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Megathread: Attorney General Barr: No Widespread Election Fraud

Attorney General William Barr said Tuesday the Justice Department has not uncovered evidence of widespread voter fraud that would change the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
His comments come despite President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the election was stolen, and his refusal to concede his loss to President-Elect Joe Biden.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Barr said U.S. Attorneys and FBI agents have been working to follow up specific complaints and information they’ve received, but they’ve uncovered no evidence that would change the outcome of the election.

Submissions that may interest you

SUBMISSION DOMAIN
Bill Barr Just Kneecapped Trump’s Election Conspiracy Theory - Even Barr, one of Trump’s most loyal acolytes, thinks the election conspiracy stuff is insane. vice.com
Barr says no evidence of widespread fraud in presidential election cnn.com
No evidence of fraud that would change election outcome, Attorney General William Barr says oregonlive.com
AG Barr Says No Evidence of Widespread Voter Fraud After Trump Suggests DOJ Involvement in Election Rigging newsweek.com
Barr: No evidence of fraud that’d change election outcome news.yahoo.com
Barr: DOJ yet to find widespread voter fraud that could have changed 2020 election foxnews.com
Barr: No evidence of fraud that’d change election outcome politico.com
Barr Says DOJ hasn’t uncovered widespread fraud in 2020 election thehill.com
Barr: No evidence of fraud that’d change election outcome apnews.com
Barr Says DOJ Hasn’t Uncovered Widespread Voting Fraud bloomberg.com
Attorney General Barr: No Evidence of Widespread Fraud That’d Change Presidential Election Outcome. wmur.com
Barr says he hasn’t seen fraud that could affect the election outcome washingtonpost.com
Attorney General Barr: No evidence of widespread voter fraud usatoday.com
No evidence of voter fraud that would change election outcome, AG William Barr says ktla.com
Barr says Justice Dept. hasn’t uncovered widespread voting fraud that could have changed election outcome bostonglobe.com
Barr Admits DOJ Found No Evidence of Voter Fraud That Would Change Election Results thedailybeast.com
DOJ hasn't uncovered widespread fraud that would change election results: Barr abcnews.go.com
Attorney General Bill Barr says no evidence of widespread fraud in 2020 election fox13news.com
Barr: No Evidence Of Fraud That’d Change Election Outcome huffpost.com
AG Barr says no evidence of fraud that’d change election outcome wsls.com
DOJ finds no evidence of voter fraud that would change 2020 election outcome independent.co.uk
Barr: No evidence of fraud that’d change election outcome chicago.suntimes.com
Barr: No Evidence Of Fraud That’d Change Election Outcome m.huffpost.com
AG Barr: No evidence of fraud that'd change election outcome abc7chicago.com
Barr: No evidence of fraud that’d change election outcome seattletimes.com
AG William Barr: No evidence of fraud that’d change election outcome triblive.com
Atty General Barr said the DOJ hasn't found any evidence of widespread, results-changing voter fraud pbs.org
Barr: No evidence of fraud that would change election outcome dailyherald.com
Barr says DOJ has not seen evidence of fraud that would change election results axios.com
Barr: No evidence of fraud that’d change election outcome washingtonpost.com
Barr: No Evidence of Fraud That Would Change Election Outcome bloomberg.com
DOJ has not found fraud that would reverse Biden win over Trump, Attorney General William Barr says cnbc.com
Barr future in doubt after Trump campaign blast him for denying widespread election fraud independent.co.uk
U.S. Justice Department has found no evidence of widespread voter fraud: AP reuters.com
Barr finds no evidence of voter fraud cbsnews.com
William Barr: no evidence of voter fraud that would change election outcome theguardian.com
Despite Barrage Of Losses In Court, Trump Camp Plans More Long-Shot Election Appeals wesa.fm
Barr: No evidence of fraud that’d change election outcome seattletimes.com
US Attorney General: No fraud found that could change election aljazeera.com
Bill Barr Appointed John Durham as Special Counsel Two Weeks Before Election Day — Here’s What He’s Authorized to Investigate lawandcrime.com
Barr States The Obvious: No Mass Voter Fraud That Would Swing Election Results talkingpointsmemo.com
Trump campaign hits Barr for no "semblance" of an investigation after AG says no evidence of widespread fraud newsweek.com
Barr: DOJ Has No Evidence Of Fraud Affecting 2020 Election Outcome npr.org
Defying Trump, Attorney General Barr says the DOJ and FBI didn't discover any evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election businessinsider.com
Trump allies Barr, Giuliani at odds on discredited election fraud claims reuters.com
William Barr says there is no evidence of widespread fraud in presidential election amp.cnn.com
Barr and Giuliani clash over allegations of election fraud politico.com
'I Guess He's the Next One to Be Fired': Even William Barr Says No Evidence of Widespread Voter Fraud commondreams.org
AG Barr: No evidence of fraud that would change election outcome washingtontimes.com
Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud apnews.com
Attorney General Barr Says DOJ Hasn't Uncovered Evidence of Voter Fraud That’d Change Outcome of 2020 Election time.com
US Attorney-General William Barr says no widespread voter fraud has been found in the election abc.net.au
After AG Bill Barr says no evidence of widespread fraud in 2020 election, 9 Texas Republicans decry "shocking lack of action" on allegations- U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, also called for the Supreme Court to hear one of Donald Trump's election lawsuits. texastribune.org
Despite Trump's continued claims, Barr sees no sign of major U.S. vote fraud reuters.com
Whistleblowers claiming USPS threw out, backdated ballots before election-New allegations as Barr claims no fraud foxnews.com
Barr says Justice Department found no evidence of fraud that would change election outcome msnbc.com
U.S. Attorney General William Barr said on Tuesday the Justice Department has found no evidence of widespread voter fraud in last month’s election, even as President Donald Trump kept up his flailing legal efforts to reverse his defeat. reuters.com
Analysis: William Barr breaks with Trump's election fantasy cnn.com
Barr splits with Trump on election; pardon controversy thehill.com
Bill Barr bashed in right-wing media after election fraud comments: 'He is either a liar or a fool or both' cnn.com
'Compromised': Fox News host slams Barr for rebuking Trump's election fraud claims haaretz.com
Are Republicans like Ron Johnson fools or liars, or both? As even Bill Barr admits the election was free and fair, the GOP has entered new territory. Now everyone has to say they believe conspiracies and the truth has become irrelevant independent.co.uk
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I will stand on this hill until I die: my half-substantiated argument for a Poland that doesn’t depress you

I will stand on this hill until I die: my half-substantiated argument for a Poland that doesn’t depress you
Hey guys,
So I’m generally very pleased with the ways in which KR is being currently steered. To put aside arguments about “realism”, “plausibility” etc, I’ve heard sentiments echoed by the team that go something essentially along the lines of “Is there some precedent for this? If so, let’s do it”. And I am in love with this train of thought, because that’s by no means necessarily going to be realistic. Otherwise, Qing China would probably remain a Wu Peifu dictatorship hellhole. Megali would likewise probably not be an option, and the Anderson Doctrine (one of the most underappreciated pieces of content IMO, conquering the Pacific as Australasia is fantastic) would probably be pretty unfeasible given that the Entente have bigger fish to fry. The 2ACW would probably not happen, and neither would the British Revolution. Obviously, these are all good things that we want to keep.
Anyway, despite my feeling that things will be steered the right way for every country, I feel there is one that I worry for that I cannot resist writing about – if not to change the minds of any KR higher-ups, perhaps one hopes to, in fact, simply predict where this country will be headed. That country is, of course…

Yeah you read the title
Poland
Now, once upon a time, Sikorski’s Poland with the later Czartoryski coup was, without a doubt, my favourite thing to do in Kaiserreich. Though its detail is perhaps lacking compared to newer areas such as South America and China, my knowledge of Polish history post-partition and the OTL events that followed for Poland from WWI to our very day gave KRTL Poland’s seizure of Ruthenian, Lithuanian, Austrian & German lands a great sense of vengeance, a real phoenix (or eagle?) rising from the ashes. One which, especially relative to something like Greece forming Byzantium, felt very much believable and more satisfying as a result. And it does leave me desiring one thing: a Poland that doesn’t get dicked over by her mighty powerful neighbours – because boy, if there was any country that deserved some goddamn poetic justice from this period, it would be Poland.
For those who might not be in the know, once upon a time, the great power in the east of Europe was not Russia: no, it was at different points, either Sweden or Poland-Lithuania, something that might surprise someone who would look at Poland in 1936, either KRTL or OTL, or even today. Sadly, geography ended up screwing Poland over, and a combination of gifted enemy kings, military alliances and opportunism from her neighbours of course led the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth to being partitioned three times and erased from the face of the earth.
But here’s where things get more interesting, and it’s when we cover events in Congress Poland and Lithuania, as well as what is today western Belarus and Ukraine – there were at least two uprisings by Poles, Lithuanians and Ruthenians (as they were back then, I don’t exactly know when the Ruthenian identity gradually diverged into Belarusian and Ukrainian) championing the old Rzeczpospolita, and to my surprise, and as Augustyn Czartoryski’s bio suggests – his ancestors were prominently involved in both uprisings, the latter of which happened as late as 1863.

Here’s the flag that was used during the latter uprising, for those curious: Poland, Lithuania & Ruthenia being represented. Probably not a possibility for KR’s universe, but fun fact.
Though I know fewer specifics as of the turn of the 20th century, I do know that the Russian Empire as of 1900 was facing serious issues with nationalism, especially in Congress Poland and the surrounding areas.
This was, of course, a weakness that Germany exploited very effectively in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. And if we look to KRTL in 1936, we see that former Ruthenian lands now have their own nation states, and while Poland is once again de jure independent, it’s seriously reduced in size and left as a puppet of Germany. Their new king August IV seems to feel just as unwelcome in his adoptive home as Mindaugas (or Vytautas in the new lore IIRC) does in Lithuania, and it does make me despair at Poland’s new state of affairs. Around a year ago, I had a good chat with Droz and asked if there would be a chance to depose August IV, and while my question couldn’t be answered, I did hear that you wouldn’t have any other option for a king without being puppeted. Furthermore, I can’t possibly say if Belarusians and Ukrainians would wish to be part of this new Poland anyway – sure, they rose up with them in the 19th century, but it seems like Germany has given them a far sweeter offer in the form of their own nation states.
So, does that remove any chance of an expansionist, monarchist Poland? Well, no, but perhaps probably if you put the two of them together. It sounds like whatever king they have is just going to be a figurehead placed there by a power wishing to use Poland for its own means. But let’s go over some reason why they could potentially get claims and maybe even cores on land east of Congress Poland.
Now, while it's debatable that former Ruthenians would be happy being a part of a restored Poland, I can definitely give you a demographic that would be ecstatic to be a part of a new Poland…
Jews
The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth offered, compared to virtually all of Europe, very hospitable conditions for Jews – I’m foggy on the exact details, but take it from a guy who had the great opportunity to visit the Polin Museum last year in Warsaw. Post-Commonwealth, many former Polish Jews found themselves separated in 3 different countries that at best didn't have as good conditions for them as the old Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and at worst were downright oppressive - looking at Russia here. This was exacerbated in WWI, when they found themselves fighting and killing one another, so OTL once Poland was restored many former Polish Jews had a restored hope that things might be better for them.
Around the time of 1930s Poland, there were two schools of thought amongst the demographic: one group, promoted particularly by the Yiddish-speaking community, promoted integration and assimilation in this new Poland. The other group promoted reviving Hebrew and creating a Jewish state (i.e Israel). Now OTL, the former kind of view stopped existing (for reasons I'm sure I don't have to explain), whereas in Kaiserreich, a Yiddish-speaking Jewish community who would realistically be very pro-Poland still would very much exist. Furthermore, given that most of the Middle East will likely remain territory of the Ottoman Empire, might this further give support to those who'd prefer to remain in Poland? This is compounded with Józef Piłsudski remaining a prominent figure in Poland around this time, who encouraged a multi-ethnic Poland whose citizens were united by loyalty to the state rather than religion, for example.
Now, while Jews are obviously still a minority, this is still a population of 3,500,000 spread around the area of OTL 1930s Poland, with around 400,000 in OTL Belarus and upwards of 2,000,000 in OTL Ukraine, and IIRC these citizens would be heavily focused in urban areas. It seems likely that they’d prefer to live within a single unified state, rather than being split across Ukraine, White Ruthenia and Poland, lest they go to war with one another again. While this might not necessitate cores in more Eastern areas of Ukraine and Belarus, maybe this can be represented as a modifier that boosts population significantly for Poland? Alternatively, core the western states but put a negative modifier on recruitable population until a focus/decision is completed or something (Like “Appease the Ukrainians”, “Appease the White Ruthenians”, whatever)? Also, I imagine this was done deliberately, but the new Lithuanian borders in the Eastern Europe Rework mean that a considerable portion of it is majority Polish. Least of which Vilnius, Lithuania’s largest city! Like I say, I imagine this was done deliberately because this will lead to a more dynamic and eventful 1936 when Black Monday hits.
Anyway, back to coring western Ruthenia briefly. As far as cores go, there are certainly more outrageous cases in the mod. It would certainly be more likely than Iron Guard Romania annexing Transylvania and getting cores on the Szeklerland, for example, which as of the 1930s was overwhelmingly Hungarian and would despise the Iron Guard. Meanwhile, a considerable population of Ruthenia (mainly the influential and powerful gentry) considered themselves culturally Polish. This is a demographic who I don’t see losing their influence.
I originally wrote a little more here about how all Belarusians and Ukrainians would perhaps accept living in a new Polish Kingdom – but I have to be honest with myself, that’s probably a pipe dream.

A very beautiful pipe dream though, one must admit. Look at that Russian border!
I will, however, draw attention to a few maps map of OTL Poland in 1937:
https://preview.redd.it/khhol1jxtcj51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d6b8a1a33699e8e5ddaf420eb4aab8770e8b919
https://preview.redd.it/2r7c538ytcj51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=0683f42fd12657a745c3d163f95d1acb055b78a9
As we can see, significant populations exist in areas that not only can already be claimed by a revanchist Poland currently, but even some more outside of Poland’s OTL 1930s borders (See the first image), and once again, oftentimes concentrated in densely populated urban areas. Outside of that, Polish or Yiddish is the second language of much of the population (once again, concentrated in the highly populated urban areas), see the second image. It’s also worth repeating that notable OTL Polish figureheads like Józef Piłsudski believed that Poland could function as a multi-national state, with loyalty to the Polish state being valued over assimilation. He was also positively viewed by Polish Jews for this exact policy. Funnily enough, one of Augustyn Czartoryski’s ancestors also (eventually, he didn’t at first) began to champion these same ideals – Adam Jerzy Czartoryski, if my memory serves me right, who was very prominently involved in the 1863 January Uprising.
Now, is this a view that’s going to be championed by others? Well, as of 80-100 years ago, the Polish uprisings certainly indicate that they would have been. Now, though…? Far more unlikely.
The real issue unfortunately is that this territory is held by states that aren’t likely to give them up to Poland without outside pressure. Now, with this said, the 20 or so years that pass that differ from our own timeline could well affect these ethnic boundaries, but for the sake of what we’re proposing here, we’re going to presume it’s nothing so drastic to massively affect the demographics on the maps above.
Germany would be the one divvying up this territory if anyone, which would be an interesting mechanic for the rework if you needed to attempt appeasing your Mitteleuropan puppet states. I won’t touch on that though, because Germany is not the focus of what I’m writing on here.
So, we’ve weighed aspects that could influence whether or not this could happen, and while there certainly exists some, it’s arguably not enough to mean it should get in-game content. And to this, I must appeal to another aspect of the situation, perhaps the same one that led to the Manchu Restoration being implemented for the Qing, and that is this:

POLAND'S HISTORY IS SO BLOODY SAD.

Whether you’re looking at a century of being split apart, being carved up and invaded by nations that are much more powerful or taking advantage of a weakness, being occupied for over a century and brutally oppressed and assimilated, and finally your people getting killed barbarically in WWII, Poland is a country that knows how to take a hit. And in KRTL, it doesn’t even get the momentary high that it got to live for 20 years before 1939 happened. It’s a tiny rump state that’s traded one overlord for another. Their current king is uninspiring to the Polish people and is merely a symbol of German dominance, in the words of the game itself. The most believable path for Poland, all things considered, is perhaps a concession or two from one of the other Mitteleuropan puppet states. Poland’s fate would seem to ultimately be a jewel in the German crown, and nothing else, her borders seriously reduced. Who wants that to be the only outcome? Any other alternative would seem to likely lead to Poland being invaded by her vengeful neighbours like 1939 OTL, and that’s even worse (one needs only to read time after time about hundreds of soldiers who deliberately dug their heels in and sacrificed themselves, just to make the 1939 German invasion last 10 more minutes, to have that illustrated). I digress, but point being, nobody wants that to be the only outcome, that’s just depressing.
I will appeal to the story side of things – Poland is the perfect underdog, a once great power now fallen and humiliated time and time again. Now is the moment for them to reclaim their birthright and dignity, surely! For them to remain a ghastly shadow of their former selves and just another Mitteleuropan puppet state, sure it’s maybe realistic…but it’s just sad, in the same way Qing China remaining dominated by Wu Peifu is sad. Anyway, given that Manchu Qing exists, I’m sure I don’t need to make this point, and the writers and team in charge of KR are considering at least some of what I’ve written so far (though perhaps likely to a less extreme degree as what I've written). In any case, let’s move on!
Is a True Polish King unbelievable?
Anyway, was monarchism dead in Poland around this time KRTL? Well, their nobility certainly was not, or at least not recently. OTL, I believe the szlachta (that is to say the Polish nobility) were only abolished in 1921 within the Polish Republic – something it seems unlikely for the German Empire who’s just installed a Hohenzollern monarch to want to do. Hell, if you wanted an ethnically Polish monarch, you have not only the Czartoryski, but Poniatowski, Potocki and plenty more. The only thing that’s realistically stopping one of them from taking the throne is Germany, who’d rather have August IV there.
But would they really? Look at Belgium as it currently is – Adalbert is despised, and Germany can grant Belgian independence in exchange for Reichspakt participation. It’s a total win-win for Germany to get rid of their despised monarch in favour of a head of state Belgium loves and wants to follow. Adalbert’s situation seems very similar to August’s, if not worse off, since poor old Auwi doesn’t even have his father’s love. Putting Albert back in charge of Belgium is already one of the most blessed parts of the mod, and for something similar to occur in a country as battered and aching for a win as Poland is, would be awesome. It also seems strange that Poland would not be given territory that's majority Polish - but again, I imagine this was chosen deliberately by the team for a more eventful, interesting scenario.
Now, I don’t really know much about how monarchism and its popularity after WWI in Poland, but I did recently speak to two people who do happen to know a fair bit. So I’m going to go through what they said a little bit and some inspiring cool candidates for the Polish throne that they identified.
1. Another German king – but a Catholic one, rather than a Protestant

Meet Duke Albrecht von Wurttemberg!
So from what I’ve heard other people say, this guy was considered by Wilhelm II himself because he was Catholic, and might be a better fit for Poland as a result. I’ve also seen the current Saxon candidate Frederick Christian, as well as Ferdinand I of Romania’s older brother, thrown around as ideas, but this got disputed between the people I asked, with some arguing even a converted Catholic wouldn’t be accepted and that the Germans wanted non-Hohenzollerns on the thrones of these new states. I overall don’t really know much about them, and I find them relatively uninteresting candidates, so I’m going to move on to #2.
2. A Habsburg king like we have now

Hey, I’ve seen this one before…
God, as much as I love the idea of an ethnically Polish noble taking the throne, Karl Albrecht is a really fantastic choice, and I hope he remains as an option, even if he’s still a puppet. OTL in both 1918, the Polish-Soviet War and 1939 he volunteered in the Polish army. When Poland was occupied, he declared himself to be a Polish citizen, defied the Nazi government and got imprisoned, tortured, half-blinded and sent to a concentration camp for doing so. Just as the current KR events and info about him indicate, he was a Polish patriot through and through, and I’d love to see him remain as an option for a Polish king. Hell, given that a more benevolent (and long-sighted) Austria might well yield an allied Poland Galicia-Lodomeria, this might actually be one of the brighter paths Poland could take as a country. This Habsburg is definitely worthy of the throne in my eyes.
3. A member of the szlachta?
Regardless, and to hell with the odds, this would be my favourite option. One that I find myself interested in because there’s so many different & fascinating avenues to be explored. And after speaking to a few people, I heard a few fascinating options given, especially as candidates preferred by local powers:

https://preview.redd.it/4uqjmd8bucj51.png?width=271&format=png&auto=webp&s=59f20f3d2e586957df2b5f25a2589729dcbbd149
Janusz Radziwiłł – So from what I’ve heard and read of this guy, not only was he the Kaiser’s cousin and had strong ties to the Hohenzollerns maternally, but he lived much of his life in Germany and had connections to German aristocracy. With this said, he identified himself as Polish nonetheless, involved himself with the Polish government when it was both a kingdom and a republic following World War One, he supported Piłsudski, and actually refused himself as a candidate to be King of Lithuania (the throne of which would eventually go to Wilhelm Karl von Urach/Mindaugas II). Like Karl Albrecht OTL, he championed Polish independence and suffered greatly for it, getting interred in Lubyanka and personally interrogated by world-class piece of shit Lavrentij Beria, and after his release attempted to improve the lives of Poles by petitioning to the Nazis (he had connections with Goering amongst others) before being imprisoned again by them!
Come on, guys! This guy sounds like a far better functioning alternative than an effeminate, non-Catholic, non-Pole who’s on terrible terms with the Hohenzollerns despite being one paternally, especially given the precedent that minor houses were preferred to be kings of these nations, as well as hitting the cool factor out of the park. If there was a Belgium-esque removal of Auwi in favour of Janusz, surely this would appease all parties: both conservative Catholic Poland and the Kaiser who isn’t exactly very happy with poor old Auwi. Hell, it probably makes Auwi happy as well and he can return to not living in a country that’s as disdainful of him as Poland is.

Jesus, as I write this, I learn that this guy is king of Poland at the game start of Fuhrerreich. Not sure how that makes much sense at all given Fuhrerreich’s circumstances, but whatever
Enough about him though, onto the next guy.

Our guy Augustyn Czartoryski, who I am already mourning since I don’t see his position as “the true Polish king” surviving the rework at all. Read on for more info…
A Czartoryski or Poniatowski – these guys as I understand, while considered, probably wouldn’t be nominated or seriously considered here, due to having a lot of French ancestry (particularly the Poniatowski as I’ve read) and being considered Entente-aligned in general. While these guys would be fantastic, this is already kind of a stretch as it is and I think, as much as I hate to say it, these guys probably wouldn’t be considered by Germany or Austria. Now, if Russia or France was putting a candidate on the throne, that’d be a different story…so maybe these guys could be considered for a pro-Entente puppet government placed in Poland. This seems extremely unlikely to happen though, requiring nothing short of a full-scale Russian or Entente invasion and capitulation of the Reichspakt. And God knows that Russia might more likely have plans of just annexing Poland altogether once again.
God, what a downer. It seems like if these guys are remaining, it’ll just be in sad circumstances. I’d be happy to be proven wrong, of course, so I’ll shut up now and move on to…

Here’s Jerzy Potocki after meeting with FDR thanking him for sending assistance to Poland in 1939.
Jerzy Potocki – This guy could be an alternative to Karl Albrecht, as he has connections with Austria-Hungary. He was OTL a diplomat and was active in Poland’s political scene. Tbh though, I’d probably still prefer Karl Albrecht.
There are likely tons more candidates that I missed, but honestly, I should probably just stop writing this section already, because with all of this said: I’ve already heard that a new king who isn’t August isn’t going to appear by will of Poland itself, but inserted there by a puppet master. This might be subject to change ofc, and if what I wrote here maybe helps that, happy days.
Honestly, I wonder if those words were chosen very carefully when they were said to me almost a year ago. As I’ve written this essay, I’ve begun to not help but wonder if Auwi was deliberately chosen by the Dev team because he’s such an atrocious, ill-fitting King of Poland. It’s a situation that’s incredibly delicate and could be so easily pushed over the edge if, say, an economic crisis were to strike the world in 1936. In other words, Auwi was chosen deliberately to give the player as much choice as humanly possible to, shall we say, have Germany remove him and look for another candidate, like some of the ones I’ve listed. But let’s just assume I’m wrong about that completely, so we can get onto the last section…
A new Rzeczpospolita Polska?
Please correct me if I’m wrong, Polish readers, but “rzeczpospolita” can be translated as both “commonwealth” and “republic”, right? I’ll continue writing presuming as such.
Finally, a truly fantastic pathway I could see Poland take would be some kind of monarchy overthrow, like Belgium. However, unlike Belgium, perhaps their only option will be to declare a republic. While I was initially lukewarm to the idea, with greater thought it’s something that’s kind of appealed to me. With the old Commonwealth being an elective monarchy, perhaps members of the szlachta are able to run as new presidents for this brave new Poland? A phoenix from the ashes, surrounded by enemies all around. A new republic that, just like the commonwealth of old, was functional and perhaps even powerful despite the diverse demographics that existed within her borders. A republic that follows Piłsudski’s philosophy and ideas for the Polish state – perhaps not entirely far-fetched given how influential a figure he was when he was alive, and especially given that he’ll as of 1936 either still be alive or only recently deceased. Perhaps pragmatism would prevail here when it’s realised that if differences aren’t put aside, and they do not get their shit together in time, they risk being put under the Russian boot again, except this time under an ultranationalist regime that will hate them and destroy their culture through the Russification polices of OTL (Assuming that Savinkov being in power is the most likely option here, it’d certainly be the worst-case scenario for Poland).
Furthermore, the ideas that Piłsudski preached seem like they could be utilised by socialists in Poland, but I have no idea if syndicalism would even be a viable option for not only a country that’s staunchly conservative and catholic, but also completely surrounded by other countries that are either conservative, catholic, or both – i.e, opposed to syndicalism. Still, it seems like Britain and France would be the only ones that’d want to support this new Poland’s claims, seeing as unlike Germany, Austria & Russia, Polish claims and French/British ones don’t overlap and cause issues. It could also either be an interesting parallel to OTL Poland and their relationship with the UK and France in the 1930s, but one would hope things end differently this time…

:^(
Now, the szlachta would certainly not be the only candidates, that I will totally acknowledge. Regardless, I feel like a continuation of the old commonwealth’s virtues has such an appeal to it from a narrative perspective, and the descendants of those who once led this great power raising it from the ashes is just perfect, if unlikely. Let us not forget though, that unlikely things have happened a plenty in history, and the option to do these things, in my humble opinion, would enrich Kaiserreich immensely. It’s some of the more unlikely things that occur in Kaiserreich that carry a lot of charm to them. The Kuomintang rising up and winning in China, the Manchu Restoration, the (potential) prevalence of democratic regimes in the crisis-stricken countries of socialist France and Britain, Mittelafrika electing the Reformgruppe and (my personal favourite) the emergence of a constitutional monarchy in Russia against all odds – I could go on, but you all get the point. Kaiserreich’s world is plenty dark and violent, and Poland is well overdue some good fortune - good fortune that would by extension lead to really fun gameplay, world-building and story-telling.
Conclusion
In any case, I’ve probably made my points as well as I’m able to. I also have no idea how finished Poland is as a country in regards to its rework, so I might be writing this too late to be properly considered. However, in the off chance that it’s not nearly finished in regards to the rework, perhaps what I wrote here can help developers in their mission to create a fantastic new Poland. Then again, I’m not Polish and am really an amateur when it comes to historical knowledge, so maybe what I’ve said is already being considered by people with a greater knowledge of history than myself. What is for sure is that the idea that “Poland is not yet lost” rings true very strongly still in KR – and I hope that this sentiment is utilised to its fullest potential.
In either case, that’s all for this one. Thanks for reading!
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Green and Gold| Part 2| The Takeover: How did that happen?

According to a report published by MUST in July 2019, due to the Glazer takeover of Manchester United, at the then-current payoff rate, United would not be debt-free for another 158 years.[1] Meanwhile, "in the fourteen years since [Glazer] took control at Old Trafford," "just £44million of the more than £660m initially taken out to buy the club has been paid back," while "some £750million has left the club’s bank account simply to service the debt."[1]
In the next installment of our Green and Gold series we will take a closer look at the financial impact of the Glazer takeover and subsequent ownership. But for now, seeing these numbers begs the question: the takeover? How the hell did that happen?
Timeline of Events: A Mini-Guide to a Takeover
The Glazer takeover occurred over multiple years - and multiple bids. The following timeline, created by BBC,[1] provides an overview of the major events, and is included here as a guide for following along with the rest of this post:
Glazer Joins the Ownership Fray
In March 2003, Malcolm Glazer began purchasing shares of Manchester United via a holding company - "Red Football." [1] Initially, the investment was small - approximately 3% of the club. [1] [2]
From there, Mr. Glazer quickly began accumulating shares. By February 2004, Malcolm had accumulated a 16.31% interest in the club, and released a statement saying "he was 'considering options' over Manchester United." [1] [2]
Let the Bidding Begin
On Monday, October 4, 2004, United confirmed it had received a takeover approach, thought to be from Glazer. [1] By that time, Glazer had become United's second largest shareholder, with a holding of 19%. [1] The partnership of John Magnier and JP McManus (through their company, Cubic Expression), owned 29%, and were the club's largest shareholders. [Id.]
The bid would not be accepted.
Undeterred
In the following two weeks, Glazer purchased multiple small tranches of stock to increase his stake. On Friday, October 15, Glazer spent £45m to purchase 15.4 million shares. [1] On the following Monday, October 18, 2004, Glazer spent £17m to boost his overall ownership interest to 27.63%. [1] And on Tuesday, October 19, he purchased a tranche of 1.27 million shares at 285p/share (at a total cost of £3.6m), to boost his holding in the club to 28.11%. [1]
The incremental purchases were important. At the time, under UK law, "anyone who owns a 30% stake in a company is obliged to make an offer for the rest of the company at the price at which they bought their last tranche of shares." [1]
Upon announcement of the purchase, the club's stock price on the London Stock Exchange dipped down 1.5p, to 283.5p. [1]
The additional purchases were reportedly not well-received received by United supporters.
Fan Backlash
According to the BBC, after the October 2004 takeover bid (rumored to be valued at approximately £800m), supporters' groups "were livid, furiously protesting against the [Glazer] proposal." [1]
Sean Bones, of Shareholders United, speaking to the alleged Glazer bid, told BBC Sport at the time: "It's a terrible thing. We don't want a situation where the club is used as part of a loan deal. He will have to take out a large loan and the most likely way of repaying that will be increasing ticket prices." [1]
The opposition to the Glazer bid was not soft-spoken:
Independent Manchester United Supporters Association chairman Jules Spencer has warned: "If Glazer wants a fight, we will give him one."
And Bones, whose group held "Not4Sale" banners outside Old Trafford stadium on Monday, added: "Supporters groups are linking together to defend the club.
"The focus of attention will be to call on all supporters to become shareholders. It will be much cheaper for supporters to own the shares and have an influence on the club.
"Supporters who hold shares want the profits to stay in the club and to go to the benefit of the team and stadium improvements while still having reasonably priced tickets.
"The larger shareholders want profits to be taken away from the club." [1]
An open letter was subsequently sent to then MUFC Chief Executive David Gill asking him to tell the London Stock Exchange's Takeover Panel to order Mr. Glazer to clarify his intentions. If so instructed, the Panel would impose a deadline on Glazer to make a formal bid --- which, if not met, would prohibit an additional takeover bid for 6 months. [1]
Some of the protests were more visible.
United director Maurice Watkins became a target after selling £1m worth of shares to Glazer, and his black Jaguar was daubed with red paint by militant fans' group Manchester Education Committee (MEC).
Its members also invaded the pitch during a United reserve game against Birmingham to protest, while the Red Action Group campaign outside the offices of investment bank JP Morgan, who had been advising Glazer on his bid, before marching to the Stock Exchange. [1]
Meanwhile --- Glazer continued to negotiate with Magnier and McManus over a purchase of their interest. [1]
Glazer "Takes Revenge" and Bids Again
In November, one month after the initial, unsuccessful bid, "the 76-year-old [took] revenge on the club for refusing his stalked takeover bid by blocking the re-elections of United directors Watkins, Andy Anson and Philip Yea at their Annual General Meeting."[1] The action "cost [Glazer,] as JP Morgan dropped him as a client." [1]
One month later (and only two months after the initial bid), in December 2004 Glazer submitted his second takeover bid. David Gill reportedly "snubbed" the offer.[1] The second bid, and the work of Glazer's agents, did not help to improve his image with United's fans.
Following the failed bid, Bob Leffler, a Baltimore, Maryland based PR agent working for Glazer, "claimed fans' fears of the takeover [were] based on 'xenophobia.'" [1] Leffler also said in October 2004 that it was not Glazer's habit to stress his investments with burdensome debt. [1] In response, Mr. Leffler's firm was "targeted with abusive emails and unwanted pizza deliveries." [1]
The Third Bid is Not the Charm
Glazer did not relent. In February 2005, a third bid was received, this one heralded by two of Glazer's sons: Avi and Joel. [1] According to the Financial Times, investment bank NM Rothschild stood behind this bid, at an increased offer of £3 per share. [1]
Fans' anger continued to mount, and the opposition to Glazer's proposed takeover became "even fiercer." [1] MEC "issued threats against the American and his family and any financial institutions involved in supporting the bid on their website and Shareholders United gathered for a peaceful protest in the Old Trafford car park." [1]
United players joined the debate. Then-record-signing Rio Ferdinand and Ryan Giggs both indicated there was no need for ownership to change. [1] Ole Solskjaer also added his voice. On February 15, 2005, Solskjaker accepted an appointment as "the patron of Shareholders United, a group [] vehemently opposed to Glazer's [] takeover plan." [1] Upon accepting, Solskajer said: "I am honoured. I think it is important that the club remains in the right hands. I am absolutely on the supporters' side and think the club is in very good hands as it is today. I am a United fan myself and only want what is best for the future." [1]
Sir Alex Ferguson likewise stated publicly that he opposed the takeover, [1] commenting in November 2004 to a fans' forum that: "There is a stronger rapport between the club and the fans than there has ever been," he said. "We are both of a common denominator; we don't want the club to be in anyone else's hands. That is the way that the club stands with that. I support that." [1]
The third Glazer bid was again unsuccessful. However the chips were beginning to line up --- all Glazer needed for the takeover to be successful would be the support of Cubic Expression - the investment vehicle of horse racing tycoons John Magnier and JP McManus, who at the time still stood as United's biggest shareholder with nearly 29%. [1]
Glazer Wins Control.
On April 28, 2005, the United board indicated it would not recommend Glazer's takeover bid. However, it did not outright reject the bid, either. Instead, the board drew a line down the middle, noting that:
"The board remains of the view that the assumptions in the Glazer business plan are aggressive," United said in a statement. "The board recognises, however, that the price of 300p per share is a fair one and may be attractive to some shareholders of Manchester United.
"Given the board's concerns about the potential impact [of large debts on a debt-free, profitable company] of the proposal, the board has informed Glazer that it cannot provide a recommendation to shareholders to accept any offer made on the basis of the current proposal." [1]
As a result of the Board's statement, the London Exchange's Takeover Panel gave Glazer a "put up or shut up" deadline of May 17 to announce whether he intended to make yet another bid. [1] [2] Given the deadline, it was reported that Glazers would use "fear factor tactics" to persuade McManus and Magnier to sell. [1]
However, this would not be necessary. On Thursday, May 12, 2005, Glazer "won control of Manchester United in a £790m ($1.47bn) takeover bid," with McManus and Magnier selling their 28.7% stake for 300p a share. [1] The bid came just five days ahead of the May 17 deadline. [1] The bid was for the same 300p per share previously offered in 2004. [1]
With that purchase, Malcolm Glazer was able to delist the club from the London Stock Exchange. This step was important - as by "delist[ing] from the stock exchange [] Mr. Glazer could transfer his debt onto the club." [1]
Immediately following the acceptance of the bid, "heavy trading" took place. [1] It was reported that " United's third-biggest shareholder Scottish mining millionaire Harry Dobson [was] already reported to have sold his 6.45% stake after the Irishmen sold theirs," and "[s]hares in Manchester United closed up 34.25 pence, or 12.92%, at 299.25p." [1]
By June 2005, Glazer owned "98% of the Old Trafford club," which "[took] him past the 97.6% level needed to force a compulsory buyout of remaining shareholders" [1] The club, now delisted, belonged to Malcolm Glazer.
Fan Reaction
The successful bid only animated fans:
Some Manchester United fans are so upset that in the last few weeks they have burned Mr. Glazer in effigy outside the stadium, ripped up their season tickets, threatened to disrupt future games and urged a boycott of the team's merchandise and products from sponsors like Nike, which, coincidentally, is an American company.
"That man is not welcome at Old Trafford," said Oliver Houston, spokesman for Shareholders United, a group representing small investors in the team, which had been a publicly traded company. Meanwhile, a militant fan group called the Manchester Education Committee declared Old Trafford to be "occupied territory" and vowed not to rest until it had forced Glazer to sell the team.
The Independent Manchester United Supporters' Association, yet another fans group, is asking supporters to wear black and wave black flags at the Football Association Cup final between Manchester United and Arsenal on Saturday in Cardiff, Wales. [1]
Fans protested outside the stadium last night and an effigy of the new owner was burned, along with season ticket forms, [while] fans chanted and carried banners that said "Not For Sale." [1] [2] [Image]
Fans also questioned Glazer's silence on their intentions for the club:
For Tony Peoples, 35, who works in a paper mill, the problem has to do with attitude. Why, he wondered, has Mr. Glazer not come to Old Trafford to talk to the fans? Why has he not mentioned Manchester United's proud history, its traditions, its larger-than-life importance? "It would be nice if he'd come out and say something and appease people, and put their worries to rest," Mr. Peoples said. [1]
The Rumor Mill: Why did Magnier and McManus Sell?
"In the eyes of many United supporters, Ferguson was to blame for the hugely divisive Glazer takeover in May 2005, with the Florida-based owners of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers profiting from a situation purely of Ferguson’s making. The prevailing view was that, if Ferguson had not become embroiled in a row with the Irish racehorse owners, John Magnier and JP McManus, over his share of stud fees from the Classic-winning Rock of Gibraltar, they in turn would not have slowly stockpiled United shares before selling them to the Glazers. " [1] Stated differently, "many supporters believe the dispute between Ferguson and [Magnier and McManus] eventually led to the Glazer family taking control of United following their purchase of Magnier and McManus’s shares." [1]
So what exactly happened between Sir Alex and MagnieMcManus?
In 2001, Sir Alex Ferguson "was registered ... as a 50 percent owner of the horse [called Rock of Gibraltar] with Susan Magnier, wife of John [Magnier.]" [1] At the time, Sir Alex was known to be "close friends" with Magnier and McManus. [1]
From that day forward, "the horse ran in the colours of the 'Red Devils.'" [1] However, Sir Alex reportedly "hadn't actually paid any money for his share in the horse or contributed to its expensive upkeep." [1] The horse went on to win seven Group 1 races in succession in Ireland, England, and France, and was dubbed by some as the 'wonder horse' of its generation. [1] By the time the horse retired, the stud fee was estimated to potentially be as high as £50m - a figure estimated to dwarf what Sir Alex made for managing United. [1] However, when it came time to decide the details on the horse's future, Magnier and Ferguson reportedly fell at odds. Magnier reportedly indicated "the ownership was a nominal honour that would entitle Alex Ferguson to 50 per cent of Rock of Gibraltar's earnings on the racetrack of £1,164,804 or one stud nomination a year in Ireland and one in Australia, where the horse would 'stand' in the winter. The probable value of these was over €150,000 a year for an expected 10 years. Ferguson initially insisted on his 50 per cent, but as negotiations proceeded, he held out for 15-20 per cent of the stud value of Rock of Gibraltar." [1]
By 2003, two's relationship had strained. [1] Legal proceedings between the two began in High Court in Dublin --- during the time that Malcolm Glazer began staking a claim in the club. [1]
Magnier and McManus then supposedly "put a series of questions through Cubic Expression to the Manchester United board and its solicitors relating to payments to players, the financial organisation of transfer deals and payments to Ferguson himself" which "delayed negotiations between Manchester United and Ferguson on a new contract and Ferguson ... was now put on a rolling yearly contract." [1] The Guardian described it as "an embarrassing list of '99 questions'." [1]
Included among the inquiries the club undertook from those questions was "a potentially embarrassing internal investigation into recent transfer dealings over allegations that an associate of Ferguson's agent son Jason received a commission for the deal involving goalkeeper Tim Howard." [1]
The fight did not play out behind closed doors, either. As the Independent described the dispute years later:
"These questions found their way into the Daily Mail which increased the scrutiny around United. In response the club announced a review of their transfer dealings from January 2001 to January 2004, to be carried out by then finance director Nick Humby.
As it got closer to the broadcast of the Fergie and Son documentary, and the BBC publicity department released some of Millar’s findings, the tension around the club rose. Then, two days before the broadcast of Fergie and Son, United unexpectedly went public with the details of Humby’s transfer review in a move that looked designed to spike the BBC’s guns." [1]
And in terms of the outcome of the club's investigation:
"Of all the United board’s conclusions, the one that made the headlines was that Jason [Ferguson] and Elite would never again be permitted to “act for the club”, although United admitted that they could not stop him representing United players who were existing clients – there were 13 of them. The club cleared themselves, Sir Alex, Jason and Elite of any wrongdoing in transfers, and revealed hitherto unpublished details of payments to agents. United also set out a new proviso that, in the future, agents should declare any connection to employees of United." [1]
By 2004, Magnier and McManus' ownership stood at 28%, and there were rumors they could attempt to take over the club. [1] Meanwhile, Sir Alex and Magnier resolved their lawsuit with a lump sum payment of £2.5m to Sir Alex. [1] The matter was reportedly brought to a close when Sir Alex made a telephone call to Magnier, then in Barbados, which marked "the first time they had spoken since Ferguson fell out with his friend and launched legal proceedings in January [2003]." [1] [2]
Shortly thereafter - Magnier and McManus sold their shares in United to Glazer. [1]
The Role Played by Ed Woodward
Ed Woodward, a Bristol University physics graduate, began his career with PricewaterhouseCoopers' accountancy and tax advisory department in 1993, qualifying as a chartered accountant in 1996. [1] In 1999, he moved to JP Morgan, where he worked as a senior investment banker in their international mergers and acquisitions team. It was there that he advised the Glazer family on their takeover, and was invited to join the club in 2005. [1] As concerns the role he played in advising Glazer, per the Guardian Woodward "came up with the £275m “payment in kind” hedge fund loans at an initial 14.25% interest, to bridge the gap with a £265m bank loan and £270m the family itself put in." [1] These were the same loans that "[w]hen ... refinanced a year later, the hedge fund debts had escalated by £79.1m, which included a £13.2m charge for “early redemption”. [1]
In 2012, Woodward was interviewed, and asked about the Glazers' ownership. In speaking to the debt, Woodward described it like a mortgage:
Our debt, taking a house comparison, is like a mortgage. And it's small relative to the value of the business. And the person living inside it is getting richer and richer and richer in terms of income every year. [1]
How was this different than other club sales?
The Glazers' takeover bid was unique.
Prior to the sale, the club was debt-free. Following the takeover, "[m]ore than one-third of Mr Glazer's £790m offer for the club [was] debt secured against United's assets, such as its Old Trafford stadium, while a further £275m comes from loans from three US hedge funds." [1] The loans leveraged against the club's assets, "originally worth £265m," were "taken out with three hedge funds - Citadel, Och Ziff and Perry Capital." [1]
At one point, the loans held "interest rates on the debt amounting to approximately £62 million a year. A substantial portion of the loans were payment in-kind loans, which the club was paying 16.25% interest on at one point." [1]
Put simply: "The Glazers used around two-thirds of a billion pounds ($859 million) of debt to finance the purchase of the club," and by delisting, were able to "ma[k]e Manchester United responsible for its repayment." [1] This marked "the first time the club had debt since 1931." [1]
We will take a closer look at the debt, and the club's finances, in the next installment in this series.
Past Installments:
Part One: Who are the Glazers?
Next Installment:
Part Three: The Takeover - Financial Fallout of a Leveraged Buyout (title subject to change)
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I'm struggling to believe that change is possible anymore. Please convince me otherwise.

When we badly lost the 2019 election, it wasn't unexpected, but it was dissapointing. When the Labour Leadership Election results were announced, I was ambivalent - again, the outcome was expected. But then, that infamous internal Labour Party Report leaked a few weeks and it was like a punch to the gut. It was heartbreaking to see evidence that certain individuals within the party had deliberately done everything in their power to destroy Corbyn.
So much has happened in the last few weeks. I know for Keir as a new leader of the opposition, the coronavirus pandemic is a difficult situation to manage - he doesn't want to be seen as a saboteur but also has to provide opposition. I think he performs well at PMQ's, but I just don't feel like Labour is providing any opposition at the moment. If you ask the public what Labour is saying right now, they won't know. We've had scandals over PPE and testing, late lockdown and thousands of needless deaths. There is so much that should be criticised, and that's without even mentioning austerity. In politics, you have to be willing to attack, because if not, you are just sort of... there.
The lack of response to the leaked report has also been hard to stomach, as well as the rumours that Emilie Oldknow (one of those responsible for the sabotage) is being considered for General Secretary. I know there are potential legal issues surrounding the report, but people have been suspended for tweeting far less offensive things than those contained in those internal Whatsapp Group and I do feel like it is all just being glossed over.
I want a country where people are more equal, where the media and political system are more open, accountable and dedicated to serving the public, and where the common good is not outweighed by selfishness, bigotry or gesture-politics. I know a Labour government under Keir would be better than what we have now, and I'd vote for it, but I'm struggling to truly believe that a socialist future is possible for the UK and that's devastating. Tony Blair was hardly a left-wing socialist, but I watched recorded footage of the 1997 General Election coverage on Youtube not long ago (I never saw it live as I was born that year). Just hearing that exit poll put a lump in my throat. Britain was optimistic, it had hope, it wanted to modernise and grow and provide a better life for its people. Now, there is none of that feeling.
I also just feel that the odds are so stacked against us. Our brand is poisoned, the media hate us and prefer to report on Boris' baby than issues of importance, and the Tories (which at this point are completely controlled by the British equivalent of the Tea Party) will use every dirty trick in the book to stay in government - lie, cheat, gather donations from tax-dodging billionaries etc. etc. I have truly lost all hope that a better future is possible. Please convince me otherwise.
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Boris Johnson now has a 69% chance of becoming next Tory leader according to trading websites. By electing him as new leader, the Tory membership have just signed their own death warrant

Here are the latest graphs showing the Troy leadership odds. It looks like Boris Johnson has this in the bag now and as a result of this we are going to see the death of one of the most effective political parties in history.
Below, I will list all the possible outcomes involving Brexit going forward and they all lead to Tory annihilation. Having Boris Johnson at the helm is going to make things ten times worse. Remember, they are sneaking him in as Prime Minister so he doesn't have to face a VONC on day one of his Premiership.
The first possibility: the October EU summit becomes a crisis management meeting as Brussels waves the UK off the cliff. We leave with no deal, the long-foretold disaster quickly emerges, and the government either falls or returns to Brussels on its hands and knees or both. The Tories’ reputation is shredded and its fate is sealed.
The second: parliament withdraws its confidence in the government as soon as the PM signals the new approach. Such “moderate” Tories as Philip Hammond, no less, have threatened to do so. The government falls before the October summit. Parliament launches a constitutional tussle to ensure that we do not tumble into the abyss on Halloween. A general election follows and the Tories are punished on both their flanks by Labour, the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
The third: parliament retains confidence in the government but enacts emergency legislation to avoid no-deal and force an extension, in the mould of Yvette Cooper’s bill in April. The PM is humiliated and must seek the extension. Brussels will almost certainly grant it: the EU will not push the UK off the cliff if it does not want to jump, and not even Emmanuel Macron will insist otherwise. After that, see above.
The fourth: parliament presses the nuclear button and revokes Article 50 altogether. Numerous Tory MPs have indicated that they would, however reluctantly, choose no-Brexit over no-deal. The Tories, the proclaimed party of Brexit, will no longer serve any purpose. Labour and the Lib Dems will claim the Remainers and Farage will scoop up the Leavers. The party could quite literally disintegrate.
Let us then retreat a little. The PM senses these dangers and decides to focus on getting the deal through. Simply: he or she will fail. Theresa May’s deal is so toxic it’s not even safe to bury it. Any adjustment from Brussels would involve either softening the political declaration—which poisons it even further for the Tories—or cutting the backstop down to just Northern Ireland, which cleaves the “Conservative and Unionist Party” in one clean slice. No other deal is possible. The Tories will be paralysed and then eaten.
Where next? A referendum. Whip for it and the Tories sign their death warrant. Have it forced upon them and they collapse anyway. And that’s just the torture of reaching the ballot box. What happens if Remain wins? The Tories will lose their raison d’etre. And Leave? Either we will be saddled with a hated deal for which the country will blame the Tories, or get no-deal and even stronger blame. There could be a ruinous general election before the referendum even takes place.
Let us return to the most fundamental issue at stake: “delivering Brexit.” This is what the Tories depend on to keep existing. But Brexit, in any form, will be nothing like what was promised. We will not be richer, freer or happier. Even with a soft Brexit the country will be poorer, angrier and isolated. The Brexit Party will call betrayal, as in all circumstances. Labour will say it should have been done differently. The rest will say it should never have been done at all. The only thing in common is that everyone will blame the Tories and almost nobody will vote for them.
Source https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/brexit-conservative-party-tory-split-outcome-jonathan-lis
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Bernie's Master Plan for 2020 - The Prominent Players & Their Roles [Part 5, 1st Half]

Continued from Part 4
Bernie's Master Plan for 2020The Prominent Players & Their Roles - Part 5, 1st Half
My Introduction to WayOfTheBern. My Political History AKA My Journey to The Revolution. [Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9, Part 10, Part 11] Now here's ONE MORE of The Prominent Elected Players in Bernie's Master Plan & Their Roles within it. A Big One. So big in fact that she breaks Part 5 into 2 Halves because of Reddit's space limits. Enjoy!
Part 5, 1st Half covers Alexandria's role as Bernie's Shadow. Link to Part 5, 2nd Half covering Alexandria's role as The Leader of The Squad.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez = Bernie's Shadow & The Leader of The Squad► Where do we BEGIN with the Phenomenon now known as AOC? Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from The Bronx, New York City was once upon a time merely one of many young Bernie Sanders supporters during his BREAKTHROUGH 2016 Presidential campaign. She was a graduate of Boston University (cum laude!) who was committed to uplifting & revitalizing her home community in the Bronx. By returning home after college, she wanted to end the Brain Drain that removes stellar people from their communities when they sought work elsewhere. So she created a publishing house called Brook Avenue Press intended to educate children & showcase The Bronx in a positive light. Her commitment to The Bronx comes from her father & his side of the family, Puerto Ricans who had roots in the Bronx going back 3 generations. But the systematic neglect of the region filled with Browns & Blacks had Alexandria's mother & father seek better educational opportunities so Alexandria & her brother could live up to their fullest potential. With help from extended family, Alexandria's family moved to the suburbs of Yorktown Heights.
It was here that Alexandria found herself seeing the Twilight of two worlds with the better opportunities of Yorktown Heights vs. the systematic abandonment her extended family still experienced back home in The Bronx. Not to mention the race & class disparities of the 2 regions with Brown Boricua Alexandria out of place in Yorktown Heights filled with Middle to Upper Class Whites vs. but at home with her people in the Bronx surrounded with Working Class Browns & Blacks (Did they REALLY call Alexandria a Mexican over there in Yorktown? sigh). This Twilight lit a fire in her that spurred this Science Nerd to excel in school (with literal asteroid named after her through high school science project) & one day return to The Bronx as one of its Champions. But after her architect father died in 2008, the family eventually lost the ability to maintain their home in Yorktown Heights due to the housing market crash & difficulties with the probate courts (her father didn't leave a will). This ended up leaving Alexandria working as a waitress & bartender alongside her work in non-profit organizations. She eventually got molasses-stuck in her plan to be a Bronx Champion after Brook Avenue Press failed & wondered if she squandered her potential.
Then Bernie Sanders came along & rejuvenated her passion & hope with his Political Revolution setting her on a course that would change her life forever.
Alexandria's entry to The Bernie Movement in 2015 as one of his supporters went to the next level when she was not allowed to vote for him in the April 2016 New York primary due to some nonsense with the Voter Registration. This stirred her to get DIRECTLY involved as an avid Organizer to his campaign as he valiantly fought off the skullduggery of opponent Hillary Rodham Clinton & the DNC, the Democratic National Committee. After Hillary received her karma by way of Trump on Election Night 2016, Alexandria wanted to get involved someway somehow wherever she could. So she goes cross-country with friends to a pipeline protest at Standing Rock Reservation in frostbite-cold North Dakota. The event was spiritually transformative for her & as soon as she prepared to head home, she suddenly gets a call from a Bernie Movement-derived organization named Brand New Congress: "Do You Want To Run For Congress?" Recognizing how molasses-stuck she was working at the bar & feeling like she had nothing left to lose, she decided to run against all odds.
Bernie Sanders' 2016 call for "young people to get involved in the political process" was not lost on Alexandria as she worked as bartendewaitress by day, U.S. Congressional candidate by night. Brand New Congress merged with similar Bernie Movement-derived organization Justice Democrats as she waged her unlikely underdog campaign against THE FORMIDABLE King of Queens, Joe Crowley—the 4th highest-ranking member of Democratic Party Leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives. A year later on June 26, 2018, THE IMPOSSIBLE: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez LANDSLIDED Joe Crowley by 15 points to even HER OWN surprise! The long-range plan Bernie & NYC Mayor Bill DeBlasio put together for New York/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60202005/GettyImages_984862810.0.jpg) worked & a STAR was born.
Ever since that IMPOSSIBLE upset, AOC has been a KEYSTONE for The Revolution quickly rising to THE VERY TOP of importance within The Movement. Instantly, her Star Power, Political Talent, & All-Around Innovation made her one of THE KEY Players to bring The Revolution to Victory. Her constantly rising profile online & offline gives her an ever-increasing Mass Following that has taken the world by storm in such a short time. Because of this, Young Alexandria, the Youngest Woman Ever Elected to U.S. Congress at age 29 & The Baby of The House, is trusted with MASSIVE responsibility resulting in the TWO Roles she plays in Bernie's Master Plan. The 1st one being Bernie's Shadow & the 2nd one being The Leader of The Squad.

Bernie's Shadow
As Bernie's Shadow, Alexandria serves as THE JUNIOR CHIEF of the entire Revolution. The Little Chief behind The Big Chief, Bernie. Similar to Bernie The Chief, Alexandria helps carry the entire Movement on her back. She is ALSO responsible for all the players within it. If she fails, they fail. If she succeeds, they succeed. So just like Bernie, Junior Chief Alexandria has to be more careful in taking a position than others. While she will always push towards "The Left" whenever possible, she takes on stances that have mass consensus & approval or can build into mass consensus & approval. It's easier to get people on board with the Green New Deal than to go out on a limb challenging AIPAC. Unlike Bernie The Chief, AOC's role as The Junior Chief DOES NOT make her the Centerpoint all other players connect to. Nevertheless, protégé AOC functions much like a Double Bernie/Second Bernie in every other way which is why she is called Bernie's Shadow. I mean, just LOOK at these two! ¡SIMPÁTICO!
Being The Junior Chief, Alexandria is the SECONDARY MESSENGER of The Movement. What she says ALSO becomes emblematic of The Movement's purpose & agenda. And being The Junior Chief, Alexandria is the CO-LEAD BEACON to attract people to The Movement. She is ALSO the mascot as well as the secondary representative to get folks on board. See, for those who can't quite accept the gruff grumpy grandpa with the Brooklyn accent & a heart of gold......there's a cheerful cutie-pie Bronx Boricua with the razzle-dazzle, sass & sizzle to draw in what grandpa cannot. Whether drawn in by The Chief Bernie or The Junior Chief AOC, the goal remains the same. It's all about building THE largest energized Mass of People to overcome any obstacle, any rigging, any sabotage put forth by The Established Order. That's the KEY to the Master Plan's success.
But there's more to AOC's role as Bernie's Shadow than functioning as a Junior version of Bernie as Chief. AOC ALSO becomes a RACE SHAPER in the 2020 Presidential Election... ...both in the Democratic Primaries AND the General Election. The Double Bernie effect between Bernie & AOC as Chief & Junior Chief changes when Bernie & AOC are together vs. when Bernie & AOC are apart. When paired together, you get a BOOST Effect that exponentializes the impact of actions Bernie or AOC would have alone. Powerful solo. MEGA-Powerful together. When separated apart, AOC builds Her OWN Power in Her OWN Right essentially coming out of "Bernie's shadow" so to speak. In his shadow, when together. Building her own power, when solo.
AOC weaves in & out between twinning with Bernie & going solo from Bernie at strategic times in order to shape the outcome of the 2020 Race. You saw it firsthand when AOC separated & hung out with Elizabeth Warren talking about Game of Thrones...AND when AOC united with Bernie to say "No Middle Ground!" & "Too Much For Me!" to Joe Biden at the/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/64694797/1148957129.jpg.0.jpg) end of the Green New Deal Tour. AOC THEN sat in some secret hidden room with Bernie to talk about Usury & Postal Banking hitting Credit Card Biden where it hurts most. She acts as a LURE when apart drawing in clout-chasing candidates trying to get the rub from of her Rapid-Fire Rise. See Elizabeth Warren & Kamala Harris. She acts as a HAMMER when together crushing the prospects of contrary candidates with her Rapid-Rising Power. See Joe Biden & Elizabeth Warren. She dangles her Endorsement Power over the Democratic Field forcing candidates to seek it or oppose it then makes her moves to control or squash Bernie's opponents before she permanently joins Bernie for the Ultimate BOOST Effect. It's like "Wonder Twins Powers Activate!" or DragonBall Z's "Fusion HA!" Bernie & AOC then begin a perpetual mutual elevation that guarantees each other wins their individual races. Bernie for Prez, AOC for 2nd term as Rep. THIS is why Alexandria played coy & withheld her endorsement for Bernie for so long. You like the results?

Link to Part 5, 2nd Half covering Alexandria's role as The Leader of The Squad.
Continued in Part 6 John Lucas
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The "Oil Curse" in 2020 - Guyanese Electoral Hijacking

On 2 March 2020 early general elections were held in the South American country Guyana after President David Granger of the APNU-ACF party lost a vote of no confidence.

Oil discovery

Off the coast of Guyana, which shares a border with Venezuela to the West, companies have started discovering oil fields since 2015, the same year as President Granger was elected. In January 2020 Exxon estimated that there are 8 billion recoverable barrels of oil present in Guyanese oil fields. In December 2019 drilling has started, and thus by 2020 revenue should start flowing into the country, which is one of the poorest on the continent. By 2025 the Guyanese oil fields could produce 750.000 barrels of oil a day, according to Exxon. The company expects to double its investment in Guyanese oil exploration. According to some estimates, oil output of Guyana could overtake neighbouring Venezuela by the end of the decade. The oil revenue could potentially “change [Guyana] as a country” and has the potential to “drive development, to modernize the economy and to lift every Guyanese household out of poverty”.
The March 2020 elections are regarded as a test for the next oil-rich country. Will the country regress into strongmanism just as revenues start flowing in, or will democracy persist? Both of the major parties want to seize power this year when the oil revenue will finally start to come in, as they fear being shut out of government. Worse, in a country that is deeply divided among ethnic lines, they fear that their constituents will be left out of a share of the oil wealth if they do not manage to win.

So what happened?

On March 5, three days after the general elections were held, nine out of ten electoral districts of Guyana had declared results. Only Region 4, the largest of Guyana’s regions, still had to publish its election outcome. The People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP) – the largest opposition party – was leading by around 50.000 votes at this point when irregularities were discovered in spreadsheets. Numbers in the spreadsheet did not correspond with the numbers recorded by observers and party officials. Stabroek News reported that “mischief might be afoot”. A suspension of the vote verification process of four hours was held while the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) convened for an emergency meeting. After four hours the counting process started again, but workers complained about exhaustion and thus it was suspended altogether. The next day, a GECOM data entry clerk was found to have a flash drive and laptop in his possession that contained verification data. Data verification of the electoral results of Region 4 was now interrupted completely.
Despite this, and despite the fact that it is unlawful in Guyana to publish unverified results, the officer in charge of the electoral results for Region 4 published them anyway. His declaration had APNU-ACF overwhelmingly win in the region. PPP tallies showed a completely different result. These tallies have been published and observers and other opposition parties agree with these results. Opposition parties started accusing the elections from having been “seized” from them. PPP said they were blindsided by the declaration, and announced that they would request a recount of Region 4 results. Statements made by the governments of the USA, UK, Canada and the EU called into question the credibility of the published results.

The domestic response

Tensions flared in Guyana, as PPP supporters were shot with pellets after they started protesting in the streets and teargas was used to disperse protesters. Protests quickly turned into riots and riot police with more heavy duty had to be deployed. At least one teen died after having been shot by the police.
While protests died down over the weekend, the request made by the opposition parties for a recount was rejected on Sunday March 8, over a technicality, while on this same day the US State Department with harsh words warned that any government sworn in under these results would be illegitimate. On March 10 the incumbent President and presumptive winner under the contested results Granger weighed in for the first time, accusing opposition parties of having intimidated the returning officer for Region 4 which interrupted the verification process of the region. He also said that he would not mingle in the independent GECOM’s work, the chairwoman of which declared that she would wait on the decision by the Court before taking any action. The President further accused the opposition of pushing a false narrative.
Guyana’s Chief Justice on 11 March ruled that the Returning Officer of Region 4 had indeed violated the law by publishing the unconfirmed results. The ruling also included the order to return to the tabulation process of the votes. This was to be observed by representatives from each of the parties. Quickly, the other parties condemned what they say during the tabulation as an “open hijack of the electoral process” and accused GECOM of inflating votes in favour of the incumbent party. Those present said that the numbers that they were presented with were altered significantly, sometimes so that the number of votes was higher than the numbers of voters. All of these inflated votes were in favour of the incumbent.
The OAS, which was present as observer to the electoral process, similarly disputed the count from Region 4, and withdrew its mission from Guyana, stating that the required standards of fairness and transparency were not met. Western diplomats also walked out, while the US State Department once more warned Guyana of “consequences”.
That same evening, Region 4 results were announced for a second time, 11 days after the initial vote. While media were invited to the announcement, reporters that tried to show up were assaulted by those present. It was announced once again that the incumbent party had won.
Despite this declaration, both the President and the leader of the opposition agreed to a full recount of the votes from all ten electoral districts under the supervision of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) the next day. Seemingly a step into the right direction for the transparency and democratic credibility of the elections, the move was welcomed in Guyana as “the only thing that makes sense”.

What is the situation now?

On March 16 the recount was supposed to start, to begin with the votes from the contested Region 4. However, a series of events prevented the recount starting. One obstacle is that President Granger has not signed the one-page document setting out the terms and conditions of the recount, as he is asking for legal advice before doing so. Secondly, after the ballots arrived in the headquarters of GECOM for the recount, it surfaced that the building was scheduled to be fumigated for ants, further delaying the process. Following this, police in riot gear entered the building and ordered everyone out under threat of arrest, including accredited observers and party representatives. No valid reason was given. The judiciary meanwhile blocked the recount from happening in a move that caused the CARICOM high level team leaving the country, while GEOCOM was accused of deliberately delaying the recount from starting to make room for the injunction by the judiciary..
Despite all of the above, neither of the two big parties have presented a comprehensive plan on how to deal with the oil wealth that the country could fall into if handled properly. Commentators have accused both of operating under a "winner takes all" mentality, refusing to share with the ~50% of the country which does not fall under their constituency, as party preference in Guyana is more often dictated by ethnic and traditional factors than policy.
Today, the chairman of CARICOM – Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley – said that it was clear “clear that there are forces that do not want to see the votes recounted for whatever reason. Any Government which is sworn in without a credible and fully transparent vote count process would lack legitimacy”.
As it stands today, there is no statement on when or if the recount will move forward and if observers from CARICOM or other organizations will be welcome there.

How will this impact the potential oil wealth?

A group of 80 global organizations in a joint statement urged Exxon cease business with Guyana if an unlawful government would be sworn in at the risk of rewarding corruption and oppression, which it said were hallmark characteristics of the “oil curse”.
Against this backdrop of global concern for the legitimacy of the electoral process and the well-being of the Guyanese people, we note the deafening silence from the sector that has most exacerbated the recent political tensions in the country —the oil industry.
In the same statement the group of organizations criticized the World Bank and the Inter American Development Bank on their silence. These banks are the financial institutions that are pumping money into the country to develop its oil sector.
While the discovery of oil off the Guyanese coast a mere five years ago brought hope of a future in which the people in one of South America's poorest country could be lifted out of poverty, the circumstances surrounding the 2020 elections could mean instead that the country will be "catapulted back" 50 years. As the CEO of Guyana's oil firm TOTALTECH noted, the country has a unique window of opportunity where it could greatly benefit from the natural resources that were discovered off its coast. In order to do so however, democratic stability, good governance and a legitimate government are needed. The question now is whether the electoral shenanigans from the past two weeks, and the lack of a clear path forward on what to do with the oil wealth, have rammed this window shut.
[Resubmitted with better formatting]
submitted by ThucydidesOfAthens to geopolitics [link] [comments]

DEMOLITION DAYS, PART 95

Continuing
He still came around making trouble, but oddly enough, our little cul-de-sac corner was more-or-less Batshit Crazy-free for the next 34 months.
After that, things sort of calmed down. Well, one of his older boys thought it would be fun to attack Khris, push her off her bike, and try and steal the Uzbek sapphire amulet I had gotten her years earlier.
Khris is not a small girl; she is a corn-fed daughter of the vast cow-pocked hills and rolling pastures of Baja Canada. She didn’t take lightly to some weasely little Arab probably future pole-smokers trying to steal from and assaulting her.
It took more than one punch, but Khris coldcocked the elder of the Guano Insano clan and laid him out so an undertaker could have taken easy measurements. Oh, he was still breathing, but I nevertheless think he was shammin’, playin’ possum until Daddy Dearest could come and rescue him from the rage of wrathful Wisconsinians.
Liam and I were sitting in the porch area of his villa, smoking cigars, drinking our sunrisers, watching the tableau unfold. We both thought Khris handled the situation well, particularly the outcome. The miscreant was out cold’n a foundered mackerel and Khris didn’t heel-stamp him in the chuckle-bits nor curb-stomp his head even though he had initially, and without provocation, punched Khris in the head.
Major stylistic points, Khris.
After 6 or 7 of his offspring rant to alert him, Señor Srībaśita Inasēna came over to shovel his insensible frogspawn up off the tarmac. He was ranting and raving, screaming and splitting the air with threats, dark oaths and other forms of bad noise.
He headed straight for Khris to administer a smackdown, as Khris resolutely held her ground.
I merely stood up and asked Khris if she needed some help.
She replied in the negative, stating that this fool wasn’t going to be much more of a challenge than ‘his idiot kid’
I swear, he went, even more, batshit crazy. However, something clicked and Señor Srībaśita Inasēna looked over his shoulder to see not one, but two near-identical way-more-crazy than he extra-large people standing there, both with cigars and icy cold drinks. He suddenly seemed to experience a spate of total recall how one of the large apparitions said he’d begin him on his journey toward room temperature if he so much as sneered in our direction.
He scooped up his unconscious spawn, muttered something none of us could make out, and scurried back to his loathsome piece of home real estate.
That was more or less the end of our run-ins with Señor Srībaśita Inasēna and his extended tribe.
Swing forward to the late summer. The weather calmed a bit and one’s skin didn’t immediately bubble every time one went out to collect the local morning news-rag. Things were going well for the cul-de-sac; jobs were advancing apace, children were doing well in their various studies, people were, oh what was that word? Ah, yes, happy.
Happy people do fun things.
So, it was decided it was time we have a block party.
Of course, Liam came up with the brilliant idea that we should have a pig roast.
“Umm, Liam”, I ahemed, “In case you forgot, we live in an Arabic Muslim country in the Middle East. Pigs and pork and porcine parts are sort of verboten around here. “
“Ok, Rock”, Liam laughed, “I know that, you know that, my hat knows that. But we Brits must have our bacon, sausage, and chops. It’s in our DNA. Besides, I can get one flown in through my company; under the wire. I could sneak him over here easily. We’d just have to keep him under wraps until bar-be-que time rolls around. You’re from Texas, so…”
“Adopted native son” I corrected.
“Right”, Liam continued, “But you were from Baja Canada first, so you must know how to cook a whole pig…”
“That right, I do, but…, I said, “…you want to bring a live pig in here, and keep him for a while until we can sort out the cooking necessities. We can’t use the industrial-sized stoves in the rec center at the pool. That’d raise a few eyebrows…”
Es and Cassandra wander over, listen for a bit and exclaim “Are you both out of your tiny, little minds?”
I had to admit, as I poured Liam and myself a refill, that the idea did have a certain ‘Up Yours!’ mouthwatering bacon-scented charm.
So, all four of us sat outside and over beer, vodka, and white wine for the ladies, we brewed up a perhaps passable project for our pig party.
The thing was, I’d be gone offshore for a couple of weeks and the pig would have to live at someone’s villa, under wraps, for that time; which actually escalated to 3 months.
Esme, surprising as always, volunteered to take on the task.
Might have been the white wine talking, but she admitted to missing bacon as well.
“OK, but we’re going to need a bar-be-cue pit. Where and when?” Liam asked.
“I’ll talk to Shiehk Gungan and secure permission for a Hawaiian-style pit bar-be-cue for someone or other’s fake birthday. If we can get Vonn and Honey Bee on board, their villa’s backyard backs up to a tall brick wall bordering the alley behind the City Centre. I could put in a pit there easily, and it would be out of the purview of prying eyes.” I said.
“Good”, Casandra said, “Let me get the gin and tonic makin’s and get Vonn and Honey over here as well as Dane and Dyad. Gonna have a block party, make sure you invite the entire block.”
Over the term of the afternoon, we had our plans.
Liam would secure a pig for us; approximately 200-300 pounds, on the hoof. It’d stay in our backyard under both our sun tarp and Esme Srs.’ care until Pig Killin’ Time. Liam, Vonn, and I would handle that little chore. I’d get permission to ‘dig’ a pit and install the bar-be-cue pit in Honey and Vonn’s back yard. Liam and I would handle the actual roast, and we’d all chip in for charcoal and wood smokin’ chunks, and whatever else we could find.
Dyad said she knew many, many farmers it the area and many had fruit trees, in various stages of repair. Certainly, some of that would smoke up a treat. Persimmon, pomegranate, fig, mango, durian, banana…all the earmarks of a weird pig roast.
So we had a date, a plan and the ingredients for a complete fiasco. Since Sr. Guano Insano was no longer part of the picture, and as we had few interlopers, this might actually work without all of us being tossed into the hoosegow.
I’d liberate a bit of pit diggin’ materials from work, just a small amount of dynamite, C-4, and Primacord; I already had the blasting machines. Vonn and Liam would lay in the charcoal and wood for the actual pig roast and well, Bob’s your uncle.
I went offshore to complete the 12th well on the platform and had to deal with all the logistics, bureaucracy and other sanctioned horseshit that comes with the territory. It took almost exactly 3 weeks, and at that time, Esme’s initial negative reaction to pig-sitting had changed considerably.
She had named the critter and found it to be a rather clever, and even sociable, beast. She even allowed it free reign of our house.
The name she chose was one from an old, endearing structural professor: Prof Pinkus (Prof. Pink-ass).
Ahem.
This was an unforeseen complication.
“Es, remember, “ I said over the phone, “That pig is not a pet. It’s not your buddy. It’s not going shopping with you. It’s going to be the guest of honor at a block party. Perspective, please.”
“Oh, Rock”, Es gushed, “I know that. It just makes it easier to keep up with Prof. Pinkus if you treat him like a pet rather than livestock.”
“Es!”, I yell, “He IS livestock. Soon to be deadstock. Soon to be crisply pit barbequed to a crackly crunch. He’s not your friend, he’s breakfast, lunch, and dinner!”
“OK, love you too.” Es says, ignoring me, “See you soon. Safe flights. Keep the shiny side up.”
I hang up. “Oh, shit. This does not bode well.” I mused on the flight shoreward.
I have to admit, pigs can be personable animals. Canny, inquisitive, seemingly intelligent. But even so, that does not trump them being delicious, appetizing, and delectable generators of bacon. Prof. Pinkus is going to be ham, bacon, and sausage soon. Not a boon companion.
The next day I ‘dig’ the pit for the barbeque. I used a shovel for exactly 2 minutes and dynamite, C-4, and primacord for a few more. Vonn was astonished that I not only dug a 6’x6’x4’ wide hole in less than an afternoon, but that I did it while smoking a cigar, drinking an, ok, several icy adult beverages, and never even breaking a sweat in the hellish late summer heat.
The Bobcat with the mounted backhoe, which I had ‘borrowed’ from work, helped a little.
Liam wandered over after the pyrotechnics were done. He didn’t care for them as the noise ‘offended his ears’. Truth be told, he had seen enough pyro jobs go south in his line of work and wanted nothing to do with them. I assured him I was a licensed Master Blaster as well as the one and only Motherfucking Pro from Dover, but it took some time to get him up to speed on the use of explosives for fun and profit.
We let the pit settle, as it was in mostly in desert sand held together with a bit of aeolian clay, or loess. We kept it wet and covered with sheets of canvas. It’d be fine for our pit barbeque in the days hence.
Vonn, Liam and I fabricobbled a cover for the pit which was made of thatched palm fronds supported by ½” pine furring-strips frame along the outer surface. Dane found a hunk of tin stove pipe and we fashioned a nicely workable chimney for the cover. Once the fire was going, and the pig in its new home, we could set the cover over the pit, shovel earth over it to seal it off and use the iris-valve in the chimney to regulate airflow.
One looks at it now, it would almost appear that we knew what we were doing.
Probably nothing was further from the truth.
We needed to ‘season’ the pit, but first, we needed to line the pit with rocks. This serves to hold the heat, and will even out its distribution. But, all we have to use is limestone around here and if limestone ever gets wet, there might be water in the fractures of the rocks. Heat that up to over 1000C and you’ve got yourself a nifty little bomb.
Of course, this will not do…
So, I get on the phone with several ‘exotic’ marble companies in the big city of Duhu. I call around asking if they might have some scrap sheets of granite, quartzite, granodiorite or marble.
Sure, for a price.
However, there was this one place where I knew this guy…
He took in huge, and I mean 4m x 5m x 5m blocks of exotic rock from the subcontinent; black granite, “Reaping Equinox’ black and white ‘granite’; most all these ‘granites’ were granodiorites, Inferno Granite, Black Sunset granite sliced thin into façade facing dimension stone, it was absolutely gorgeous in cross-section. However, the best stuff was igneous-metamorphic, tougher than a $2 steak, and just laughed at diamond carbide saw blades.
“Oh, sure now Mr., Dr. Rock”, Mr. Prakash Dongerkerry, the owneoperator of one particular lot I scavenge for Esme’s continuing lapidary hobby, “I’ve got some beauty stuff here for you. But I need some help with these couple of blocks I received from Kerala. Great rock, very pretty, but too tough. Burn out many saws, boss. You can help maybe?”
“Sure, Prak”, I replied, “I can help, no sweat.”
So, next Friday Liam and me, we eased over to the granite factory, C-4, blasting caps and Primacord in hand. Prak was a little apprehensive about using high explosives in a densely populated area, but after Vonn reminded him that he was working with the Motherfucking Pro from Dover, he relaxed some.
I crawled all over those blocks, marking with orange spray paint the nature fractures, flaws, and features of each block. Asked Prak how he’d like them split, and he indicated parallel to the major axis.
It couldn’t be easier. There was a main body-fracture system normal to the σ1 stress direction. The one’s parallel to the σ2 and σ3 were minor and nowhere near as clearly developed.
I smooshed some C-4 into a test fracture, primed it and shot it without much ado. It was surprisingly quiet for a detonation. A cute little C-4 POP.
A large slab of rock fell off the main block, severed as nicely as a hunk of cold butter from a hot knife.
Prak was thrilled. I only had another 12 or so shots to go.
They all more or less came off as planned. One or two busted when they bounced, even after the addition of old car tires below where I was blasting.
Prak, good to his word, showed us a huge pile of 1.25” thick sawn quartzite slabs that were rejected for mostly cosmetic reasons. It takes a bit of math, a bit of doing, and a lot of C-4 to extract slabs enough to line our fire pit from stem to stern, top to bottom.
Once installed, the pit was a tad less wide, a bit less deep, and a smidge less long, but it was the only Precambrian-quartzite lined bar-be-que pit in this or any other known galaxy.
We celebrated the initial fire up with whiskey and hors-d'oeuvres. I stuck with vodka, ice, lime, citrus stuff, and a Jamaican cigar.
The pit flared from the amount of dry wood we initially used. It burned very quickly into a pile of glowing embers. Now, we added some local lump charcoal and popped on the top, now sporting an exhaust chimney with a rather large, intrinsically-safe, unusually commercial-looking dual-temperature thermometer that somehow just appeared out of the ether.
We took it all the way up to 1,000C. Although it was designed for ‘low and slow’, we wanted to see how it would perform under alternative conditions.
We let it simmer for a few hours, then decided to kill the fire by closing the iris valve. Thus deprived of oxygen, given a few hours, the pit would be cold to the touch.
The next day, we opened the pit and shoveled out the dead embers. The pit was well and truly cold. Upon examination, it seems that the quartzite had fused to the sand on the outside of the pit. Also, sand had filtered down into the cracks around the pit, like in the corners, along joints, and been fused there as well.
The damn thing would now hold water if we wanted. We had a natural glass-lined fire pit now. We decided to try out some racked & stacked chickens first before we slowly made our way pig-ward.
We staked split chickens out on various levels in the pit. We had worked up a series of adjustable metal frames where we could lay the staked-out poultry. The racks popped right in place and after a couple of hours, hey presto bar-be-qued peri-peri chicken. And hot-butter roasted chicken. And for the uninitiated, roast chicken with smoked Hungarian paprika and Indian ghee. A real Iron Chef fusion-style mixture.
Liam and I took his Grady White out on the Persian Gulf and managed a couple of dorados, or Mahi, a largish shark, and a couple of kingfish off the deeper shipping banks. Fileted up and tacked in place, we played around with the smoking woods. Mango was just weird. Fig was weirder, almost vinegary; but not terrible. Pomegranate/tangerine tree smoked Mahi, seasoned shark steak, and Kingfish was the hit of the week. So easy, yet so tasty. It went well with Es’ famous Navajo Fry Bread.
We were gaining confidence. Prof. Pinkus’ days were numbered. We decided that the Eid al Fitr would be the time that we’d been preparing our porky pit pig production.
How’s that for cultural sensitivity? Break the Ramadan fast with a pig roast.
We’re all about cultural sensitivity.
Anyways, we hemmed and hawed over the methods of dispatching our soon-to-be-delicious 325 pounds of Professor Pinkus.
One wag suggested we have it OD on tranquilizers, trip him out a la Heath Ledger. Use loads of Nytol®, Dramamine™, oxycodone, hydrocodone, diazepam, temazepam, alprazolam, and doxylamine."
It was straight out of the Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers©.
We all agreed it was funny as hell, but that it probably wouldn’t work.
Then we thought we might go all Halal, just slit the pig’s throat with a very sharp knife, and let it bleed out.
Rejected as to being too thrashing, too noisy, too Arabic, and just plain uncivilized.
I thought I could get hold of a 12 gauge shotgun and some Foster Deer slugs. But again, noisy and messy. Besides, I’d have to borrow a shotgun, and that might raise some eyebrows.
We’ve managed to keep Prof. Pinkus under wraps now for almost 3 months. Hate to blow it right before the feasting was to begin.
In the end, all it took was an 18-pound maul and a solid whack to the right side of the head.
More sensitive viewers might want to skip a dozen or so paragraphs ahead. Just fair warning™.
I was elected to deliver the coup de grâce.
After walloping a bound and gagged Prof. Pinkus upside the head and basically caving in the skull, severing the skull-spinal cord connection at the atlas/axis connection, it was instant lights-out, he felt nothing.
We had already apologized to Prof. Pinkus, and thanked him for his contribution.
Seldom before has lunch ever been so noble.
Prof. Pinkus freezes and collapse, the legs give way, and the neck goes rigid. We picked up the extraordinarily sharp butcher’s knife sitting there, one hand under the chin and pull the head back. The other hand takes the sharp, stout knife under the neck and slices across the neck back to the bone of the vertebrae.
The knife hand loops around to the poll of the head, pushes down and forward while the hand under the chin pulls back and rearwards, so the neck vertebrae connecting tissue cracks. Knife hand back down under the neck, chin hand slides up and a finger hooks into the trachea and slice between the separated vertebrae.
With our previous practice and experience, 10 to 15 seconds from hammer strike to the semi-decapitated head.
Grisly but necessary.
Hanging the beast by its back hocks, well out of sight of any casual interlopers, we bleed the animal out into 5-gallon buckets, saving the precious juice. Vonn and I have visions of homemade blütwurst, blood-n-tongue sausage, and zultze or schwartamaga; lovely, lovely headcheese.
But that’s for later. Vonn gathers the blood in gallon-size freezer zip bags.
Now to scalding the corpse, scraping off the hair and external epidermal debris. We had a tub of boiling water into which Prof. Pinkus went. It was a boring, tedious, annoying repeated dunk-soak-raise-scrape-return until the carcass was clean and smooth and removed of all nasty gunk on the outside.
Now comes the really icky part™, gutting and scraping out the carcass. Before opening the abdominal cavity, it was required to de-bung the animal. Cut around the anus, go in deep but not too, pull the bunghole out, seal with zip ties, and cut and discard. Now the lower GI tract is sealed from leaking when the rest is removed. We also have to remove the male dangly bits in a similar manner as Prof. Pinkus was a boy hog.
Still hanging, we open the hog from sternum to groin, letting gravity aid us in helping Prof. Pinkus literally spill his guts. Right down into a waiting gut-bucket, or galvanized 50-liter steel tub. The chest region is split open further and the lovely and delicious major organs are singly removed by hand. Heart, liver, kidneys, etc., lungs, gall bladder, spleen, pancreas, and a few other organs are discarded.
With that, we open the hog to where it will lay flat on the roasting rack. It is then hosed off and generally cleaned up before we give a good going over.
After it dries, the whole gutted critter is washed in wine. Evidently, it’s a French thing according to Honey Bee.
We wrap the hog in burlap, soak it down in cheap-ass wine and let it sleep 24 hours or so in Liam and Cassandra’s freezer chest.
The next day, the fire is started in the fire pit. We have lump charcoal, bucket after bucket of fruit tree chunks soaking in water and probably half a rick of firewood to keep the party going the next 24-36 hours.
We retrieve Prof. Pinkus from his cool, not frozen state, say hello and proceed to arrange him staked to the cooking frame in a belly-down, butterflied posture. Internally, he was well seasoned with dry rub after the obligatory internal rubdown with Napoleon brandy. We placed 40 garlic bulbs, kosher sea salt, olive oil, black pepper, and liberal amounts of Old Bay, to taste beneath him.
So, it was up to me to get the external goo ready for the pig. Kansas City-Style Sauce? Eastern North Carolina Vinegar Sauce? South Carolina-Style Mustard Sauce? Piedmont or Lexington-Style Dip? South Carolina-Style Mustard Sauce? Texas-Style Mop or Basting Sauce? Alabama White Sauce? Wisconsin Drunken Religious Experience Sauce?
“Ah, the hell with it!”, I venture, “Sauces come much later. Too early; they caramelize, crystallize, and burn. We’ll go for a good rub instead.”
I mean, who doesn’t enjoy a good rub now and again?
Anyways, which fucking rub? Kansas City Rib Rub? Mustard Rub? Spare Rib Rub? Memphis-Style Rib Rub? Porker's Rib Seasoning? Best Odds Rib Rub? Carolina Dry Rub? Texas Dry Rub? Jamaican Jerk Dry Rub? Classic Pork Dry Rub?
Too much choice! Seasoning overload!
I call over everyone involved in this little soiree and instruct them to come up with a rub we can all enjoy. I had to kill and gut the critter, it’s about time I go all Subsurface Manager, and delegate out some parts of this project.
So, over beer, G&T’s, vodka and lime soda and various Froggy wines, ‘my’ crew came up with a rub that was simple, tasty and ironically reflects some of the culinary aspects of the region we’re currently defiling.
Ingredients:
• Smoked Hungarian Red paprika
• Brown sugar
• Caster sugar
• Black pepper
• Kosher salt
• Cayenne pepper
• White pepper
• Chili pepper
• Dehydrated garlic
• Dehydrated onion
• Fenugreek
• Red Cardamom
• Turmeric
• Ginger
• Garam masala (Cumin, Coriander, Green and Black Cardamom, Cinnamon, Nutmeg, Cloves, Bay leaves, Peppercorns, Fennel, Mace, and dried Chilies.)
They went to the co-op, bought buckets of the individual spices and played the rest of the day at getting to that one perfect combination for our resting porker.
I don’t remember the exact breakdown of the proportion of the spices, but whatever it was, it tasted brilliant. Now we had about 8 or 9 pounds of the stuff. We were ready to go.
Prof. Pinkus was set on the cooking rack, belly open and down. He was doused internally once again liberally with cheap Indian Napoleon brandy and secured to the rack atop all the garlic, celeriac root, boudin, and small new potatoes.
He was tied in place with heavy organic hemp twine and had his mouth propped open to facilitate circulation of the pit’s heat and convection. He looked very Pink Floydian. One almost expected him to take flight.
The exterior of the porker was treated to a nice rubdown. I swear I saw him smile once or twice when Honey Bee insisted on a sensual massage to make the resultant meat that much more tender. Olive oil infused with lime oil and garlic after a thorough wash with more brandy. Followed by a liberal rubbing of dry rub.
Finally, ready to go, we tented the porker loosely with industrial-strength silver aluminum foil. The frame with its cargo was lowered and locked into place for at least 24 hours. Probably closer to 36, as we’re going ‘low and slow’.
We take turns, between hands of poker, cribbage, and Schafskopf, as well as numerous G&Ts, Yorshs, and vodka and lime drink cocktails, to check on our prized porker. We kept the temperature right at 2050 F as best we could.
The voluminous smoke coming off the barbeque pit was our one concern. It packed an amazing aroma and filtered around the whole compound, dragging in expectant pikers, leeches, and other forms of human ectoparasites.
We told them we were smoking a whole camel, Texas-style, a la filét de hump, and wouldn’t be ready for another couple of days; so piss off. That seemed to get rid of all but the most insistent. We finally got rid of him by using a leaf blower and directing a stream of high-velocity roast-pork laden smoke his direction each time we had to add more fuel to the fire.
Time marched on and the time finally came: the deep internal ham’s temperature hit 180 degrees F.
Prof. Pinkus was ready to make his debut. But first, we needed to get him out of the barbeque pit and over to Vonn’s garage to rest a while.
More futzing, more aluminum foil, and more beers later, Prof. Pinkus, in all his delectable roasted glory was cooling out from atop a pair of sawhorses. Of course, he had to rest after his ordeal, but that didn’t mean we couldn’t manage a few samples.
He was done to a turn. It was incredible. Crispy-crunchy-crackly over lean, moist and insanely flavorful meat. Not bad for a bunch of bumbling international mugs on their first Middle Eastern pig-roast pit-roast endeavor.
Everyone made up their own version of sauce for sandwiches and dipping. We decided that we’d never all agree on one sauce, and 4 or 5 on one porker would be just too damn many.
So, please yourself. Just do it, yourself.
Behind closed doors, Liam and I were once again elected to reduce Prof. Pinkus to primary parts. We were hopefully disguising the fact that here sits 185 pounds of delectable roast pork in a very Muslim country on one of their highest holy days.
So it was a bit unnerving when Sheik Gungan showed up and asked: “What was that wonderful aroma?”
We said smoked beef…lamb…camel…turducken…Tyrannosaur… anything other than what it really was.
He asked for a sample.
What could we do? We couldn’t well refuse now, could we?
We gave him some of the best bits to try.
“Lovely, gents, just lovely. Next time, for reference, more garam masala, and a little more rosemary. I find it really brings out the subtle flavors of pork.” He smiled, wiping his pork-sticky fingers on my HGGTG towel.
“You old fraud”, we all smiled at once.
“What?”, he shied, raising his eyebrows, “It’s for scientific evaluation purposes. It’s therefore allowed. Now, do you have any cold beer, gin-n-tonics, or vodka and lime, which I’m hearing is very nice together, that I might also scientifically sample?” he smiled toothily through his long white beard.
We had made another powerful friend. Although it cost us one smoked Boston Butt, actually off the shoulder, that’s butcher’s for you, and a half a liter of homemade Texas-style barbeque sauce and another of Esme’s homemade fennel and caraway-infused coleslaw.
Everyone on the cul-de-sac now had a freezer full of pit-roasted pork. The Brits got their sausage once Vonn and Liam figured out how to use the Osterizer® Stuffing Horn. That was almost as much fun as doing the pit-barbeque. Never leave to Brits what Baja Canadians can better do.
We distributed the bacon and hams, and the rest divided whatever was left. Which was a lot of pit-roasted pig pieces and parts.
The bones made their way into gaily wrapped gifts and were posted anonymously to Mr. Guano Insano. We hoped he appreciated all our effort.
I used Esme’s great-grandmother’s old German recipe for Headcheese. Basically, boiled smoked pork head meat in aspic jelly. With dill pickles. And pickled eggs. With special spices.
Well, I don’t give a shit. We like it.
Anyways, summer slowly slid south and the temperatures during the day got slightly more tolerable. Liam and I decided to forego his boat for a while, as launching and recollecting required us to put Liam’s boat in the water HERE and recover the boat THERE. It was trucked, via road, from the recovery place to the launch place.
Why? Damnifweknow.
It only cost something like US$5 to ship the boat back to the launch area and they actually did a good job hosing and steam cleaning the boat before parking it back in its rental dry dock. These were still the early days before gas was king in Qutur, so things were still ridiculously cheap. There were exactly 3 high rise hotels back then, as compared to the insane silhouette presented by Duhu’s current evening sun.
I had flown over some likely looking flats that might hold snook, grouper, and tarpon on my last flight back from the rig. I translated that onto whatever road maps we could find here, as most everything was a state secret, ground verification was a must.
Liam and I tossed a couple of surf rods, a cooler full of beer and some bait into the back of his new diesel Mitsobitchy Prago™, and we were off to the north of town, the least developed chunk of Duhu real estate to date.
We drove down a rip-rap road that was more just a pile of random rocks trucked into the bay area and dumped into something that resembled a straight line.
I was less than confident that we weren’t going swimming today, but Liam relished every bounce, bolt and jolt. He confided in me that one of the big reasons he took the job here in the Middle East was that he’d never in a million years be able to afford a truck like this back in bonny Scotland™. He confided that he couldn’t have even afforded the fuel for this diesel-slurper back in the UK, it was that dear.
So, down the path we rebound. I was watching the water on both sides of the narrow groin, and saw it was getting deeper, but very slowly. I looked at my GPS and saw that we’d driven some 3.5 km out to sea at this point.
“Liam”, I said, “That’s a fuck of a long way to reverse.”
“Ah, Rock”, Liam assured me, “ No worries, Doctor. It’s all a loop. We can just drive our way out of any trouble.”
I remained unconvinced.
We came to a breach in the ‘jetty’. There was some heavy marine equipment mounted on barges. They were working a large cut, ostensibly for cargo ships to pass through. There was to be a swing-bridge built after they cleared the channel, but with all these loose rocks, it was putting paid to their scheme.
We parked and wandered over to who appeared to be the head guy.
“G’Day”, “Liam says, “What’ the big fucking holdup? We’ve got fish to catch, mate.”
Liam had previously spent a few years down in Australia as if it didn’t show.
“Oh, hello”, the natty clad black man said, “We’re having a bit of a time with loose rocks here. Supposed to be angular to lock in place, but by the time they get here from the quarry, they’re a sharp as bowling balls.”
I introduced myself and Liam as he was back in the boot snaking a beer. The black feller introduced himself as Zafir Djaballah, a civil engineer late from Algeria.
“So”, I said to Zafir, “If I’ve got this straight, you cut a channel and want to line it with rip rap. But the rocks won’t stay put. How deep are you cutting and what’s the size of the channel?”
“Oh, 35’ east-west, 15’ north-south. About 15 meters deep.” He relates.
“And the road metal? Where’s that from?” I ask.
“Arabia”, he tells us, “They quarry it there and transport it here. It’s costly, but that’s about the only option we have.”
Liam looks to Zafir. “Hey, Zafir?”, Liam asks, “Y’ken who this guy is?” as he points to me.
Zafir shakes his head “I just met Dr. Rock.”
“That’s not all who he is”, Liam smiles widely, “That, my friend, is the Motherfucking Pro from Dover! If he can’t fix your little problem, he can damn sure make it go away…”
Zafir looks to me as if to ask: “What the fuck, sir?”
“Well, Zafir, “ I say, “I’m a bit of a dab hand with explosives. This sounds like a really simple problem. Drill a grid of 2 meter centered holes, and prime them with a waterproof explosive. Detonate together electrically and there you go. Channel dug and already filled with angular limestone blocks. Easy-peasy.”
Zafir looks over the water and puzzles and puzzles.
“But sir’, he says, “Where would I find such explosives and such expertise?”
“Well…for starters”, I said, “You could ask me.”
He leads us over to a company trailer, where Liam and I drank beers, smoked cigars and told the superintendent of our plans. The Egyptian superintendent, Qaaid al-Zahra, later ‘Randy’ (Quaid?…never mind) scrutinized all our identification. He was actually very impressed when he came across my Blaster’s credentials.
“Doctor”, Qaaid said, “I do like your plan. The drilling is no problem, the problem is obtaining the explosives.”
“Look, Qaaid”, I said, “Leave that to me. You’re working for a government company, I’m working for a government company. What difference does it make? How long to drill the grid of holes Liam and I laid out?”
“Oh, probably about a week”, Qaaid said.
“OK, how about this?”, I said, “Liam and I will be back out here unless the weather’s being stupid and we’ll set and prime the charges? After which, we’ll make certain everything’s green and blow this little project for you?”
“If you can, Inshallah.”, Qaaid said.
“Even if we’re out of shallah”, I said back to Randy.
That Sunday, after Liam backed us down the 3.6 km or bouncy un-turn-around-able path he drove us out on, I ordered some Kinepax liquid binaries, as it came in easy-to-use 1-meter threaded lengths in various diameters. Qaaid was drilling 3.5” diameter holes, so the 3.00” nominal OD threaded length would be a breeze. I ordered a couple of spools of shock tube, comb connectors, deflectors, and tie-ins, and a 25 kilo box of ‘Elephant Shit’.
We make sure each hole was blown clean with a high-pressure water hose. Since the water here was only 8 meters deep, we could get by with regular lightweight skin diving gear. I could leave my wetsuit, diver’s helmet and all that heavy-duty ice-diving gear at home for this trip.
Liam and I would pre-form the charges, each exactly 6 meters in length, to match the depth of the drilled holes. Individual 1-meter units just screwed together, pin and box style, it was the utmost in simplicity. Rather like Seismogel™, but packed a considerably higher wallop. All told, we would be setting off some 36 nodal points, each 6 meters deep with 6 meters of binary which weighed 5.3 kg/meter.
Turn the crank and we’d be planting approximately 1,145 kilograms or 2,524 pounds of high-energy binary explosive.
Hmph. A new personal record.
Like Guinness even cared.
So, once we got the high sign from Randy that the shot holes had been drilled and cleaned, the next part of the project was up to us.
We were both PADI-certified. Liam had done some oilfield related diving in the North Sea some years ago. I was a veteran of the Ice Wars from the days of Future Passed back in Baja Canada.
The waters here were calm, gin-clear, and warm.
The dives here weren’t work, this was a paid vacation.
I had liberated a trailer for all our pyrotechnics and Liam was elected to use his Prago as the tow vehicle. We bounded our way out to the Liam’s Pass, as we had dubbed it, with a work trailer containing some 2,750 pounds of high powered, binary explosives bouncing behind. I also had all my explosives paraphernalia there as well: new waterproof galvanometer, which in and of itself, is rather the achievement. Pliers, spare batteries, couple pair of blaster’s tools, the usual.
Lia and I had our dive gear in the back of his Prago.
A couple of single tanks, backpacks, regulators, hoses, and a few belts full of divers weights.
These must have been of Islamic origin as they are specifically prohibited by the Bible. Deuteronomy 25:13, “Thou shalt not have on thy belt divers weights, a great and a small.” And Proverbs 20:23, “Divers weights are an abomination unto the LORD; and a false balance is not good.
Why there should be proscriptions against SCUBA gear in ancient, desert-dwelling, shepherding Iron Age writings is what keeps Biblical Scholars up at night.
Although I agree, a false balance underwater keeps your Swimmer’s Ear from healing up.
At the pass, we park and call over for a half-dozen ‘helpers’. They were nominal employees of the company, but more indentured servants. Today, they were going to earn their water wings. We had a couple of large pneumatic rafts that we’d use to transport he charges to their final water resting site but damned if Liam and I are going to swim laps every time we needed to set a new charge.
So, indoctrination and Explosives For Dummies.
Safety first, second and last.
Who here can swim?
You guys can stay. OK, the rest of you blokes, bugger off.
Here’s the deal, Sparky. There are 36 lengths of Kinestix with primers already set. Those go last, as that’s where I tie in to detonate. The rest of the 1-meter long tubes are identical. Pin on one end, box on the other. Thread them together and use a single ‘O-ring’ between each. Snug them up good and tight, but don’t go too crazy. Those are binary liquids, and I’ll give them a good smack with a hammer before they go into the hole. I really only have to do the last one as once initiated, these liquids can mix in milliseconds, but I’m all for safety and doing things right the first time.
OK, so, one raft will carry the 36 initiators, that is, the last bits to go. The other rafts will carry the 5-meter long strings of connected explosives. Liam and I will be down on bottom and you guys just stay up on surface, dog paddling or treading water, but slowly feeding the lengths of tubing down to us. When you reach an end, pop on one of the other lengths, the one with the primer.
To be continued.
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Calm Before the Storm Progress Report 39: The Art of the New Deal ( USA Introduction & First Term )

Hello and welcome to another CBtS Progress Report. Today we finally leave the Iberian Peninsula for good and begin showing USA content. While I’m working on the main US tree, today I want to do 3 things: introduce the 1933 situation, talk about general mechanics, and show the focus tree and events for the first term, ending in January 1937. After the second Inauguration you’ll get a new tree, with economic/political trees custom for each President and shared military and foreign mega-trees. So, let’s begin!
The USA in 1933
In 1933, the United States are suffering the effects of the Great Depression. Herbert Hoover, of the Republican Party, has been unable to fix the crisis and thus he lost the 1932 Presidential Election to the now President-Elect Franklin Delano Roosevelt, a democrat and former Governor of New York. Roosevelt has grand plans for the country, his economic platform, called the “New Deal”, will try to fix the economy, while other minor issues ( Prohibition, the Philippines ) are dealt with. For now, this is the state of US politics on the 1st of January, 1933
If you remember the old teaser, you’ll notice some changes: the Republicans are now MarLib ( Hoover, Landon ) and LibCon ( Taft ), while Democrats remain with the SocCon ( Garner, Dixiecrats) and SocLib ( FDR, New Deal supporters ). The SocDem slot remains up for grabs, as both parties can nominate a SocDem like Dewey or Wallace. Huey Long’s political affiliation is not yet decided, and Republicans may suffer a few more changes. The United States begins with these National Spirits:
The Great Depression: the main economic maluses are here. It is extremely severe, and can be slowly removed with focuses but specially with Congress Acts and Agencies.
Extremely High Unemployment Rate: This spirit represents the whooping 25% unemployment rate the USA had reached, and it will slowly fade away once you pass the NIRA. The speed at which the spirit is removed depends on what laws you pass.
Abysmal Crop Prices: With demand falling, crop prices were greatly reduced as well, creating a crisis in the countryside. As with unemployment, once the AAA is passed it will start to fade away, depending on what stuff you pass.
Slum Proliferation: Represents, in general, the miserable living conditions many Americans had in the period. Can be slowly removed with Acts and other decisions.
Racial Segregation: self-explanatory. Its maluses ( and its small PP bonus) can’t be removed, but can be mitigated by electing Jim Farley in 1940.
Now that you got the starting picture, let’s discuss a bit the USA special mechanics and then we’ll have a look at FDR’s first term!
Congress
Congress. Many would expect a custom interface to be developed, since we have already shown a few for other countries. I was also the dev who designed a new Parliament system, so… Congress from vanilla stays. The base of the system works in two-parties systems, and with improvements it is a good mechanic. Why I kept it? Simply, I wanted to start USA development ASAP, and waiting for a complex GUI for Congress would have delayed release. So what things are new here? The Congress tab has some new things. First of all, all Acts are here. They are not focuses gated behind Congress Support, now you complete the focus and unlock the Act, and once you have enough Support you click and you pass it. There are two kinds of acts:
-Special Acts:: always viewable, unlocked to pass once you complete the relevant focus, big effects, exclusive to one party ( Ex: National Labor Relations Act )
-Mundane Acts: viewable after a certain date, always available to pass, small effects, some of them are bipartisan ( Ex. Marihuana Tax Act )
Both of them require the same amount of support and will remove the same amount ( yes, passing stuff removes support ), so prioritise the special acts and pass the mundane ones when you have nothing to do. To gain support in Congress, you can use lobbying, special events, or complete certain focuses, such as the Neutrality Acts or abolishing Prohibition. This is all dependent on Congress Stance. To sum up, Congress can be Hostile, Neutral or Friendly. This models both your party majority and the willingness of Congress to co-operate with you. It can be increased by winning Midterms and other special things such as Neutrality Acts. It can be decreased by losing midterms and doing things against the Congress, like going interventionist or try to pack the Court. Stance has an impact on the price of lobbying, and the amount of support it takes to pass an Act. A Hostile Congress will be a though nut to crack and you won’t be able to pass many acts, modelling how FDR lost the Congress from 37 onward. It rewards the player for winning midterms and punishes players who do unilateral things such as ditching isolationism.
President Popularity
As I was designing the USA, I thought about how to represent the 1936 Election. Mainly, if Landon should be an option, as it was a complete landslide and historically it wouldn’t make sense. However, it would suck that you are forced to play as FDR all the way to 1941, so I designed a dynamic system that would allow Landon to be an option: President Popularity! President Popularity is a hidden variable that measures, surprise, your popularity as president. But hoi4 already has a party popularity system, you may ask, and yes, it has, but that measures the support for the party and the ideology, while this measures only the support of the President. A President might be unpopular even amongst his own, and likewise you can have a super-popular president across the political spectrum. But how does it work? As I said, Pres Pop is a hidden variable that can increase or decrease based on your actions as President. Wanna go against isolationism? Lose popularity. Reduced unemployment? Gain popularity. The interesting thing is that it is completely hidden. You can’t see it, you don’t see how your actions impact it, etc… You are blind. This adds a layer of political strategic thinking to the first half of the game, not too complex but interesting anyway. Popularity has two main effects: Midterms and Presidential Elections.
When a midterm election arrives, you can decide if the President should get involved in it. If you choose to do so, the midterm_results variable will be 80% determined by your President Popularity and 20% by your Party ( sum of all factions ) Popularity. Less involvement in the midterm means more proportion of ideology and less of presidential popularity. Then, depending on the midterm_results variable you get one of the 4 outcomes, Landslide Victory, Victory, Defeat, and Disastrous Defeat, impacting Congress Support and Congress Stance. Presidential Elections are easier: depending on President Popularity the options will appear in the event. High popularity, as historically in 1936, means that your President will be the only option in the event. Medium popularity will let you choose, while low popularity will prevent re-election.
THE FIRST TERM
Economic & Political Tree
FDR will be inaugurated on March 4, and will allow you to begin the tree. The first section has 7 focuses and deals with the First Hundred Days. When FDR is inaugurated, a mission, requiring you pass all laws unlocked by tree in 100 days, will start. This is trivial: the focuses take overall about 95 days to complete, and you have more than enough support in Congress to pass all the laws, that are:
-Emergency Banking Act: improves Great Depression spirit ( the spirit has 15 stages towards recovery )
-Economy Act: improves Great Depression spirit, takes one military factory away
-Federal Emergency Relief Act: improves Slums spirit ( 4 stages )
-Civilian Conservation Corps Reforestation Relief Act: Adds 5 infrastructure, speeds up unemployment reduction
-National Industrial Recovery Act: begins to lower unemployment
-Agricultural Adjustment Act: begins to increase crop prices
-Tennessee Valley Authority Act: Adds factories, slots and infrastructure to Tennessee
Once you complete each focus, you can go to the decisions tab and pass the corresponding law, getting an event detailing its effects. Unlike the rest of the laws, these don’t take Congress Support when you complete them. Once you complete the First Hundred Days, the rest of the tree will open up. It is divided in two parts. If you want to solve the crisis through harsh spending cuts, go to the tree on the left. The one on the right represents a more spending-focused approach ( historical ) with a special focus on agency creation. The fiscal conservatism path is quicker and you will reach the Social Security and National Housing Acts faster, but is overall weaker than the spending one. Spending will grant more factories and agency creation decisions that provide boosts against the Depression:
Most of them are unlocked by passing the relevant act or by date.
Army Tree ( First Term as the rest of the trees )
Whole military tree
From 1933 to 1937 no significant improvements were done to the US Army, so they shouldn’t really have a tree. However I like to give choices to the player, so if they can overcome Congress opposition ( the first focus requires a super-majority ) you can gain some small equipment and doctrine boosts. Again, not a branch meant to be taken.
Air Tree
The Army Air Corps saw significant developments in these four years, in part thanks to the Air Mail Scandal. Once it happens in 1934 you can bypass the focus and gain more doctrine boosts and experience, while on the other column there are normal tech boosts. A powerful tree, I recommend giving it a go, it can be helpful in keeping your planes up-to-date.
Navy Tree
The Navy Tree is 100% historical. It revolves around the Vinson-Trammel Act, that once passed unlocks a powerful tree that grants 3 naval templates, tech boosts, a lot of dockyards and bases, and finally the Naval Act of 1936, granting dockyards and the now very valuable naval xp.
Foreign Tree
The USA is in the middle of the isolationist period, and the foreign tree for the first term reflects it. As you begin your USA campaign you will find 3 missions to withdraw from Haiti and Nicaragua, and grant independence to the Philippines, forcing you to go through the tree.
The branch of the left lets you grant independence to the Philippines ( through a Congress Act ) and after that you can sign the 1935 ( name depends on in-game year ) Neutrality Act. Passing it will increase Congress Support and PP, useful for your other, economic acts. You can also pass the Reciprocal Trading Act, gaining a couple of factories. On the center, the Good Neighbor Policy will see the USA withdraw from Haiti and Nicaragua, and signing the Montevideo Convention that forbids American involvement in other South and Central American countries domestic politics. In the right branch you can recognize the USSR, and after that you can either demand repayment of tsarist debts ( they will almost always refuse ) or an anti-espionage treaty that will grant a small amount of PP and stability to both countries.
Flavor Events
I like flavor events. They make you feel that you are running a country and not a map, and thus I like to make lots of them. The USA, for the First Term, has around 40 flavor events. For example, I thought about making Prohibition-era crime a spirit, but instead it is represented by 4 flavor events, that fire during 1933 and take 2.5% stability each ( except one ) and 2 event chains that fire during 1934 in which the player has to pick the best strategy to get Bonnie & Clyde and John Dilinger in prision ( or kill them ). Other major event chain during 1934 is the midterm, but I already explained how that works. During 1935, you will have to deal with Huey Long. A quite convoluted event chain, with potential self-harming choices, can lead to Huey’s survival, however, he won’t be able to do anything in our next event that fires in 36, the National Conventions. Mathematically speaking, it is impossible to get such low Popularity that you can’t run for re-election, so FDR will be nominated, and since you play as the Democrats ( for now ) you can only see how the Republicans nominate Landon. Thus we arrive at November, when the Election will happen, however the new President won’t come into power, and be given the new tree, until January 20, as per the 20th Amendment. But that’s a story for other time…
QUESTIONS
Will it be a random chance event if Huey Long survives or not, similar to the Hindenburg in base game, or will the player have some form of involvement with Huey Longs' assassination attempt?
Huey Long’s survival can be guaranteed through a convoluted event chain. It wouldn’t be nice to play all the way till 35 and have him murdered without being able to influence it.
Is Huey Long a Social democrat? And why the odd ball Jim Farley choice?
Atm Long is a SocDem, legacy of previous devs. I’m seriously considering moving him to Authoritarian. Jim Farley ran in the 1940 primary like Garner or Cordell Hull, so if FDR decides not to run you can pick him.
So is the Huey path to the presidency his OTL plan of running 3rd party, getting FDR to lose in 36 and then becoming the Dem nominee in 40? Assuming the OTL path plays out what should the US IC be like by 41? Adding to the above question if i'm doing a historical US run will I be able to actually build up a navy as large as the OTL WW2 USN ended up being?
  1. I decided that in order to get Long, you have to decide not to run as FDR in 1940, opening the primary.
2/3. I’ll try to stay close to history but balance to ensure a good WW2 experience to the other majors is a priority.
Will the US have options to intervene in Latin American politics like in our timeline?
Of course
Is the racial discriminatory policies placed during ww2 going to be represented and is it possible to avoid them? Is the production rates of the US during the war going to be on irl levels or toned down for balance? How involved can the US get in south america, and how is the good neighbour policy, Monroe doctrine and the end of interventions in central america and the Caribbean islands going to be implemented? Can those occupations continue for more interventionist presidents?
  1. They will be represented, but possible avoidances are tbd.
  2. Responded in the last question
  3. Good Neighbor Policy can be ditched once 1937 comes knocking and you get your new shiny foreign tree. Rest you saw in the PR
  4. You can continue the occupations in the first term, eating the maluses, or withdraw and then go back later in the game
Since he was quite pro-Soviet at the time, will Henry Wallace push for deeper cooperation between USA and USSR?
TBD. War and Post-War foreign policies are not designed yet. But probably, I like choices.
How does foreign policy look like? Are there different paths? Will anti-interventionism impact the player if they try to intervene? How will USA support for Republic of China, the UK and the Soviet Union be represented? Will there be different ways of dealing with the great depression?
  1. There are 3 different paths.
  2. Of course.
  3. Passing certain Acts will allow you to send equipment, except with China, where you can send a small amount directly without passing anything.
  4. You saw that FDR has 2 sub-paths, and Landon will have 2 paths as well. By 40 however, it should be mostly over.
Is it possible that Democratic or Republican party gets outsted by some other party? Is there a possibility that POTUS gets impeached (or dies in office) and if it is will acting president get his own focus tree? Will outcomes of assasinations attempts on FDR and Huey Long be random (like Stalin in 2RCW) or will player be capable of influencing them?
  1. No
  2. Only FDR can die in office, otherwise it is making everything complicated for the sake of making everything complicated.
  3. FDR cannot be killed yet, and Long as I said can be avoided.
Will the US be able to reverse the Good Neighbor Policy and return to the Big Stick Diplomacy in the early game?
You can reverse the GNP in the second term.
Will FDR always die in 1945 as per OTL? Is there any chance that he can eek out a little longer? At least until the 1948 election?
It will be a mean_time_to_happen event, but don’t expect him to live past 45.
Will the Great Depression and it’s duration be effected by what president you choose, and if so in what ways? For instance, Will there be a different focus tree for reconstruction, depending on what president you choose? I know, for instance, that Huey and fdr, while both having similar ideas, differed in the fact that Huey was much more extreme in some ways with his reform. Will this be shown in game?
Huey’s focuses will be a slog as Congress tries to block you, and will be more impactful, in the good and the bad sense of the word. The New Deal proved itself successful so Landon will probably have it a little harder.
Are there two parliamentary systems? If so, how will the senate elections be handled? Which countries can America declare war on, and which alliances can they join? Do these diplomatic options change with the presidents?
  1. You saw in the PR, it works like vanilla, and midterms are abstracted, with something similar probably getting attached to Presidential Elections down the line.
  2. The USA can declare war on the usual suspects ( Axis ) and american countries if they adopt “non-friendly” ideologies or otherwise go against your interests. They can join the Allies, their equivalent ( like a french faction ) or form their own. ( Other countries may have focuses to invite the USA to their factions, but that’s not on my end ). Diplomacy is very open, but some paths will be blocked to some Presidents.
So, how is the presidential election of 1948 going to be handled? If a new president gets elected, they won't take office until 1949, which is technically outside of the game's timespan. So will the 1948 election just be ignored, or will there be a small exception to the 1933-1948 timeline to allow the new president to take office?
I’ll make an exception as a prize for playing all the way till 48
Will Henry Wallace be able to do a detente with the ussr? Also will this mod address segregation?
TBD and yes
Will there be primaries to decide who becomes the nominee for each party, or are you limited to a choice between the incumbent and a scripted opponent?
After the second term of a President, you can get primaries. Otherwise you always re-nominate, and you can’t impact the other party primaries.
Can you avoid war with Japan in some way?
That depends more on Japan really. Going full isolationist will greatly reduce the chance of going to war with Japan
So will any news areas be able to be admitted to statehood (by that I mean Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, etc.)?
TBD
Le 2nd American Civil War yes?
Nope
One last thing: we are still looking for devs to help us with the majors: Britain, France, Japan and also the US. It would greatly speed up development and also improve it, because exchange of opinions is always productive, and allows for faster research and design. If you want to help any of the mentioned majors’ development, just fill the application and help the whole community to try out the mod earlier. As usual, next PR will be in an unknown date about an unknown subject ( although slavs will probably be in it…)
Rejected Titles
-How to save your economy in 15 easy steps
-Let's make a New Deal
-Learning your Alphabet Agencies
-A Huey Long way to go
-CBTS PR with WPA , CCC and AAA
submitted by SanMarinoStronk to CBTSmod [link] [comments]

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UK election 2019: the winners and losers - YouTube

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