould absolutely wreck the game.
If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀
First edit: Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. Thank you moderators for pinning this post - I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January,here's a chronology of eventsfrom pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly. Valentines Day 14/02 edit: Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!! I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on. I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD' Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day! ______________________________________________ It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread. I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.
Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!
Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET) Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock! ______________________________________________
First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:
Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
Share this post to everyone you know - link this thread in WSB threads as comments so that we can educate the ignorant. We can link it in a way such as this: " Here’s a link to the motherload of DD for our favorite stonk " Empower others with knowledge
Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
Let me know how I can better organize this thread.
and finally, don't forget to REPORT SHILLS. I would love to become a moderator and be able to investigate and ban shills myself. I applied but I don't think it will happen for now.
______________________________________________ Backdated posts added later in edits:
11-02 03:00
Added the Chronology of events from pre-squeeze to 4th February.
Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.
The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.
A Comprehensive Compilation of All Due Diligence on $GME
First edit: Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. Thank you moderators for pinning this post - I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January,here's a chronology of eventsfrom pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly. Valentines Day 14/02 edit: Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!! I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on. I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD' Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day! ______________________________________________ It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread. I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.
Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!
Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET) Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock! ______________________________________________
First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:
Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
Share this post to everyone you know - link this thread in WSB threads as comments so that we can educate the ignorant. We can link it in a way such as this: " Here’s a link to the motherload of DD for our favorite stonk " Empower others with knowledge
Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
Let me know how I can better organize this thread.
and finally, don't forget to REPORT SHILLS. I would love to become a moderator and be able to investigate and ban shills myself. I applied but I don't think it will happen for now.
______________________________________________ Backdated posts added later in edits:
11-02 03:00
Added the Chronology of events from pre-squeeze to 4th February.
Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.
The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.
Preface: Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye... Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock. Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch. Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC? Intro: Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years. It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine. Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade. By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.
The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...
Electrification story and leadership: Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:
They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:
Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.
Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:
Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses. And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.
Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years" This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).
We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive. Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford. When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter. Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year. As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow. The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.
Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME? Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline: Bronco:
Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.
Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG) Further potential tailwinds:
The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.
There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.
English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point. Multiples Expansion: Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute): $Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN) GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA. Revenue Multiple: TSLA = 29X F = 0.3X EBITDA Multiple: TSLA = 202X F = 4.4X Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:
Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.
This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market. Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news... TA, Options: Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him). Larger view. As you can see, the trendline has broken out. Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):
Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory. This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory. On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since. On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.
Exhibit C 250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77 These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days Top OI changes: +19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48% +12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52% Top OI positions: 170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25% 112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41% The percentages are bid mid ask. Someone is bullish on Ford. For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick. Options gamma is interesting to note as well. Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something? Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see. The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous. For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary. This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational. But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends. The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:
Profitable company that has solid cash flow
Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.
Hmm... Conclusion: Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet. Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA. As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long. I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings. And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time. Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects. PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market. -JA
Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Predictions | Buy or Sell AAPL? Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Target & Analysis
Should you buy Apple stock or has the company run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Apple in the next years? Read until the end as I reveal my price target for Apple and also what I think will happen in the next couple of days, weeks & months! ~ Warning! Very Very Long Post~ Hello everyone! So, let’s go over some of the latest news on Apple before moving on to some fundamental and technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years. So, let’s start with the news that Apple will cut the App Store commission in half for small app developers starting in the next days, this will affect developers who earn less than $1M annually from the App Store Sales. This is likely to lead to a small decline in commission revenues for Apple as around 98% of the app developers will qualify for this tax reduction from 30% to 15%, but all these small developers only contribute to about 5% of the estimated $50B in annual revenues from the App Store, so that would be only a $1.25B loss for the company, that is less than half a % of the company’s total net sales in the last fiscal year. Also, these changes may lead to a potential long-term revenue boost, as it is likely this will lead to an increasing creation of apps which will generate more commissions in return. Alongside this we also saw the company releasing the new MacBook’s with their first in-house chip, which promises faster video and imaging processing times, with both CPU and GPU performance up to 2 times faster than the latest PC laptop chip using just a fraction of the power consumption, with both of the macbooks promising big improvements in battery life. Apple is also expected to roll out even more in-house chips in future products, as they have started the 2-year breakup with Intel chips. We also saw Morgan Stanley upgrading their base case to $191 at the end of November, as they have cited record lead times, supply chain forecasts and carriers demand as they expect that the company will sell around 270M iPhone in fiscal year 2021, that’s 50M more than the consensus and almost 30M more than the previous estimate of Morgan Stanley, with an average selling price of 842$, 9% more than the base case, as people tend to chose the more expensive and high tech versions of the lineup in this new 5G cycle. The 5G super-cycle, which I believe is on the way, and will continue in the next years, as 5G become more available worldwide, could still be the biggest thing coming right away for the company with 5G smartphones expected to surpass 4G sales by 2024, with the average sale price of the 5G phones also coming down, helping them become more popular. This will also be helped by the recent entry to the Indian market, as India will probably become the world biggest country in the next decade, this could be a huge opportunity for Apple to start and take away market-share from their competitors like Samsung and Xiaomi which have the biggest market shares right now. They also released an update iPad Pro and an all-new iPad Air in September which will also boost sales in this work-from-home environment that will keep the demand very high for this kind of products, just like the Macs. Alongside the increasing demand from the Wearables, Home & Accessories that include Air Pods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and many more products. But the biggest reasons I believe Apple is poised for continued growth, is primarily due to its services business, as they start to offer more and more services like the Apple ONE BUNDLE, which include up to 6 services from (Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, the new Apple Fitness+ and the iCloud service) for a pretty reasonable price in my opinion starting from 15$ up to 30$/month, this could be a great option for families and even individuals who use their services a lot. The latest services, Fitness+ just launched in the past days, and is a direct competitor to the likes of Peloton, as the service is available on the iPhone, iPad or even Apple TV. This also makes consumers buy the Apple Watch which syncs to the other devices to show you different information. The Fitness+ app just on its own is 8$/month or 80$/year which is less expensive than Peloton subscription which charges 13$ or even traditional gyms like Planet Fitness at 10$/month. I think this will be the fastest growing sector for the company, as this aligns with the new macro trends, as the world is moving more and more to a digital approach to almost everything as consumer preferences, with more & more younger people reaching the point in life when they use these services start to align to this increasing digital approach. We also shouldn’t forget the Apple Card & Apple Pay service among many others which also seem to gain from the move to digital & contactless payments, as this has been accelerated due to the current situation in the past year. And one last piece of news, and the most recent one, is that Apple may have fast-tracked the Titan project. The Titan project is targeting a 2024 or 2025 push to develop an electric vehicle with advanced battery technologies, that will deliver significant increases in range at much lower costs than the current technologies while also offering self-driving capabilities. It’s reported they will not use the same technology as Tesla Full-Self-Driving feature, but will use LIDAR sensors, similar to those that we can find in the latest iPhone 12 PRO. I think Apple can go 2 ways with this project, they can either use the huge amount of cash the company has to buy another car-maker like Ford, GM or any other car manufacturer expect Tesla and Toyota which do have a big market cap, so that they can fast-track the potential manufacturing of cars, or they can enter into a partnership with big companies like Tesla, Volkswagen or any other car marker to either produce cars or license their technology to this other car-makers which would ultimately and probably have higher margin-returns than the effective manufacturing of cars. Apple’s current overall gross margins stand at 38% vs the 15% average of the world top 10 automakers by market cap, which is significantly lower. But this Apple Car thing is so far out, and there are so many unknowns, I will not try to predict anything related to this until there is more clarity on the subject. And last, before moving on to some predictions, here are some of the highlights that we heard from the latest investors conference meeting, as the CEO, Tim Cook expressed optimism ahead with the launch of many new products and services, especially the Home Pod Mini and the new 5G iPhones, as these new iPhones include new LIDAR scanners that greatly improve the camera capabilities, as the iPhone as seen very positive reviews. We also saw the Senior VP and CFO, Luca Maestri give us great outlook for the company as they expect the installed devices base to continue to growth despite already being at an all-time high as they have over 585M paid subscriptions on their platforms and expect this to surpass 600M by the end of 2020. I also researched and found what products we can see in the near future, with the first half of 2021 bringing new iMacs, the AirPods3 and the iPad Pro, while in the FALL event we will probably get the new iPhone 13 alongside the iPhone SE PLUS and the Watch Series 7 with more products coming later in 2021 or that don’t have an estimated release date like the Air Pods Pro, the Air Tags and the iPad Mini 6. So, before even starting, you should know that I am bull on Apple but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below. I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research. This are my 2025 projections for Apple, let’s take a closer look at them, each on their own. So, in term of revenues, Apple has 5 big sources of income, which saw an overall increase of 6% despite lagging sales in the iPhone. The biggest revenue is by far the iPhone right now with over $137B in revenue in the fiscal year ending in September. I expect to see the iPhone sales increasing in the next years, especially in 2021, with the new 5G iPhone creating a super-cycle for the company, as most iPhone users, including myself here, as I will upgrade from my iPhone X, will switch to this new product. The iPhone sales have decreased in the last couple of years by 14% and 3% as a result of the product not having big improvements, as well as iPhone usually starting to last longer than previous models, so I expect to see a 12% increase in sales next year and a gradual decrease in the growth of sales as more people upgrade, ending with just a 5% growth in iPhone sales in 2025. The next revenues stream is from the Mac, which has seen an increase in the past 2years, with revenues topping $28B this year after the huge demand from the work from home consumers. I expect this trend to continue as they plan to continue to launch better products and I can see the company having a similar growth next year before starting to decline slightly until 2025, also ending with a 5% growth. The iPad is currently the smallest revenue stream for Apple but has also seen an increase in demand in the past 2 years with a 13% average increase in revenues. I also expect the iPad to continue to grow in the next couple of years, especially with the learn-from-home environment for kids, and even after this period ends, the transformation for learning will implicate more digital usage. I expect the iPad to see some similar growth to the Macs, especially with the latest generation also bringing a new iPad air to the market. The 4th revenue stream and the fastest growing in the past 2 years, with an average growth of 33% are the wearables, home & accessories revenues. This have topped $30B this year, as Apple has also just launched the Apple Watch series 6 and also feature other great products like Apple TV, the Air Pods the Home Pod and the Home Pod mini alongside other third-party accessories. I gave this revenue stream a growth of 20% starting next year with a gradual decrease to around 8% by 2025, as I believe this will become more & more popular as they start to offer more vertical integration. And last, but by no means least, the revenue stream that I expect to grow the most and the fastest is the revenue from the services that Apple offers. This includes revenues from Apple Care, Advertising, Cloud Services, Payment Services like Apple Card & Apple Pay and of course the digital content which includes fees from the App Store alongside subscription-based income including the new Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ alongside the already know Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+ and hopefully I don’t forget any others. So, I expect this to become the clear 2nd biggest revenue stream for Apple by 2025, as I expect this to grow more than 20% next year, mainly due to the Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ followed up by a slightly decreasing growth, ending with a 10% increase in revenues in 2025. I think this are fairly conservative base case scenarios for the revenues, as I expect them to continue to increase the other revenue streams and not have such a large percentage of the revenues coming from the iPhone sales as you can see in this chart. In terms of expenses, I pretty much kept the same margins as in previous years, with a 68% expense ratio on product sales [ iPhone / iPad / Mac / WHA ] and 35% expense ratio on SERVICES, as this are way more lucrative. In the past 3 years, the products gross margin was 32.7%, so I actually imply bigger expenses for the manufacturing and sales of products, as this is mostly impacted by the company’s supplier’s ability to make up for and demand, while for the services revenue, the gross margins for the last 3 years has been 63.5% on average, but I expect this to be more in-line with the 66% margin in this past year. So, if services manage to grow to about half the revenues from the iPhone, this will effectively double the gross revenues, as every buck gained in the service revenues account for 2$ in the product sales. So, I expect the total revenues for Apple to increase from $274B in 2020 to over $440B by 2025, increasing by approximately 10%/year, while I will keep the expense ratio pretty much in-line and have them increasing by 11%/year, this would bring the total gross income for Apple to $177B, increasing mainly due to the services revenues as I said earlier. This growth is just above the 4year average, and below the 2018 levels, which we might see again with this 5G super-cycle and explosive growth in the services revenue. I also think the company will continue to invest in both Capital Expenditure and Operating expenses. I think the operating expenses will remain pretty much in line with the previous years, as this number has increased by 1% annually both in R&D and SG&A. So, I will keep the exact percentages from previous years, as I expect the revenue to increase, thus I don’t see a big increase percentage wise. This would account for over $60B in operating expenses by 2025 and over $11B in Capital Expenditures by 2025, as I expect this to increase, mainly due to the possible EV developments or investments in self-driving capabilities alongside other manufacturing capabilities. You can see that the Capex spending has been decreasing in the past years with just over $8.8B in payments for business acquisitions and the other traditional Capex spending. Some people may use the cash generated by investing activities as Capex, but that is more unreliable. I also can see the Capex going back up, so I wanted to be safe and implied a 10% growth. This money would account for over $73B in expenses and would bring the profit for the company to almost $104B before interest and taxes. Moving on, let’s see what interest income and expenses the company has had in the past few years. We can see a decrease in interest expense in the past few years as the company has been paying off debt, but they have also been generating less money in this department, with an overall decrease in this department of more than 50% in the past year, way less than the amount from 2018. So, for safety reasons, I used a 10% decline in both income and expenses related to interest, while increasing the other losses by 10%/year. This would bring the company pre-tax income to just over $104B in 2025. Let’s move on to taxes. I know the Federal income tax rate is 21% for the company, but the actual effective tax rate for the company was lower than 15% in the past year, mainly due to lower tax-rates on foreign earnings alongside tax-benefits and tax-settlements. The average effective tax rate has been just over 16% in the past 3 years, but with more and more of the revenues coming from outside the US, I think it’s safe to say that the company will have around a 15% effective tax rate by 2025, this obviously if nothing major changes in tax policy around the world. So, Apple would have $88.6B in income after tax by 2025 and with the current outstanding shares standing at just under 17B, so I don’t even account for the company probably continuing to do share buybacks, this would mean a $5.22 future earnings/share. And with today’s price for Apple just around 136$, that would mean to company is trading at just over 26 times forward price to earnings. I don’t think Apple will ever trade at a discount again, with the current PE standing at over 40, I believe this will eventually go down, probably to around 35, despite the increase in services revenue, which is highly valued by investors. I think we can see Apple trade somewhere near 35 times P/E in 2025, especially if something big happens with the EV project, this could be even higher, just look at Tesla which trades at insane P/E. Of course, we also have to take into consideration the dividends that will be received from owning the stock, as Apple has started to pay dividends almost a decade ago and has 9 years of dividend growth, with a 10% annual rate of growth in the past 5 years. Here is the dividend growth history for the company, as I also went conservative on this estimate and implied a 7% growth for the next 2 years, 6% for 2023 and 2024 and just 5% in 2025. So here are my 3 price targets for the company, including dividends but not reinvested. My bear case scenario is that Apple will trade at almost 165$ which implies a return of over 21% by 2025, while my base case scenario would see Apple trading at 195$ with a return of capital of 43%. I will also make the bull case for Apple trading at 225$ by 2025 with dividends included, which would imply just over 65% in gains by then. I think this is possible as Apple has also continued to buy back shares of the company on a constant basis, as they continue to an impressive campaign with over $72B worth of common stock repurchased in 2020. They continue to buy back shares at a very fast pace, having repurchased over 1.3B shares in 2019 and 2018, while also issuing less stock every year. So here is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for Apple by 2025 and the breakdown of everything i estimated [ 1 / 2 ] , if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion. Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Apple has had in the last 5years. The company has increased in value by more 400% in just the past 5years and is over 100.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against Apple? The company also has pristine financials, with more than $65B in total assets compared to total liabilities, and more than $38B in cash and cash equivalents. So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Apple? Let’s look at this CHART, so starting with the stock split, Apple saw a correction within the September stock market pullback, in a buy the news & sell the event, after a huge runup post-announcement of the stock split. The stock entered a consolidation period, and didn’t have any big catalysts, especially with new iPhone lineup not being included in the Q4 results due to the late launch. The stock found some levels of resistance near the $120 levels that it struggled to get past but acted also as support after breaking them just before the recent news of the possible EV developments or self-driving-features to be licensed to other car manufacturers. After that news the stock spiked and has now reached the previous highs made before the stock split and is facing some resistance, if the stock pushes over $140 I think we can officially say that it broke the resistance at those levels and is not just a fake-out. But I think it’s likely that the stock will consolidate between 122 and 135$ in the next weeks until the next iPhone sales and quarterly results are released, as the stock has entered overbought territory again with an RSI over 70, the first time since the stock split. So, what would I do? Well, I own Apple stock, and I really believe this company will remain the biggest or one of the biggest in the future, so I would really add on any weakness that the stock shows before the next quarter earnings are released, as typically Q1 earnings are the best for the company due to increased holiday sales combined with the launch of new products. I think any entry below 130$ would be really nice to start and build a position or increase it if you already own the stock. As I believe Apple is one of the most stable stocks out there with large institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock and Berkshire owning over 900M shares each. Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time!
This is coming from Zippo who has been known to be a credible leaker. They have leaked Mario 3D All Stars and Bowser’s Fury before official announcement. Nintendo has dealt with Zippo before, further proving credibility. I would attach a link, but for some reason it isn’t showing up on posts and comments so I’ll copy pasta it in this post. Take these leaks with a grain of salt btw: SONIC MANAGEMENT: Nearly management of the franchise is being done at "Sonic Pillar" in Irvine, California now. They're calling the shots, when it comes to games, merch, social media, etc. SOJ is well aware of how much more popular the franchise is in the west, so they've been entrusted with it's care. That said, here's some stuff that needs to be clarified: They are NOT a game development studio. Producers, artists and all of that are there to ensure development on the games go smoothly. Development is still being done in Japan at the same studios as always. Iizuka and Hoshino are still the stewards of the franchise, but they're doing so in the US now. Those 3 changes alone are pretty huge, but I would expect more to come out. There's new hands in the Sonic pie, and this is being described internally as a "new era" for the boy in blue. Modern Sonic will be the focus of this anniversary. That detail is going to be extremely disappointing to numerous people, which is understandable, but here's why: Classic Sonic and his series of games are seen as "old hat" at SEGA. From what I understand, Classic coming back is and was never going to be a permanent thing. Yes, I know what you're thinking, Mania was a huge success critically, and that team is immensely talented, but the thing is, SEGA doesn't want the franchise being "defined" by a 2D sprite based game that was done by fan/indie developers. They want the games they make themselves to be the "shining beacon" of the franchise, for lack of a better word. One other big point is frankly, Classic Sonic has more than been taken care of, at this point, by fans. There are literally hundreds of ongoing fan games being made, such as Sonic Mania Megamix, Sonic Galactic, Sonic Roboblast 2, Sonic 2 HD, etc. SEGA has come out and publically supported all of these fan works, they have no need for a Mania sequel, because fans are already doing those, and then some, from their perspective. Another way to think about this is Dragon Ball. For any person not in the know, the classic Dragon Ball era of 1984-1989 has a much different art style and tone from the rest of the franchise. Akira Toriyama and his editors decided to age up the characters, increase the dramatic tone and action scenes, and completely change the art direction of the series, and for the most part, it's been that way for over 30 years. Sonic Adventure has been commonly compared to Dragon Ball Z for that very reason. Z superceded any need for Dragon Ball, and SEGA sees Sonic the same way. Modern has much more potential in terms of merch, spinoffs, television, comics, you name it. It's what the franchise has had it's core identity in since 1998, and that's not changing, Prime sounds like it'll be continuing this sentiment. Also, the modern cast is much bigger, is ever-growing, plenty of potential for spinoffs, has a lot of potential depth in the characters (even if the games haven't done a great job showing that), and while this may not be important for some, the much larger female cast is super important for many in the fanbase. Classic will still be around in merchandise and supplementary material, of course, so don't ever expect him to go away completely. I'd love to be wrong about this one, being perfectly honest, but all signs are pointing to this being the case. I have heard from that this point on, that they're going back to 2D and 3D gameplay being the sole dimensions in their respective games, which is an extremely good thing. The past 15 or so years has had Sonic Team's games all be a hybrid of the two, but in that execution, they have realized neither dimension has been able to be used to it's full potential, so instead of trying to make people happy with one title that pleases no one, they're making two. NEW SONIC COLLECTION: I don't know exactly what's in it, but will be a celebration of 30 years of the blue blur, with games that haven't been in circulation in many years. Sonic Advance, Pocket Adventure and Sonic R all seem like likely inclusions here. Sonic Team/M2 are likely making this in tandem. If I were a betting man, I'd say this one will release in June. This will NOT include the remakes of Sonic 1&2, by the way. I'd expect the M2 versions to be the ones included, instead. Sonic 3 will also NOT be included NEW SONIC & MARIO OLYMPICS: in development, but considering how the pandemic has fucked everything Olympics related, the IOC internally scrambling over a potential cancellation of the Summer Games, and the extremely controversial nature of China holding next year's Winter Games, there's a very good chance that this one may be cancelled altogether. I also strongly believe SEGA and Nintendo want no part in this controversy. It'll all hinge on how this pandemic and the situation with China shakes out in the next few months. I'm 50/50 on this one happening, at the moment. NEW 2D SONIC: This is the one I've heard the least about. Iizuka alluded to this one last year, but I would bet money that this is coming rather soon, as well. It's a game with the modern cast, so I think a return to Sonic Advance/Rush formula is what we're getting here. Summer-Fall is pretty much certain. Who's developing it? I'm not sure, to be perfectly honest, but I have a hunch that Dimps is developing this title, as their schedule is strangely empty at the moment. I know they're a controversial developer among many Sonic fans, but I would blame their weaker titles on SEGA's lack of oversight rather than Dimps, themselves. They're an extremely talented and diverse developer in the variety of games they make, so i'm confident in that they can make a great Sonic game again, if it is them developing. NEW 3D SONIC: Okay, so this is the big one. This is a make or break title for a lot of people, and it's easy to understand why. I'll do the best I can to elaborate on what I've heard. What I know: -It is NOT a boost game. SEGA has realized that they've done all they can with that formula, so this is allegedly a return to more of an Adventure/traditional platformer, which is seen as having much more long term potential. -Full 3D, no hybrid nonsense here. -Features return of the spin dash in 3D and character upgrades. -There are more playable characters than just Sonic, but I wasn't given specifics as to who those were. Tails/Knuckles/Shadow all seem like valid possibilities. It'll be the first game conceptualized by the "Sonic Pillar" in the US. -SEGA CS2 R&D has had a number of new hires, post Forces, so a number of the devs involved are brand new to the series. "Sonic Team" is literally nothing more than just a brand name now. No idea if it'll be in the marketing or not. -The game will be cross-gen, should be on every console under the sun, and a Holiday 2021 release is still on track, last I heard. However, given the very obvious circumstances going on around the world, there is still a chance it may slip into 2022. They're willing to give this game all the time it needs. -This game is a NOT a tie-in to the movies at all. Paramount is doing their own thing with Sonic. CAMEOS: Sonic will apparently appear as a guest in a bunch of games coming this year, Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 being the first game of this year's big push. I don't know what the other games are, but I have a prediction that one of them will be a guest appearance in SEGA's new Super Monkey Ball game, that series will celebrate it's 20th anniversary this year, so expect a pretty big push for that one, as well. REVEAL PERIOD: One last tidbit I have, is that they are planning some sort of game reveal as we speak, it should be a digital presentation, similar to what was planned last year. Although, given the tenuous state of things, a press release drop is also a possibility. My guess is that this will air from between the next few weeks and the end of March, and should go over at least a good bit of what I laid out today. We seem due for a reveal here pretty soon, so i'm of the belief that we may be mere days away from something substantial.
Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Predictions | Buy or Sell AAPL? Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Target & Analysis
Should you buy Apple stock or has the company run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Apple in the next years? Read until the end as I reveal my price target for Apple and also what I think will happen in the next couple of days, weeks & months! ~ Warning! Very Very Long Post~ Hello everyone! So, let’s go over some of the latest news on Apple before moving on to some fundamental and technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years. [Disclosure: I made this DD last month, but I wasn't part of this Subreddit until the last few days] So, let’s start with the news that Apple will cut the App Store commission in half for small app developers starting in the next days, this will affect developers who earn less than $1M annually from the App Store Sales. This is likely to lead to a small decline in commission revenues for Apple as around 98% of the app developers will qualify for this tax reduction from 30% to 15%, but all these small developers only contribute to about 5% of the estimated $50B in annual revenues from the App Store, so that would be only a $1.25B loss for the company, that is less than half a % of the company’s total net sales in the last fiscal year. Also, these changes may lead to a potential long-term revenue boost, as it is likely this will lead to an increasing creation of apps which will generate more commissions in return. Alongside this we also saw the company releasing the new MacBook’s with their first in-house chip, which promises faster video and imaging processing times, with both CPU and GPU performance up to 2 times faster than the latest PC laptop chip using just a fraction of the power consumption, with both of the macbooks promising big improvements in battery life. Apple is also expected to roll out even more in-house chips in future products, as they have started the 2-year breakup with Intel chips. We also saw Morgan Stanley upgrading their base case to $191 at the end of November, as they have cited record lead times, supply chain forecasts and carriers demand as they expect that the company will sell around 270M iPhone in fiscal year 2021, that’s 50M more than the consensus and almost 30M more than the previous estimate of Morgan Stanley, with an average selling price of 842$, 9% more than the base case, as people tend to chose the more expensive and high tech versions of the lineup in this new 5G cycle. The 5G super-cycle, which I believe is on the way, and will continue in the next years, as 5G become more available worldwide, could still be the biggest thing coming right away for the company with 5G smartphones expected to surpass 4G sales by 2024, with the average sale price of the 5G phones also coming down, helping them become more popular. This will also be helped by the recent entry to the Indian market, as India will probably become the world biggest country in the next decade, this could be a huge opportunity for Apple to start and take away market-share from their competitors like Samsung and Xiaomi which have the biggest market shares right now. They also released an update iPad Pro and an all-new iPad Air in September which will also boost sales in this work-from-home environment that will keep the demand very high for this kind of products, just like the Macs. Alongside the increasing demand from the Wearables, Home & Accessories that include Air Pods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and many more products. But the biggest reasons I believe Apple is poised for continued growth, is primarily due to its services business, as they start to offer more and more services like the Apple ONE BUNDLE, which include up to 6 services from (Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, the new Apple Fitness+ and the iCloud service) for a pretty reasonable price in my opinion starting from 15$ up to 30$/month, this could be a great option for families and even individuals who use their services a lot. The latest services, Fitness+ just launched in the past days, and is a direct competitor to the likes of Peloton, as the service is available on the iPhone, iPad or even Apple TV. This also makes consumers buy the Apple Watch which syncs to the other devices to show you different information. The Fitness+ app just on its own is 8$/month or 80$/year which is less expensive than Peloton subscription which charges 13$ or even traditional gyms like Planet Fitness at 10$/month. I think this will be the fastest growing sector for the company, as this aligns with the new macro trends, as the world is moving more and more to a digital approach to almost everything as consumer preferences, with more & more younger people reaching the point in life when they use these services start to align to this increasing digital approach. We also shouldn’t forget the Apple Card & Apple Pay service among many others which also seem to gain from the move to digital & contactless payments, as this has been accelerated due to the current situation in the past year. And one last piece of news, and the most recent one, is that Apple may have fast-tracked the Titan project. The Titan project is targeting a 2024 or 2025 push to develop an electric vehicle with advanced battery technologies, that will deliver significant increases in range at much lower costs than the current technologies while also offering self-driving capabilities. It’s reported they will not use the same technology as Tesla Full-Self-Driving feature, but will use LIDAR sensors, similar to those that we can find in the latest iPhone 12 PRO. I think Apple can go 2 ways with this project, they can either use the huge amount of cash the company has to buy another car-maker like Ford, GM or any other car manufacturer expect Tesla and Toyota which do have a big market cap, so that they can fast-track the potential manufacturing of cars, or they can enter into a partnership with big companies like Tesla, Volkswagen or any other car marker to either produce cars or license their technology to this other car-makers which would ultimately and probably have higher margin-returns than the effective manufacturing of cars. Apple’s current overall gross margins stand at 38% vs the 15% average of the world top 10 automakers by market cap, which is significantly lower. But this Apple Car thing is so far out, and there are so many unknowns, I will not try to predict anything related to this until there is more clarity on the subject. And last, before moving on to some predictions, here are some of the highlights that we heard from the latest investors conference meeting, as the CEO, Tim Cook expressed optimism ahead with the launch of many new products and services, especially the Home Pod Mini and the new 5G iPhones, as these new iPhones include new LIDAR scanners that greatly improve the camera capabilities, as the iPhone as seen very positive reviews. We also saw the Senior VP and CFO, Luca Maestri give us great outlook for the company as they expect the installed devices base to continue to growth despite already being at an all-time high as they have over 585M paid subscriptions on their platforms and expect this to surpass 600M by the end of 2020. I also researched and found what products we can see in the near future, with the first half of 2021 bringing new iMacs, the AirPods3 and the iPad Pro, while in the FALL event we will probably get the new iPhone 13 alongside the iPhone SE PLUS and the Watch Series 7 with more products coming later in 2021 or that don’t have an estimated release date like the Air Pods Pro, the Air Tags and the iPad Mini 6. So, before even starting, you should know that I am bull on Apple but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below. I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research. This are my 2025 projections for Apple, let’s take a closer look at them, each on their own. So, in term of revenues, Apple has 5 big sources of income, which saw an overall increase of 6% despite lagging sales in the iPhone. The biggest revenue is by far the iPhone right now with over $137B in revenue in the fiscal year ending in September. I expect to see the iPhone sales increasing in the next years, especially in 2021, with the new 5G iPhone creating a super-cycle for the company, as most iPhone users, including myself here, as I will upgrade from my iPhone X, will switch to this new product. The iPhone sales have decreased in the last couple of years by 14% and 3% as a result of the product not having big improvements, as well as iPhone usually starting to last longer than previous models, so I expect to see a 12% increase in sales next year and a gradual decrease in the growth of sales as more people upgrade, ending with just a 5% growth in iPhone sales in 2025. The next revenues stream is from the Mac, which has seen an increase in the past 2years, with revenues topping $28B this year after the huge demand from the work from home consumers. I expect this trend to continue as they plan to continue to launch better products and I can see the company having a similar growth next year before starting to decline slightly until 2025, also ending with a 5% growth. The iPad is currently the smallest revenue stream for Apple but has also seen an increase in demand in the past 2 years with a 13% average increase in revenues. I also expect the iPad to continue to grow in the next couple of years, especially with the learn-from-home environment for kids, and even after this period ends, the transformation for learning will implicate more digital usage. I expect the iPad to see some similar growth to the Macs, especially with the latest generation also bringing a new iPad air to the market. The 4th revenue stream and the fastest growing in the past 2 years, with an average growth of 33% are the wearables, home & accessories revenues. This have topped $30B this year, as Apple has also just launched the Apple Watch series 6 and also feature other great products like Apple TV, the Air Pods the Home Pod and the Home Pod mini alongside other third-party accessories. I gave this revenue stream a growth of 20% starting next year with a gradual decrease to around 8% by 2025, as I believe this will become more & more popular as they start to offer more vertical integration. And last, but by no means least, the revenue stream that I expect to grow the most and the fastest is the revenue from the services that Apple offers. This includes revenues from Apple Care, Advertising, Cloud Services, Payment Services like Apple Card & Apple Pay and of course the digital content which includes fees from the App Store alongside subscription-based income including the new Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ alongside the already know Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+ and hopefully I don’t forget any others. So, I expect this to become the clear 2nd biggest revenue stream for Apple by 2025, as I expect this to grow more than 20% next year, mainly due to the Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ followed up by a slightly decreasing growth, ending with a 10% increase in revenues in 2025. I think this are fairly conservative base case scenarios for the revenues, as I expect them to continue to increase the other revenue streams and not have such a large percentage of the revenues coming from the iPhone sales as you can see in this chart. In terms of expenses, I pretty much kept the same margins as in previous years, with a 68% expense ratio on product sales [ iPhone / iPad / Mac / WHA ] and 35% expense ratio on SERVICES, as this are way more lucrative. In the past 3 years, the products gross margin was 32.7%, so I actually imply bigger expenses for the manufacturing and sales of products, as this is mostly impacted by the company’s supplier’s ability to make up for and demand, while for the services revenue, the gross margins for the last 3 years has been 63.5% on average, but I expect this to be more in-line with the 66% margin in this past year. So, if services manage to grow to about half the revenues from the iPhone, this will effectively double the gross revenues, as every buck gained in the service revenues account for 2$ in the product sales. So, I expect the total revenues for Apple to increase from $274B in 2020 to over $440B by 2025, increasing by approximately 10%/year, while I will keep the expense ratio pretty much in-line and have them increasing by 11%/year, this would bring the total gross income for Apple to $177B, increasing mainly due to the services revenues as I said earlier. This growth is just above the 4year average, and below the 2018 levels, which we might see again with this 5G super-cycle and explosive growth in the services revenue. I also think the company will continue to invest in both Capital Expenditure and Operating expenses. I think the operating expenses will remain pretty much in line with the previous years, as this number has increased by 1% annually both in R&D and SG&A. So, I will keep the exact percentages from previous years, as I expect the revenue to increase, thus I don’t see a big increase percentage wise. This would account for over $60B in operating expenses by 2025 and over $11B in Capital Expenditures by 2025, as I expect this to increase, mainly due to the possible EV developments or investments in self-driving capabilities alongside other manufacturing capabilities. You can see that the Capex spending has been decreasing in the past years with just over $8.8B in payments for business acquisitions and the other traditional Capex spending. Some people may use the cash generated by investing activities as Capex, but that is more unreliable. I also can see the Capex going back up, so I wanted to be safe and implied a 10% growth. This money would account for over $73B in expenses and would bring the profit for the company to almost $104B before interest and taxes. Moving on, let’s see what interest income and expenses the company has had in the past few years. We can see a decrease in interest expense in the past few years as the company has been paying off debt, but they have also been generating less money in this department, with an overall decrease in this department of more than 50% in the past year, way less than the amount from 2018. So, for safety reasons, I used a 10% decline in both income and expenses related to interest, while increasing the other losses by 10%/year. This would bring the company pre-tax income to just over $104B in 2025. Let’s move on to taxes. I know the Federal income tax rate is 21% for the company, but the actual effective tax rate for the company was lower than 15% in the past year, mainly due to lower tax-rates on foreign earnings alongside tax-benefits and tax-settlements. The average effective tax rate has been just over 16% in the past 3 years, but with more and more of the revenues coming from outside the US, I think it’s safe to say that the company will have around a 15% effective tax rate by 2025, this obviously if nothing major changes in tax policy around the world. So, Apple would have $88.6B in income after tax by 2025 and with the current outstanding shares standing at just under 17B, so I don’t even account for the company probably continuing to do share buybacks, this would mean a $5.22 future earnings/share. And with today’s price for Apple just around 136$, that would mean to company is trading at just over 26 times forward price to earnings. I don’t think Apple will ever trade at a discount again, with the current PE standing at over 40, I believe this will eventually go down, probably to around 35, despite the increase in services revenue, which is highly valued by investors. I think we can see Apple trade somewhere near 35 times P/E in 2025, especially if something big happens with the EV project, this could be even higher, just look at Tesla which trades at insane P/E. Of course, we also have to take into consideration the dividends that will be received from owning the stock, as Apple has started to pay dividends almost a decade ago and has 9 years of dividend growth, with a 10% annual rate of growth in the past 5 years. Here is the dividend growth history for the company, as I also went conservative on this estimate and implied a 7% growth for the next 2 years, 6% for 2023 and 2024 and just 5% in 2025. So here are my 3 price targets for the company, including dividends but not reinvested. My bear case scenario is that Apple will trade at almost 165$ which implies a return of over 21% by 2025, while my base case scenario would see Apple trading at 195$ with a return of capital of 43%. I will also make the bull case for Apple trading at 225$ by 2025 with dividends included, which would imply just over 65% in gains by then. I think this is possible as Apple has also continued to buy back shares of the company on a constant basis, as they continue to an impressive campaign with over $72B worth of common stock repurchased in 2020. They continue to buy back shares at a very fast pace, having repurchased over 1.3B shares in 2019 and 2018, while also issuing less stock every year. So here is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for Apple by 2025 and the breakdown of everything i estimated [ 1 / 2 ] , if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion. Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Apple has had in the last 5years. The company has increased in value by more 400% in just the past 5years and is over 100.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against Apple? The company also has pristine financials, with more than $65B in total assets compared to total liabilities, and more than $38B in cash and cash equivalents. So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Apple? Let’s look at this CHART, so starting with the stock split, Apple saw a correction within the September stock market pullback, in a buy the news & sell the event, after a huge runup post-announcement of the stock split. The stock entered a consolidation period, and didn’t have any big catalysts, especially with new iPhone lineup not being included in the Q4 results due to the late launch. The stock found some levels of resistance near the $120 levels that it struggled to get past but acted also as support after breaking them just before the recent news of the possible EV developments or self-driving-features to be licensed to other car manufacturers. After that news the stock spiked and has now reached the previous highs made before the stock split and is facing some resistance, if the stock pushes over $140 I think we can officially say that it broke the resistance at those levels and is not just a fake-out. But I think it’s likely that the stock will consolidate between 122 and 135$ in the next weeks until the next iPhone sales and quarterly results are released, as the stock has entered overbought territory again with an RSI over 70, the first time since the stock split. So, what would I do? Well, I own Apple stock, and I really believe this company will remain the biggest or one of the biggest in the future, so I would really add on any weakness that the stock shows before the next quarter earnings are released, as typically Q1 earnings are the best for the company due to increased holiday sales combined with the launch of new products. I think any entry below 130$ would be really nice to start and build a position or increase it if you already own the stock. As I believe Apple is one of the most stable stocks out there with large institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock and Berkshire owning over 900M shares each. Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time!
TLDR: Gamma drives market makers / option dealers to buy/sell stock in the same direction as the price action. It's dominating movements in most meme stocks presently. GME likely more dominated by capital inflows this week than short-term gamma (new buyers + short covering vs old sellers), but significant Friday unwind possible at very high price levels (over $115 specifically) Finally got good data on option OI this morning. I think GME may be greatly understated on these charts. https://imgur.com/a/ZsyuYWu I added a new chart today from SpotGamma. Their product is really great, love it a lot. You have to add the put and call lines together to see dealer behaviors. As you go up in price, they are buying more, so it's kind of inverted in buying effects. GME: Gamma dominated recently, and gamma dominated in coming months. Less so today at these prices. Gamma ramp falloff after 115, big danger at 60 - sharp ramp. Less volatile before 110 and after 65 or so. I think spot gamma is slightly understating the total gamma at risk here and think dealers own more. Additionally, GME has substantial expirations on friday which could cause a meltdown in some scenarios. I don't think that is in the interests of dealers though, so maybe it's more gentle and doesn't drop past 60. In an event that the price absolutely collapsed, they'd lose money. But - Really, buying inflows are dominating this as much as gamma is. A lot could happen for bulls or bears here, and the short squeeze is a thing this week and also can have very large imapct, on the order of gamma possibilities or more.I think most price action of this stock to the upside has to be short covering, further retail buying - NOT gamma this week. there’s also a dehedging of Friday expiry that will happen throughout the week and will cause things to move, I’ll calculate. Options 30 and 40% out of the money are adding real delta right now. Wow. EDIT 12:11pm NY Time Tues: GME Unwind Data: At the current price of $89, dealers are holding about 6.5m shares long to hedge friday. As we approach Friday, this number drops to about 4.5m, causing weak selling at this price. Once Friday is over, at this price, those 4.5m shares get rolled or sold, which is some moderate selling. At a price of $110, there's buying of about 1.5m shares, followed by a rolling/selling of 8m shares friday. At a price of $59, dealers-shift hedges at 6m shares sold between now and friday, and then friday unload is neutral. In other words, for the price range we are in, there's very slight dealer selling over time. As price goes down, that accelerates even if the price is flat, and friday starts to be a net buy by dealers on friday towards close under 60. For prices over 110, dealers start to net buy leading into friday, then have a large net sell/roll into close. For insane prices, like $120+, dealers hold 11m shares going into friday, which roll off or are delivered or sold. Therefore, in most cases, Friday unwind is moderate in scope, not large, being half the size of the stack that unwound 2 weeks ago and caused a 10% down day. The entire option stack is loaded however, per the chart. If price is $116+, the unwind is more potent and is similar to 2 weeks ago. PLTR: Heavy gamma influenced, but less than some of the other stocks. More downside than upside with gamma, but an OK ramp up, not great. BBBY: Gamma dominated. More ramp down than up. Danger in that ramp from 30 to 20. Yikes BB: Gamma influenced, but not dominated, OI is smaller relative to float. Healthy ramp up. Edit: After Close Tuesday GME: My analysis is this looks like primarily new money. Gamma should've only been 8 million shares between open and $120, then a mere trickle after that. I'm sure you guys added some options, so call it 10 or 11. That does mean dealers now have perhaps as much as the float in shares, which is an interesting situation. After that, it was pure retail inflows, likely on the order of over a billion dollars. I think some shorts covered, but borrowdesk had no shares last I checked, so it looks like lots of people short. Obviously, no one can predict where this can go, but per my prior comments, we are now in a bubble phase. Bubbles pop when capital inflows flip. Lifting each $10 takes the same amount of capital as the last $10, probably a few hundred million dollars per $10 rise, so % changes get harder. Are we at peak inflows today? No idea. But you can cross gamma off the table for now. Gamma isn't driving this right now at these price levels, inflows are driving this. I don't think short covering is a factor because while some shorts are covering, shares still hard to borrow. My positions: was short GME but option OI not juicy enough, so left position. Will enter put spreads if prices are higher ahead of friday, will enter long if prices very low like under $60. Long BB. Long BBBY. Long PLTR via an indirect vehicle. Betting on WSB continue gamma stuff basically.
2021 Australian Open Men's & Women's Round 4 Writeup 🐢
TENNIS IS GETTIN GOOOOOOOD, and that kinda means more hedging and squinting from me. These are some really high quality affairs with real tour implications for some of the underdogs if they're able to win. Hard to predict, and from a betting standpoint the tournament should probably be almost over for you. Once players have won a couple rounds, oddsmakers are pricing things very well, and since everyone is playing near their peak margins are very thing. Ladies first today. Barty Rogers : Well, I owe Ash Barty an apology of sorts. The lack of aggression that I thought would be her poison against Alexandrova was adjusted well, and while she didn’t go for winners she did keep the ball extremely low over the net for the entire match in a much contrasting style to the loopy forehands that she’d employed against some of her previous opponents. She went almost exclusively crosscourt with her forehand and used the backhand slice to draw Alexandrova into the court and challenge the big hitters footwork. It worked, as Alexandrova got locked into long rallies and, despite bright points, found herself making a ton of simple errors. Her backhand left her, she was unable to convert her forehand down the line despite it being her best shot heading into this match, and her first serve all but disappeared. She was up a break and leading in both sets, but it never looked like she had a chance. When she did attempt to play a slice or an off-speed ball, Barty hit a winner every single time. Rogers is lucky that she had the time to realize she was going to win her match. She struggled with comfort in the rallies early and when she had simple balls to end rallies she made some anxious errors, but there was plenty of time in this. Kontaveit was not sharp in this event and Rogers is playing her best. On the tour, form is most of who wins and Rogers has had a great end to 2020 and a good start to 2021. Where Alexandrova made errors, I think since Rogers plays a more conservative approach she’ll be ok. Barty is still a ridiculously difficult defensive test though, and the same extra balls she made Alexandrova play to earn errors will give Shelby trouble since this is new territory for her as far as the round of play. It’s easy to just pick Barty, but that is what I think I have to do. It was evident early in the match that although Alexandrova had the bigger offense, the amount of work she’d have to do with it would require an amazing performance. I expect Rogers to hang more in rallies, but struggle to find her way out of them. Barty in 2 close sets. Mertens Muchova : Mertens continues to roll, dispatching Bencic in two pretty comfortable sets. Muchova had a really close match with Pliskova despite winning in straights. She was up and down a break in the first set, finding a hold late to close out. In the second Pliskova found a better gear in the rallies and went up 5-0, and then, something happened. It’s hard to say what, but outwardly it was double faults. Muchova simply hits the ball too solid and to too many open spaces for Pliskova to deal with, and as a result Pliskova never felt safe hitting normal rally balls. She went bigger than she had to, and established no rhythm. Muchova then managed to save some break points at 4-5, and from there it just seemed like Pliskova was mentally defeated. Matches between compatriots can often have funky results, and this definitely was one. In previous rounds Muchova’s ability in the rally made her a clear favorite. Ostapenko, Pliskova, Barthel are all offensive talents, and Muchova’s defense and power just made it simple for her to win points and difficult for them to manufacture them without errors. Against Mertens, the equation changes. Mertens is very good at redirecting the ball, and won’t make really any of the errors Muchova’s previous opponents did. Muchova made some errors on her backhand wing in the last round, and struggled to hold serve. I think that will continue here, and Mertens will get one step closer returning serves as the match goes on earning her some break point chances. Mertens in 2. Vekic Brady : Sneaky sneaky. Down and out of this one, Vekic found her best game. Vekic and Kanepi played a really high level offensive contest, with a lot of rallies being played from deep behind the baseline and with both players on the run constantly. Kanepi’s serve was a big weapon for cheap points, but Vekic’s earned her more simple balls to hit. Her power has really dragged her through this draw, and for a former title winner who has struggled to find that form again she becomes a dangerous player at this point in the tournament. Brady had a pretty easy match, but handled it the way you need to when this is the case. Vekic is going to be the sharper player coming in. Playing Pliskova, Kanepi, and Podoroska really involves a lot of big hitting and defending. As a result, there’s a good chance that she is a bit more resilient in rallies than Brady will expect. It’s easy to get frustrated and cough up errors when your opponent is returning the ball with depth when you expect them to float up an easy one. Beating Kanepi means Vekic can win this match as well, even though Brady’s offensive ability on the forehand side and defensive ability at the baseline mean it won’t be easy. Brady is a clear favorite here for the simple reason that Vekic is not “supposed” to be here, but deep in an event it is easy to forget the past and focus on the task on court. I’m really not sure who will be more able to earn errors here, but I suspect Brady will close it out where Kanepi faltered, as she’s been improving all of last year and seems very sharp here despite having not really played a tough test. What scares me, and I’m aware I’m going back and forth, is the simple way Li ended Brady’s run the previous week. I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing Brady, but I think she should win. Brady in 3. Pegula Svitolina : There just are no easy matches at this point, and the way I felt trepidatious about picking a winner in the last match is similar here. Pegula beat Mladenovic from start to finish. She’s really consistent from the baseline right now and continues to serve great. Svitolina had a similarly dominant win against a tough defensive test in Putintseva. Putintseva started early with the moonballs and pushmode and never got out of it. Svitolina hit her backhand clean and in a very measured fashion in this one, working the points patiently. It was a testament to her quality, but more so to her dominance against Putintseva. When you know you’re going to outlast your opponent, playing long rallies almost becomes a joy. You’re thinking while the other person is working. Pegula almost has the offense to beat Svitolina. She almost has the defense too. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, and their recent match in Abu Dhabi was won by Svitolina but in two single break sets so it’s tough to say the upset isn’t possible. Pegula seems better this week than in Abu Dhabi, with many players just kinda getting matches in at that event and not really pressing yet. I think she reverses some portion of the result, and after playing Putintseva Svitolina will take some time to adjust to someone playing actual offense. If Pegula is able to serve well, she may cause an upset, but it would be a monumental win since Svitolina is so fast, so consistent, and just won the matchup. Svitolina in 3. I’m aware even as I write these things that it seems unfair to play both sides. “SHE MIGHT WIN, BUT ALSO SHE MIGHT LOSE!” is not a hot take, but I generally think it’s better to be honest about uncertainty and at this stage in the tournament everyone is playing so well that the margins are extra thin unless you’re Ash Barty who is the golden potato of success and shall never be doubted again long may she reign also did she get taller somehow? Hsieh Voundrousova : Finally, the Hsieh Errani match is over. These two traded 7 straight breaks to open the match, and did not stop there. Hsieh had little to no way to end rallies against Sara’s speed, and Errani’s serve completely left her. After being up 5-2 in the final set, Errani didn’t win another game. It was a bittersweet result after being on the court for so many grinding rallies, but the better player won as far as the tournament goes. Hsieh will be better recovered for this next round against Voundrousova, and will have a better chance ot not simply being run senseless by the talented lefty. Voundrousova placed Cirstea immediately into her own personal jail cell in their match. Cirstea was in control of every rally, but Voundrousova kept the ball within a foot of the baseline on so many offerings. It looked like Cirstea would find her resolve in the second set, but all she found were more forehand errors down the line and more backhands into the net. It is a real phenomenon in tennis that when one players establishes they’re intent on hanging in the rallies forever, the other starts making mistakes. With the edges being so small, it seems that often (sadly) the player trying to play offense ends up losing. Cirstea will be back, but for now, she simply was unwilling to believe that she could tolerate the long rallies and still win the match. Voundrousova is a much better Errani. Hsieh has great defense, and her variety will certainly make her an equal proposition against Voudrousova’s dropshot heavy offense, but I think that Voundrousova’s defending is a cut above Errani and Hsieh’s serve really faltered last round. This could close as Hsieh just beat her in Abu Dhabi, but Voundrousova is playing significantly better here and Hsieh has already been through some emotional wars. Voundrousova in 2. Muguruza Osaka : Yay! Muguruza has been at her best here. Consistent and ultra-focused on defensive play. Diyas had not much chance. Similarly, Jabeur didn’t really have enough offense to hit through Osaka. Plot twist: no one does. Osaka has been winning majors because her mobility and defending on the baseline are something that creates no easy way to win points. She cuts off angles and plays the ball heavy and flat down the middle of the court and honestly it takes multiple shots from there to even produce the opportunity to hit the shot that got you pinned by Osaka’s return in the first place. It’s a difficult cycle, and the best path to beating Osaka right now is something that Muguruza will do, which is slowing things down and making it a shot-for-shot affair, rather than a frenzied trade at the baseline. Muguruza will look to construct points intelligently and to take time between them. The only chance (barring a blowup) that players have to beat Osaka in a major seems to be building pressure. Naomi still is prone to strings of errors when she misses a shot. There’s a general “I’d better go safe I just missed” reflex in most athletes and going safe generally means unintended deceleration on your swing which creates the next error. This is storytime though, and I don’t expect random strings of errors to net Muguruza more than a set. She’s playing her best, but I don’t expect it to beat Osaka’s best. Osaka in 2. Sabalenka Williams : Match of the day! Sabalenka beat Li in such an impressive fashion, and I’m starting to get my hopes up that this is the year she breaks through in a major. She hits the hardest of anyone on tour, and has one of the best serves seen in a long time. The backhand down the line is a beautiful controlled swing, and the best thing about Sabalenka is that her movement doesn’t at all match her height. She covers the court beautifully, and her belief in herself isn’t deluded at all, but rooted more in a desire to compete and win. That’ll get you real far on tour, as her opponent can attest to. Serena is one of the first players on tour to wear a catsuit, and Feliciano Lopez has been spotted in the stands eyeing the attire and stroking his nonexistent beard. Things to come, Catsuit Feli? Possibly. Serena looked her best coming into this event, and then the Potapova match happened. The same defensive struggles that she’d exhibited post-pregnancy were back, and it made me think I may have put too much emphasis on her slight bit of extra weight being tied to her errors. She’s lost the weight, but that first set was rough. On the bright side, when she had to fight at the end of the first set, she really was amazing. When she competes she gets such a singular focus it really is great to watch. The second set was better quality, as it always is when she plays. The question is, how does she neutralize Sabalenka’s offense. Serena can serve aces. She can put balls away when she has control, and she can attack second serves and break. Can she defend though? Ann Li is quick. Ann Li redirects the ball well, and attacks second serves. Ann Li is not Serena, but she was soundly beaten for two sets. In sport sometimes (all the time) I get fooled. Sometimes Nadal looks sloppy and then comes out and rolls Novak in the French. Sometimes Federer goes 5 in the first round with the world #140 and then doesn’t drop a set the rest of the way. It’s possible that Serena was not really concerned about Potapova winning the match, and had a gameplan, and also that she will play excellent today. This is necessary though as much as it is a possibility. She’s making great strides back to her best form, but the tour has been improving during this period as well. Having a full crowd would be a huge boost to Serena as well, and it may be hard to rattle Aryna without that noise. Sabalenka in 2. Swiatek Halep : Swiatek is just great to watch, and this is a contest that makes me happy. The WTA really is in great shape right now because honestly most of the players left in the event could win the tournament. Halep struggled against Tomljanovic but the next round she cleaned up those errors. She was aggressive and played her usual overwhelming game against Kudermetova. Kudermetova struggled in this one, and was pretty awful in the first set. She found more range in the second, but it seemed like she really was in a nightmare of errors and Halep’s pressure never allowed her to really have a moment to put things back together. Iga and Halep is a close match, because while Iga is likely to be the future, her best results have been on clay. She had a great run on hardcourt in the AO a few years back, but that was prior to her injury and she has struggled since then. Halep is hard to predict. The bookmakers have lent a helping hand here by making this match a pickem. Normally I’d say that points towards Swiatek but she’s such a recent major winner that her name is a big market. I would say that in this case, the pickem line is a real indicator of the tightness of this contest. Swiatek should start winning this match at some point in the future, but is it now? Halep was sharp against Kudermetova but had trouble when Kudermetova started to keep the ball in the court. I think it’ll be tough for Iga to score, and her errors will keep this close. I stil like her upside, and think Halep will play her into form at some point even if she struggles early. Swiatek in 3. Djokovic Raonic : What in the fudge was that Fritz Novak match. After acquitting himself nicely in the first two sets, Fritz seemed on his way to a respectable L. I began to think that maybe Novak bought some stock in the USTA as he’d spent two rounds playing friendly with Tiafoe and Fritz. The the weirdness happened. Novak suddenly couldn’t hit the court. Simple balls, he hit almost predictably into the net. He had slow volleys into the open court and hit the net. He began guessing on all of Fritz shots and chose wrong on all of them. He double faulted. Something was wrong after a fall in the third set, and he spent a lot of time twisting and flexing, which made me think it was some residual neck or back stiffness. He would later tell the media he tore a muscle on his right side, but he’s struggled with back and neck issues in the past. Down 2 sets to 1 against Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz was listed as even odds to win the match. You will never see anyone down 2 sets to 1 and even to win the match against a market like Djokovic, except Nadal at the French possibly. For a random 250 level guy like Fritz to be so was a clear indication that Novak’s physical hinderance was a nail in the coffin. Then the magic happened. The match was suspended while they asked the crowd to leave the stadium. Sure they warned the players they’d be taking a pause to clear everyone out. Sure they kinda made sense by sending them off-court so the crowd would know they weren’t going to continue play until they left. But wow did Novak return to the court almost completely recovered as far as his play and movement. They said Novak was not allowed to receive any medical treatment during the break. So what happened? Did whatever painkillers he took kick in? It is unlikely that he’d be able to compete as well as he did with a serious back/muscle issue even with painkillers. The stiffness and sharpness of pain generally remains. Did the muscle relaxers kick in? That’s a possibility. Did he stretch and miraculously recover? Unlikely, as he wasn’t really working on any stretching or rehabilitation work during changeovers and breaks. I’m not complaining, but the break came as he was pretty much completely finished, and benefitted him greatly as he was able to physically compete when they came back. What was great to see actual as Novak went crippled godmode and roped the ball down both lines over and over on every shot was Fritz competing so hard and playing such good defense. He is a mush and it was great to see him finally fight his way to his best level. Both him and Tiafoe benefitted greatly from their time on the court with one of the best players of all time. The question now, and there are nothing but questions, is how will he recover to play Raonic. The odds have opened at -190 +160 for Novak/Milos, and this is a pretty clear indication that they either don’t expect the match to happen, or expect it to happen with Novak in a pretty hampered form. Within the match, I can see how Novak might want to play through and see what treatment was available. If it’s the same story going in though, and with many rounds left to play, I don’t see his team allowing him to play and risking furthering the injury. This is likely going to be a Raonic win, and the only caveat is that Djokovic has been injured, completely finished, and obviously going to lose in many situations and tournaments already. He has found miraculous 3rd set comebacks and as many pointed out in the 4th set while he looked sunk “he’s always like this, haven’t you learned?” I’ve learned that I cannot learn. Raonic, who is currently dressed like a guy who stole an old lady’s clothes off her clothesline because he wound up trapped outside naked in a bad comedy movie, by forfeit. Lajovic Zverev : Hmm. Lajovic was struggling to gain control of points against Martinez, and eventually decided on outlasting him as a strategy. It worked, as Martinez played a number of lovely points but couldn’t find his way out of rallies. A great result for him, and since clay is his best surface this is just a super bonus that allows him to stay on tour all year. Zverev never really struggled against Mannarino. Mannarino was laughing to his team about the height of Zverev’s serve, and he was wholly overwhelmed by the power. It’s hard to say it, but Zverev is starting to look dominant against a lot of the tour in these 3/5 situations. He also won back to back tournaments towards the end of last year, and made the finals of a major. He is a spindly dillhole, but he’s good at the tennis. Lajovic is a step up from Mannarino in terms of ballstriking, but is a similar level of ineffective at hitting outright winners. I’m underthinking this, but Lajovic doesn’t have a clear way to win other than “hang in rallies and hope for errors or fatigue.” Zverev in 3. Thiem Dimitrov : Well shoot. Thiem and Kyrgios was a classic. The crowd was almost exhausted themselves by the 5th set, and the announcers were excited as well. Thiem looked rattled by the crowd for at least half of this match, and didn’t hit the ball well for those portions. The crowd was loud, and Kyrgios was solid. There is something aggravating about imploring the crowd to make noise and celebrate, and then employing the best friend tactics by saying “too good” to the guy you are actively trying to mess with. The fake underhand serve directly into the normal service motion is one of those things that, while not illegal, is a grimey move. Kyrgios is a classic attention-seeker though, so he can’t help trying to play both sides. “I need them to like me, but I also want you to like me” is the vibe regarding the crowd/box and his opponent. That aside, and his usual immediate non-sequitur bitching to the umpire whenever the tennis doesn’t go his way, he played a good match. He lost because, well, he doesn’t often play good matches. The same way Kokkinakis lost because he couldn’t physically compete by the 5th set, Kyrgios lost because he hasn’t played enough serious tennis to believe that he could hang in rallies. Fatigue is obviously a factor as well, but for a guy who moves as well as he does, training can eclipse that kind of fatigue. He could have won majors if he took it seriously, but he’ll still be a great entertainer and I’ll admit he does cringey things but I do enjoy watching a bit of drama. As it stands these guys have passed him by, and Thiem’s silent comeback was well deserved as he dealt with nonstop cheering of his errors and faults and heckling and Kyrgios even did his own passive-aggressive brand of trash-talking. I would point to the same premature celebration that Tiafoe had as an issue here with Kyrgios as well. There were so many big points for him that it seemed at times he was emotionally drained and looking to drum up crowd support or things to take issue with so he could compete. You gotta manage your physical reserves as well as your emotional ones, and he was in it for a sprint not for a marathon. Dimitrov was scary good for a set against PCB, who had to retire with an abdominal issue. I really have not seen anything from Dimitrov so far that says he can’t win this match. He’s serving incredibly well, smoking his backhand, and he seems focused. The problem is now that he’s playing a guy who’s very similar but with more experience winning at this stage, a better backhand, and more power in general. This is a shootout that Dimitrov will need Thiem to start slow in to have a chance. Thiem’s defending is just as good if not better than Dimitrov’s, and while people think both are cute, Thiem’s instagram comments include significantly more marriage proposals and demands to “treat me like a baby otter and hold me while i sleep” (I counted two of these it must be a thing). Dimitrov’s serving is a bit better than Thiem’s right now. Thiem’s 5 setter makes him significantly more fatigued than Dimitrov, but his training is such that he’ll likely be at his best for some large chunk of this. Thiem can often be a slow starter, which gives the Dimitrov we saw early against PCB a shot, but producing that sort of winning tennis across a match will be Dimitrov’s biggest challenge in quite some time. I’m not comfortable backing Thiem to achieve any specific result here, but it’s hard to say he shouldn’t win. Thiem in 4-5. Auger-Aliassime Karatsev : Auger-Aliassime got a nice gift from Shapo, who found errors late in sets over and over. Shapovalov was feeling pressure, and the look on his face made it seem like he always was fighting the “WHAT IF YOU LOST” thoughts that had to have been flying through his spacious head at a rapid rate. That brings up a very interesting clash against a guy who played the best match of offensive tennis I have seen since watching the tour. If you can find a replay, watch the Karatsev Schwartzman match. Aslan Karatsev hit 50 winners in 3 sets, and there was not a single point when he did not simply outclass Diego. He faced break points and served ace after ace, and when he had a ball to hit or the open court, he smoked it right past Diego. It is extremely rare that Schwartzman doesn’t get his racquet on the ball, and the offense Karatsev produced was surprising even after watching him produce it. I can’t say enough about how well he’s playing, and Gerasimov’s relative surrender makes a lot more sense now. FAA is a different test than Diego, but wow have the odds for this one plummeted. After opening at -274, FAA now sits at -180. This means huge amounts of money are pouring in on Karatsev. So can he win? Sure, and in a 2/3 structure I think he is a favorite, but the 3/5 and FAA’s current form and coming off an easy win against Shapo makes this interesting. Karatsev’s level against Diego can beat anyone. I really mean that. There is a level of offense where the opponent does not matter. The issue here is that FAA brings his own offense in, and since Diego was unable to really get deep into rallies with Karatsev, We haven’t really seen his stamina tested. If FAA is able to win a set, that’s an extra set of offense Karatsev needs. If FAA is able to return serve well, these are extra balls that Karatsev has to play. He is in no way suspect, and it isn’t likely after 3 rounds of immaculate play that his offense will just disappear, but we haven’t seen the errors that have populated his play in the past yet. FAA is fast and deals well with power. This is a completely even match in my head, which says a ton about Karatsev. FAA struggling with Gerasimov last week is a similar thing to what might happen here. For bettors though, after a line move like that, you’re kinda getting in late if you’re backing Karatsev to win outright, and major line movements don’t always mean you’re right. Often the public is quick to jump on a “LOCK!” and everyone floods their money in as if they know something the book doesn’t. I actually felt that FAA opening at the same price as Diego was somewhat interesting, and I don’t often see that with a surging underdog on tour. Generally you’ll see a -274 +224, -200 +170, -160 +140 gradual type regression. Still, interesting numbers aside, this is a close match because Karatsev is relatively fresh, and Schwartzman is the best outside the big 3 at deflating offensive talents. I think he gets the job done here unless we see a huge regression to the mean. The problem will really be breaking FAA’s serve, since lower ranked player tend not to be the most adept returners and FAA is a wayyyyyy better server and offensive player than Diego. Karatsev in 5 if his stamina holds up. Rublev Ruud : Rublev just keeps rolling. Lopez’ serve was negated, and with a very winnable match here against Ruud, the Rublev Medvedev clash seems likely. Ruud struggled but found the win against Albot. It took a really long time and a ton of rallies. Rallies that Rublev will end. Rublev in 3. McDonald Medvedev : Great run for McDonald. It’s gotta end sometime though, and this will be a fun contest since he’s so solid and aggressive from the baseline, but Medvedev is just a defender you can’t hit through. I thought Krajinovic had a chance after watching the early parts of the first set, because simply put, the guy trains with Djokovic and is one of the best counterpunchers on the baseline that the tour has. He’s perfect to play against Medvedev. Medvedev blinked too, but his serve is just too big a weapon for him to lose these difficult matches. As it gets late, he gets the easier holds. He will against Mackie also. Medvedev in 3. Tsitsipas Berretini : Cover me I’m going in. Tsitsipas backed up his struggle against Kokkinakis with a sound dispatching of Ymer. It reminded me of the Mutombo “uh uh uh” finger wagging. Just because the guy struggles at times under pressure doesn’t mean he’s prone to upsets. A great win to get back on track, and he’ll need it as Berretini is playing great ball. There were two weapons in the Khachanov Berretini match. Berretini’s forehand, and Berretini’s dropshots. This combo makes it so incredibly difficult to defend once Berretini gets inside the baseline. He doesn’t hit the bailout “I want the rally to end” dropshots that others on tour do, they are really well done and generally go untouched. The forehand is crazy. He hits the ball so fast that Khachanov who is a great defender really looked in desperation mode. He spent a lot of time just redirecting the ball and it was a good strategy but he didn’t end up with clear ways to win points. When it came time for tiebreakers, Berretini just played better. Khachanov had netcords fly past him when he was in positon for a volley, and just really everything that could go bad did. Still, Berretini’s play was backed up even better by how well he served at times. When he had a set point, he served an ace. Simple, effective. I liked what I saw from Berretini enough that I disagree with the -380 price tag of Tsitsipas. I’m not sure how Tsitsipas will fare against a significant offensive talent, and although Berretini’s backhand is a huge liability, his ability to get it low may give Tsitsipas ample opportunity to make backhand errors. What I think the trouble here for Tsitsipas may prove to be is the same as Khachanov faced. As the sets get deep, it starts to be clear that Berretini is going to play his offense on all the big points, and it can take the racquet out of your hands. It’s rare on tour for such a great server to also have a huge forehand, and Berretini is not really going to be uncomfortable with his opponent or with the situation. These two have played a number of times, with Tsitsipas dominating their past matches and Berretini winning the most recent one (although it was a UTR exhibition). Tsitsipas has had similar clashes against servers wind up deep, and although he has a bright future, and can play a perfect set of tennis, this is not a dominant matchup, but a shootout. Picture Berretini getting to the same 5th set against Tsitsipas. Do you see Tsitsipas pulling it off? Will Berretini be exhausted? Will he struggle to win rallies once he gets control? I’ve overestimated his chances before against guys like Federer and Nadal, but I don’t think Tsitsipas is there just yet. If, on the other hand, Tsitsipas is able to dispatch Berretini in a simple manner, then he has a real chance to defeat Fognini in the next round. I’m leaning into the upset. Berretini in 4. Fognini Nadal : I wanna say it and so do you. This is not the guy who you want to see playing Nadal. De Minaur was in full “I wanna go fast!” mode against Fognini. He kept playing the ball back quickly and down the middle and he kept waiting to get rewarded by Fognini errors. They came, but not on the break points, and Fognini proved that his wins against Caruso and Herbert were not flukes and that when he’s focused he can win. Although bookmakers lines are prices for expected investment, not lines, De Minaur was sat at -500 against Fognini and Nadal is only -600. Nadal is the largest market in tennis year after year. People feel extremely comfortable in backing him at absurd prices because, simply put, he is a machine. He plays every single point well, and he gets better as a match goes on without starting it at a mediocre level. Fognini may not be a winner here, but he has earned some significant respect by only sitting at +450 (or whatever the devilish books have gouged +600 down to on your site). There is a good reason for the somewhat careful price. Fognini is rarely motivated, but has turned in some of his best performances against Nadal. Nadal is probably the greatest competitor we have seen (RIP my inbox), but these are very fast courts and he did have some woes against Norrie. If you’ve read my articles in the past, you know I very admittedly fall for Nadal’s slumps and Federer’s, and bet against them once per event. Is this that round? Fognini hitting through De Minaur means, despite his early errors, that he is cranking the ball at a solid pace, and defending well. His backhand is solid, and his forehand is easy power. He is supremely skillful, and he can make a game of it with Nadal. Downsides are clear. Nadal happens to be Nadal. Fognini is a child inside a conceited man’s body, and gives up when things don’t go his way. He is inconsistent, and his carefree play means he will make errors in spots where he shouldn’t. I’d be wary of backing Nadal here, but he should still win. Nadal in 4-5 (RIP my second super secret inbox).
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